Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneğinde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, yabancı doğrudan yatırımların istihdam üzerindeki etkileri, Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan için, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi yardımıyla, 19802011 dönemi verileriyle analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre; seriler düzey değerlerinde durağan değildir ve seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır. Uzun dönem analizi sonucuna göre; yabancı doğrudan yatırımlardaki %10 oranındaki artış istihdamı Türkiye’de %0.3 oranında azaltırken, Çin ve Hindistan'da sırasıyla %0.3 ve %0.2 oranında arttırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımlar, İstihdam, Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi.

Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örneğinde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Öz

In this study effects of foreign direct investment on employment, analyzed with multiple structural breaks unit root test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009), multiple structural breaks cointegration test of Maki (2012) and dynamic ordinary least squares method for Turkey, China and India by using 1980-2011 period data. According to the empirical findings; series are nonstationary in level and there is a cointegration relationship between series. As a result of the long run analysis; 10% increase of foreign direct investment leads to a decreases on the employment in Turkey by 0.3%while decreases in China and India respectively by 0.3% and 0.2%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment, Employment, Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks.

Kaynakça

1. AKTAR, İsmail ve Levent ÖZTÜRK (2009), “Can Unemployment be Cured by Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey?”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 27, 203-211.
2. ANDERSEN, Palle ve Philippe HAINAUT (1998), “Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in the Industrial Countries”, BIS Working Paper, No: 61.
3. AUDET, Kristelleme M. ve Robert GAGNÉ (2010), “Openess to Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity in Canada”, Productivity and Prosperity In Quebec, October, 1-19.
4. BAI, Jushan ve Pierre PERRON (2003), “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
5. BARRELL, Ray ve Nigel PAIN (1997), “Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change and Economic Growth Within Europe”, Te Economic Journal, 107(445), 1770-1786.
6. BARROS, Pedro P. ve Luis M. CABROL (2000), “Competing For Foreign Direct Investment”, Review of International Economics, 8(2), 360-371.
7. BLOMSTRÖM, Magnus, Gunnar FORS ve Robert E. LIPSEY (1997), “Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: Home Country Experience in the United States and Sweden”, NBER Working Papers, No: 6205.
8. BORENSZTEIN, Eduardo, Jose De GREGORIA ve Jong-Wha LEE, (1998), “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Afect Economic Growth?”, Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115-138.

