Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneğinde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, yabancı doğrudan yatırımların istihdam üzerindeki etkileri, Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan için, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi yardımıyla, 19802011 dönemi verileriyle analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre; seriler düzey değerlerinde durağan değildir ve seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır. Uzun dönem analizi sonucuna göre; yabancı doğrudan yatırımlardaki %10 oranındaki artış istihdamı Türkiye’de %0.3 oranında azaltırken, Çin ve Hindistan'da sırasıyla %0.3 ve %0.2 oranında arttırmaktadır.

Keywords

• Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımlar, İstihdam, Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi.

Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneğinde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Abstract

In this study effects of foreign direct investment on employment, analyzed with multiple structural breaks unit root test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009), multiple structural breaks cointegration test of Maki (2012) and dynamic ordinary least squares method for Turkey, China and India by using 1980-2011 period data. According to the empirical findings; series are nonstationary in level and there is a cointegration relationship between series. As a result of the long run analysis; 10% increase of foreign direct investment leads to a decreases on the employment in Turkey by 0.3%while decreases in China and India respectively by 0.3% and 0.2%.

Keywords

• Foreign Direct Investment, Employment, Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks.

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