Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Dış ticaret hadleri ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki iktisat literatüründe tartışmalı bir konu olmuştur. Bu tartışma Harberger (1950) ve Laursen ve Metzler’in (1950) çalışmalarından bu yana süregelmektedir. Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) etkisi olarak bilinen ve üzerindeki tartışmaların sürdüğü bu teorik görüş, dış ticaret hadlerindeki bir bozulmanın, dış ticaret dengesinde de bir bozulmaya yol açacağnı savunmaktadır. Dış ticaret hadlerindeki değişmelerin cari denge üzerindeki etkisi; dış ticaret hadlerinde yaşanan şokların süresi, bu değişmelerin beklenir olup olmadığı ve bu şokların hangi iktisadi kanalları kullanarak cari dengeyi etkilediği gibi faktörlere bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada 1982:1-2015:2 döneminde Türkiye’de hem mal ticaret hadleri hem de gelir ticaret hadlerindeki değişmelerin uzun dönem ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi ile araştırılmaktadır. Bu dönemde gelir ticaret hadlerinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru aynı yönde pozitif bir ilişki bulunurken, mal ticaret hadlerinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru negatif yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Dış Ticaret Hadleri,Dış Ticaret Dengesi,HLM etkisi,ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: An Econometrıc Analysıs On Turkısh Economy

Abstract

In literatüre of economics, the relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade has always been a topic of debate. According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. In economic theory, the relationship between the changes in terms of trade and the current balance depends on many factors. These are the duration of the shocks experienced in the terms of trade, temporary or permanent occurrence and these changes are expected or unexpected. This study investigates the relationship between terms of trade and trade balance in Turkey It employs commodity terms of trade and income terms of trade using a time series data set for the period 1982–2015 In this period, we investigate whether the HLM hypothesis is valid for the Turkish economy by the ARDL bounds test. The results show that there is a long-run and positive relationship from income terms of trade to trade balance and negative cousality relationship from commodity terms of trade to trade balance.

Keywords

• Terms of Trade,Trade Balance,HLM Effect,ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

References

1. Backus, D. K. (1993) “Interpreting Comovements in the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade”, Journal of International Economics, 34 (3-4):375-387.
2. Cashin, P. ve J. McDermott, (1998) “Terms of Trade and the Current Account”, IMF Working Paper No. 177
3. Duncan, R. (2003) “The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function, Approach”, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers No. 250
4. Harberger, A.C. (1950) “Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 58, No. 1. 47-60
5. Idrees, T. ve S. Tufail (2012) “The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan”, The Lahore Journal of Economics, 17: 2; 87-110
6. Kent, C. (1997) “The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: A Panel-data Study”, Reserve Bank of Australia
7. Kıpıcı, A.N. (1996) “Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations”, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Discussion Paper, No:9615, 1-13
8. Laursen, S. ve L. A. Metzler (1950) “Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 32, No. 4; 281-299

9. Mendoza, E.G. (1995) “The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations”, International Economic Review, Vol. 36, No. 1, 101-137
10. Misztal, P. (2010) “The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect.Theory and Practice in Poland”, The Romanian Economic Journal, XIII, no. 38, 129-146
11. Obstfeld, M. (1982) “Aggregate spending and the terms of trade: Is there a Laursen-Metzler Effect?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97, 251–270.
12. Oktar, S. ve L. Dalyancı (2012) “Dış Ticaret Hadlerinin Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Marmara Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B. Dergisi, sayı:2,1-18
13. Otto, G. (2003) “Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade:there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 155–184
14. Persson, T. ve Svensson, L.E.O. ( 1985) “Current account dynamics and the terms of trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler two generations later”, Journal of Political Economy, 93 (1), 43–65.
15. Pesaran, H.M.,Y. Shin ve R.J. Smith (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics,16, 289-326
16. Sachs, J. (1981) “The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970’s.”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1: 201-68.
17. Sen, P. ve S. J. Turnovsky (1989) “Deterioration of the Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation: A Re-examination of the Laursen-Metzler Effect.”, Journal of International Economics, 26: 227-250.
18. Serven, L. (1999) “Terms-of-trade Shocks and Optimal Investment: Another Look at the Laursen-Metzler Effect.”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 18: 337-65.
19. Svensson, L.E.O. ve Razin, A. (1983) “Terms of trade and the current account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, 97–125.
20. Tornell, A. ve P. Lane (1994) “Are Windfalls a Curse? A Non-representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy”, NBER Working Paper, 4839 Wong Hock, T. (2006) “Is there a Long-run Relationship Between Trade Balance and Terms of Trade? The case of Malaysia”, Applied Economics Letters, 13, 307–311
21. Yamak, R. ve A. Korkmaz (2006) “Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Etkisi: Literatür ve Türkiye Örneği”, Atatürk Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B. Dergisi, cilt:20,s:1,57-69