TCMB’nin Para Politikası Duruşunun Alternatif Açıklaması: Parasal Durum Endeksi(MCI)

Abstract

Keywords

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TCMB’nin Para Politikası Duruşunun Alternatif Açıklaması: Parasal Durum Endeksi (MCI)

Abstract

İktisadi birimlerin beklentilerinin bilinmesi, politika otoriteye iktisadi ve siyasi kararlar karşısında tepkilerin değerlendirebilmesini sağlar. Bu nedenle, özellikle faiz oranının bir araç olarak kullanıldığı durumlarda, TCMB dahil olmak üzere tüm dünya merkez bankaları kamuoyu beklentilerini öğrenmek ve bu beklentileri tekrar kullanarak insanları etkilemek istemektedir. Öte yandan, ekonominin istikrarı için, merkez bankaları daha esnek ve etkin politik enstrümanlar ile reel değişkenleri de hesaba katmak istemektedirler. Üstelik reel değişkenler toplumun refahı ile doğrudan ilişkilidir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, son 10 yılda TCMB’nin para politikası duruşuna ilişkin politika kurallarının, büyüme ve fiyatlar genel seviyesini de etkileyen toplam talebi göz önünde bulundurup bulundurmadığını incelemektir. Bu amaçla, TCMB’den alınan veriler ARDL yöntemi ile ekonometrik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre TCMB resmi söyleminin aksine son 10 yılda Parasal Durum Endeksi’ni (MCI) izlediğini göstermektedir

Keywords

• Para politikası, Parasal Durum Endeksi (MCI), TCMB, ARDL

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45. Serial Correlation = 0.68799[0.611]
46. Functional Form= 6.6471[0.18]
47. Heteroscedasticity= 2.8754[0.100]
48. Normality= 2.3676[0.306]
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50. Plot of Cumulative Sum of Recursive Residuals
51. The straight lines represent critical bounds at 5% significance level 2011Q2
52. Plot of Cumulative Sum of Squares of Recursive Residuals
53. The straight lines represent critical bounds at 5% significance level 2011Q2