Bütçe Açıklarının Ampirik Analizi

Year 2012, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 163 - 178, 01.03.2012

Osman Peker İsmet Göçer

Abstract

Keywords

-

Bütçe Açıklarının Ampirik Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği, sınır testi yaklaşımıyla, 1987-2010 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Üç alt dönem ve tam dönemin araştırıldığı çalışmada şu ampirik bulgulara ulaşılmıştır: bütçe açıklarının; 1987:01-1994:03, 1994:04-2001:01 ve 1987:01-2010:12 dönemlerinde zayıf formda, 2001:02-2010:12 döneminde ise güçlü formda sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeline göre yapılan nedensellik analizinde ise, bütün dönemlerde, bütçe gelirleri, bütçe harcamalarının nedeni çıkmıştır

Keywords

Bütçe Açığı, Sürdürülebilirlik, Eş-bütünleşme, Türkiye

References

• AKÇAY, O. C., C. E. ALPER ve S. ÖZMUCUR, (2001), “Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence From Turkey (1970-2000)”, Boğaziçi University Department of Economics, WP, 12, İstanbul.
• ANAND, R. ve Van S. WIJNBERGEN, (1989), “Inflation and Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with An Application to Turkey”, World Bank Economic Review, 3(1): 17-38.
• ARESTIS, P., A. CIPOLLINI ve B. FATTOUH, (2004), “Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit”, Economic Inquiry, 42(2): 214-222.
• ARGHYROU, M.G. and K.B. LUINTEL, (2003), “Government Solvency: Revisiting Some EMU Countries”, Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, 8: 23-51.
• AZGÜN, S. ve M. TAŞDEMİR, (2006), “Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: Zamanlararası Borçlanma Kısıtının Testi (1980-2004)”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 20 (2): 35-47.
• BLEJER, M.I. ve A. CHEASTY, (1991), “The Measurament of Fiscal Deficts: Analiticaland Methodological Issues”, Journal of Economic Literature, 34: 1644.
• BUITER, Willem H., (1985), "A Fiscal Theory of Hyperdeflations? Some Surprising Monetarist Arithmetic", NBER Technical Working Papers, 52.
• DICKEY, D. ve W. A. FULLER, (1979), “Distribution of The Estimates For Autoregressive Time Series With a UnitRoot”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
• ENDERS, W., (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, 1st edition, Wiley, New York.
• ENDERS, W., (1996), Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song Inc.
• ENGLE, R. ve C.W.J.GRANGER, (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276.
• FOUNTAS, Stilianos ve Jyh-Lin WU, (1996), Are The Greek Budget Defgicits too Large?”, Applied Economics Letters, 3: 487-490.
• GRANGER, C.W.J., (1969), “Investigating Causal Relation By Econometric And Cross- Sectional Method”, Econometrica, 37: 424–438.
• GRANGER, C. W. J. ve P. NEWBOLD, (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2 (2): 111-120.
• GRANGER, C.W.J., (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39:199-211.
• GUJARATI, D, N., (1999), Basic Econometrics, McGrawHill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3 rd Edition, İstanbul.
• HAKKIO, Craig S.,and Mark RUSH, (1991), “Is the Budget Defict Too Large?”, Economic Inquiry, 29: 429-445.
• HAMILTON, J. ve M. FLAVIN, (1986), "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing", American Economic Review, 76: 808- 819.
• HAUG, A. A., (1991), “Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 9:97-101.
• INTERGENERATIONAL REPORT, (2002), Treasurer of Common Wealth of Australia, Budget Paper, No:5, http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/, (18.12.2010).
• JHA, R. ve A. SHARMA, (2004), “Structural Breaks and Unit Roots: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit”, Public Finance Review, 2(2): 196-219.
• JOHANSEN, S., (1988), “Statistical Analysis of CointegrationVectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamicand Control, (12): 231-254.
• JOHANSEN, S. ve K. JUSELIUS,(1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 52: 169-210.
• JOHNSTON, J. ve J. DINARDO, (1997), Econometric Methods, Fourth Edition, Mc Graw-Hill Companies, United States.
• KAMAS, L ve J. P. JOYCE, (1993), “Money, Incomeand Prices Under Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidencefrom Causality Testsand VARs”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4): 747-768.
• KOO, C. M., (2002), “Fiscal Sustainability in the Wake of the Economic Crisis in Korea”, Journal of Asian Economics, 3(5): 659-669.
• KREMERS, J., (1989), "U.S. Federal Indebtedness and the Conduct of Fiscal Policy", Journal of Monetary Economics, 23: 219-238.
• MAKRYDAKIS, S., E. T. ve A. BALFOUSSIAS, (1999), “ Policy Regime Changes and the Long–Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece”, Economic Modelling, 6: 71-86.
• MANKIW, G., (2010), “What’s Sustainable About This Budget?”, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/economy/14view.html (20/04/2011).
• NARAYAN, P. K. ve S. NARAYAN, (2004), “Estimating Incomeand Price Elasticities of Imports For Fiji in a Cointegration Framework”, Economic Modelling, 22: 423-438.
• ÖZDEMİR, K. A., (2004), “Public Debt in Turkey”, TCMB, Research Department, WP, 11.
• ÖZMEN, E. ve Ç. İ. KOĞAR, (1998), “Sustainability of Budget Deficits in Turkey with Structural Shift”, METU Studies in Development, 25(1): 107-127.
• PAYNE, R., (1996), "Announcement Effects and Seasonality in Intra-day Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility", London School of Economics, DP, 238.
• PAYNE, J. E., M. HASSAN ve M. CAK, (2008), “Turkish Budget Deficit Sustainability and The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus”, Applied Economics , (7): 823-830.
• PESARAN, M., Y. SHIN, ve R. J. SMITH, (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
• PANAGIOTIS, P., T. EMMANOUIL, A. L. ATHANASIOS ve K. CONSTANTINOS, (2009), “ On the Dynamics of the Greek Twin Deficits: Empirical evidence Over the Period 1960- 2007”, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 2(2):9-32.
• QUINTOS, C. E., (1995), “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13: 409–417.
• ROBERDS, W., (1991), "Implications of Expected Present Value Budget Balance: Application to Postwar U.S. Data", In Rational Expectations Econometrics, Edited by Lars Hansonand Thomas Sargent. Boulder: Westview Press.
• RUBIO, O. B., C. D. ROLDÁN ve V. ESTEVE, (2006), “Is The Budget Defict Sustainable When Fiscal Policy is Nonlinear? The case of Spain”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28: 596–608.
• SRIWARDANA, K. M. M., (1998), “An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka”, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, 27: 80-111.
• ŞEN, H., İ. SAĞBAŞ ve Abdullah KESKİN, (2010), “Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğin Analizi: 1975-2007”, Maliye Dergisi, 158. TCMB., (2011), “Türkiye’nin Güçlü Ekonomiye Geçiş Programı”, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/duyuru/eko_program/program.pdf, (14.08.2011).
• TREHAN, B. Ve C. E. WALSH, (1988),"Common Trends, the Government Budget Constraint and Revenue Smoothing", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 425-444.
• TREHAN, B. ve C. E. WALSH, (1991). "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 23(2): 206-23.
• WILCOX, D. W., (1989), "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21: 291-306.