Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği İthalat Üzerinde Etkili midir? Panel Veri Analizinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Ekonomide belirsizlik, dış ticaret ve döviz kuru gibi makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerinde etkili olabilmektedir. Küreselleşmenin ilerlemesi ve ekonomilerin karşılıklı bağımlılığının artmasıyla birlikte uluslararası ticaret, ekonomide yaşanan belirsizlik ortamından güçlü bir şekilde etkilenmektedir. Literatürde ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin dış ticaret üzerindeki etkilerine ilişkin tam olarak bir görüş birliği bulunmamakla birlikte, yapılan çalışmalar sonucunda ortaya çıkan genel görüş, belirsizliğin ticaret akımlarını baskıladığı yönündedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin 18 ülkenin ithalatı üzerindeki etkisini, 1997-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel veri teknikleri ile analiz etmektir. Analizde ele alınan ülke grubu verilere erişim sıkıntısı olmaması göz önünde bulundurularak seçilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelenen dönemde ele alınan tüm ülkelerde ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin ithalatı negatif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği, İthalat, Panel Veri Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: C33, D81, F14

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği
• İthalat
• Panel Veri Analizi

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Import? Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

Öz

Uncertainty in the economy can have an impact on macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade and exchange rates. With the advancement of globalization and the increasing interdependence of economies, international trade is strongly affected by the uncertainty in the economy. Although there is no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of economic policy uncertainty on foreign trade, the general view emerged as a result of studies is that uncertainty suppresses trade flows. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the imports of 18 countries by using panel data techniques using annual data for the period 1997-2019. The country group discussed in the analysis was chosen considering the lack of access to data. The results show that economic policy uncertainty affects imports negatively in all countries examined in the period under review. Key Words: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Import, Panel Data Analysis JEL Classification: C33, D81, F14

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Policy Uncertainty
• Import
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 131, No. 4, 1593-1636.
2. Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vo. 98, No. 1, 85-106.
3. Breusch, T. S., and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Spesification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 47, No. 1, 239-253.
4. Dixit, A. (1989). Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 97, No. 3, 620–638.
5. Eberhardt, M., and Bond, S. (2009). Cross-Section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper No. 17692, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17692/ Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2021
6. Greenland, A., Ion, M., and Lopresti, J. (2019). Exports, Investment and Policy Uncertainty. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, Vol. 52, No. 3, 1248-1288.
7. Handley, K. (2014). Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 94, No. 1, 50–66.
8. Handley, K., and Limao, N. (2015). Trade and Investment Under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 7, No. 4, 189-222.

9. Hassan, S., Shabi, S., and Choudhry, T. (2018). Asymmetry, Uncertainty and International Trade, Swansea University, School of Management, https://rahwebdav.swan.ac.uk/repec/pdf/WP2018-24.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2021
10. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2011). World Economic Outlook, September 2011: Slowing Growth, Rising Risks. International Monetary Fund.
11. Jia, F., Huang, X., Xu, X., and Sun, H. (2020). The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Export: A Gravity Model Approach. Prague Economic Papers, Vol. 29, No. 5, 600-622.
12. Krol, R. (2018). Does Uncertainty over Economic Policy Harm Trade, Foreign Investment, and Prosperity?. Foreign Investment, and Prosperity. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3169563 Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2021
13. Li, J. (2021). Economic Policy Uncertainty, Contracting Frictions and Imports Sourcing Decisions. Economics Letters, Vol. 200.
14. Li, Y., and Li, J. (2021). How Does China’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect the Sustainability of Its Net Grain Imports?. Sustainability, Vol. 13, No. 12, 1-21.
15. Mawusi, C. (2020). Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade: A Gravity Model Approach. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-129375/v1 Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2021.
16. McCoskey, S. and Kao, C. (1998). A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration in Panel Data. Econometric Reviews, Vol. 17, No. 1, 57-84.
17. Novy, D. and Taylor, A. M. (2014). Trade and Uncertainty. NBER Working Paper Series No 19941, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19941/w19941.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2021
18. Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 22, No. 2, 265-312.
19. Pesaran, M. H. (2021). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panels. Empirical Economics, Vol. 60, 13-50.
20. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross‐Section Independence. The Econometrics Journal, Vol. 11, No. 1, 105-127.
21. Pesaran, M. H., and Yagamata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 142, No. 1, 50-93.
22. Sharma, C., and Paramati, S. R. (2021). Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence from India. Economic Modelling, Vol. 94, 139-149.
23. Tam, P. S. (2018). Global Trade Flows and Economic Policy Uncertainty. Applied Economics, Vol. 50, No. 34–35, 3718–3734 Westerlund, J., and Edgerton, D. L. (2007). A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test. Economics Letters, Vol. 97, No. 3, 185-190