OECD Ülkelerinde Göç, İşsizlik ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Panel ARDL Tekniği ile İncelenmesi

Abstract

Ekonomik büyümeye tipik olarak göç de eşlik etmektedir. Büyüme sürecinde her iki faktör de büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma, hedef ülkenin göç ve ekonomik koşulları arasındaki etkileşimini ampirik olarak incelemektedir.
Bu doğrultuda çalışma, 1990-2016 dönemi 19 OECD ülkesi için panel ARDL tekniği ile incelenmiştir. Kısa ve uzun dönem olmak üzere iki sonuç elde edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, göç akışlarının uzun dönemde ev sahibi ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesine katkısının olduğunu göstermiştir. Kısa dönem sonuçları ise, göç akışlarının büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Diğer yandan beklenildiği üzere uzun dönemde, istihdamdaki artışlar kişi başı GSYH’yi artırırken işsizlik oranlarındaki her bir artış kişi başı GSYH’yi azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca göçün, ev sahibi ülkelerin ekonomik koşullarından etkilendiğini de söylemek mümkündür.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Uluslararası Göç, Büyüme, İşsizlik, Panel ARDL, OECD
JEL Sınıflandırması: F22, O47, B22, C33, O50

Keywords

• International Migration,Growth,Unemployment,Panel ARDL

Investigation of The Relationship Between Migration, Unemployment and Growth in the OECD Countries with Panel ARDL Technique

Abstract

Economic growth is typically accompanied by migration. Both factors are great important in the growth process. This study empirically examines the interaction between migration and economic conditions of the target country.
In the period of 1990-2016, the panel data was analyzed by panel ARDL technique by using he annual data set in 19 OECD countries. Short and long term results were obtained. The long-term results show that migration flows contribute to the economic growth of host countries. Short-term results showed that migration flows had a negative impact on growth. On the other hand, as expected, in the long run, while the increases in employ ment increase the GDP per capita, each increase in unemployment rate decreases GDP per capita. It is also possible to say that the migration is affected by the economic conditions of the host countries.
Key Words: International Migration, Growth, Unemployment, Panel ARDL, OECD
JEL Classification: F22, O47, B22, C33, O50

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