Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Öz

Dış ticaret hadleri ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki iktisat literatüründe tartışmalı bir konu olmuştur. Bu tartışma Harberger (1950) ve Laursen ve Metzler’in (1950) çalışmalarından bu yana süregelmektedir. Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) etkisi olarak bilinen ve üzerindeki tartışmaların sürdüğü bu teorik görüş, dış ticaret hadlerindeki bir bozulmanın, dış ticaret dengesinde de bir bozulmaya yol açacağnı savunmaktadır. Dış ticaret hadlerindeki değişmelerin cari denge üzerindeki etkisi; dış ticaret hadlerinde yaşanan şokların süresi, bu değişmelerin beklenir olup olmadığı ve bu şokların hangi iktisadi kanalları kullanarak cari dengeyi etkilediği gibi faktörlere bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada 1982:1-2015:2 döneminde Türkiye’de hem mal ticaret hadleri hem de gelir ticaret hadlerindeki değişmelerin uzun dönem ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi ile araştırılmaktadır. Bu dönemde gelir ticaret hadlerinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru aynı yönde pozitif bir ilişki bulunurken, mal ticaret hadlerinden dış ticaret dengesine doğru negatif yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış Ticaret Hadleri,Dış Ticaret Dengesi,HLM etkisi,ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: An Econometrıc Analysıs On Turkısh Economy

Öz

In literatüre of economics, the relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade has always been a topic of debate. According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. In economic theory, the relationship between the changes in terms of trade and the current balance depends on many factors. These are the duration of the shocks experienced in the terms of trade, temporary or permanent occurrence and these changes are expected or unexpected. This study investigates the relationship between terms of trade and trade balance in Turkey It employs commodity terms of trade and income terms of trade using a time series data set for the period 1982–2015 In this period, we investigate whether the HLM hypothesis is valid for the Turkish economy by the ARDL bounds test. The results show that there is a long-run and positive relationship from income terms of trade to trade balance and negative cousality relationship from commodity terms of trade to trade balance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Terms of Trade,Trade Balance,HLM Effect,ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Kaynakça

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