9. BOZKURT, Hilal ve Gülten DURSUN (2006), “Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri ile Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırım Akımları Arasındaki Etkileşim: Türkiye İçin Kointegrasyon Analizi, 1980-2004”, Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management, 2, 37-49.
10. CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, Josep Lluís ve Andreu SANSO (2006), “Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623-6
11. CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, Josep Lluís, Dukpa KIM ve Pierre PERRON (2009), “GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, 25, 1754-1792.
12. ÇEŞTEPE, Hamza ve Şevket TÜYLÜOĞLU (2006), “Yabancı Yaptırımlar Yoluyla Teknoloji Transferi: İrlanda Örneğinden Türkiye için Dersler”, Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 61(2), 45-62.
13. DELOITTE (2011), “Türkiye Otomotiv Sektörü Raporu”, http://www.sanayi.gov.tr /Files/Documents/otomotiv-sektoru-raporu-2-06042012151728.pdf.html, (10.12.2012).
14. EKİNCİ, Aykut (2011), “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme ve İstihdama Etkisi: Türkiye Uygulaması (1980-2010)”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2), 71-9
15. ESTEVE, Vequena ve Francisco REQUENA (2006), “A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presenceof Structural Change”, International Journal of the Economics of Business, 13(1), 111-128.
16. FU, Xiaolan ve V.N. BALASUBRAMANYAM (2005), “Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: The Case of China”, World Economy, 28(4), 607-625.
17. FUNG, Michael Kayiu, Jinli ZENG ve Li Zing ZHU (1999), “Foreign Capital, Urban Unemployment and Economic Growth”, Review of International Economics, 7(4), 65166
18. GÖÇER, İsmet, Şahin BULUT ve Mehmet Metin DAM (2012), “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansına Etkileri: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 3(2), 21-40.
19. GREENAWAY, David, Robert C. HINE ve Peter WRIGHT (1999), “An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Trade on Employment in the United Kingdom”, European Journal of Political Economy, 15, 485-500.
20. GREGORY, Allan W. ve Bruce E. HANSEN (1996), “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
21. HATEMI-J, Abdulnasser (2008), “Tests For Cointegration With Two Unknown Regime Shifts With an Application to Financial Market Integration”, Empirical Economics, 35, 497-505.
22. HUNYA, Gabor ve Ingo GEISHECKER (2005), Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe, Research Reports, No: 321.
23. JAVORCIK, Beata Smarzynska (2004), “Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers through Backward Linkages”, The American Economic Review, 94(3), 605-627.
24. JAYARAMAN, Tiru K. (1998), “Foreign Direct Investment as An Alternative to Foreign Aid to South Pacific Island Countries”, Journal of the South Pacific Society, 21(3), 29-44.
25. KAMACI, Ayşe Merve (2009), “Makedonya Cumhuriyeti'nde Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımlar ve İş Ortamı”, 2. Uluslararası Balkan Kongresi, s. 329-333.
26. KARAGÖZ, Kadir (2007), “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının İstihdama Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi, İnönü Üniversitesi, 24-25 Mayıs, Malatya.
27. KAYMAK, Hasan (2005), “Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımları Artırmak İçin Teşvikler Gerekli ve/veya Yeterli mi?”, Maliye Dergisi, 149, 74-104.
28. LEE, Junsoo ve Mark C. STRAZICICH (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089. LESHER, Molly ve Sebastien MIROUDOT (2008), Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers and Their Interrelationships with Trade, OECD Investment Policy Perspectives, http://www.oecd.org/tad/benefitlib/41457019.pdf. html (15.05.2012).
29. LUMSDAINE, Robin L. ve David H. PAPELL (1997), “Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 212-218.
30. MAKI, Daiki (2012), “Tests For Cointegration Allowing For an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
31. MILNER, Chris ve Peter WRIGHT (1998), “Modeling Labour Market Adjustment to Trade Liberalization in an Industrializing Economy”, Economic Journal, 108, 509-528.
32. NG, Serena ve Pierre PERRON (2001), “Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554.
33. PEKER, Osman ve İsmet GÖÇER (2010), “Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların Türkiye’deki İşsizliğe Etkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 10(4), 1187-1194.
34. PERRON, Pierre (1989), “The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(2), 1361-1401.
35. PERRON, Pierre (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables”, Journal of Econometrics, 80, 355-385.
36. PRASANNA, N. (2010), “Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Export Performance in India”, J Soc Sci, 24(1), 65-71.
37. RUANE, Frances ve Ali UĞUR (2005), “Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers in Irish Manufacturing Industry: Evidence from Plant Level Panel Data”, International Journal of the Economics of Business, 12(1), 53-66.
38. SARAY, M. Ozan (2011), “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar-İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Maliye Dergisi, 161, 381-403.
39. STOCK, James H. ve Mark W. WATSON (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
40. SUN, Haishun (1996), “Direct Foreign Investment and Linkage Efects: The Experience of China”, Asian Economies, 25(1), 5-28.
41. SUN, Haishun (1998), “Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 19791996”, The World Economy, 21(5), 675-694.
42. VERGIL, Hasan ve Nejla AYAŞ 2009), “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlarının İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 275, 89-114.
43. WESTERLUND, Joakim ve David EDGERTON (2006), Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks, Lund University, Department of Economics, Working Papers, No: 13.
44. WOODWARD, David (2001), The Next Crisis? Direct and Equity Investment in Developing Countries, Diane Pub Co Press, New York.
45. YAYLI, Şifa ve M. Kemal DEĞER (2012), “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar veİstihdam Arası İlişkiler: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Dinamik Panel Veri Nedensellik Analizleri (1991-2008)”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49(568), 43-63.
46. ZHANG, K.H. (2005), “How Does FDI Affect a Host Country’s Export Performance? The Case of China”, International Conference of WTO, China and the Asian Economies, III. Xi’an, 25-26 June, China.
47. ZHAO, Laixun (1998), “The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Wages and Employment”, Oxford Economic Papers, 50, 284-301.
48. ZHU, Gangti ve Kong Yam TAN (2000), “Foreign Direct Investment and Labor Productivity: New Evidence from China as the Host”, Thunderbird International Business Review, 42(5), 507-5
49. ZIVOT, Eric ve Donald W.K. ANDREWS (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the OilPrice Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.