Göçmen Gönderilerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerine Etkisi: Seçilmiş BDT Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Year 2018, Volume: 25 Issue: 3, 695 - 712, 28.12.2018

Doğan Uysal , Şerife Özşahin , Gülbahar Üçler

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.457473

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Çalışmak
amacıyla gittiği ülkede bir yıldan daha uzun süre kalan göçmenlerin anavatanlarındaki
ailelerine gönderdikleri para olarak tanımlanan göçmen havaleleri, gelişmekte
olan ülkelerin önemli sermaye kaynaklarından biridir. IMF Ödemeler Dengesi ve
Uluslararası Yatırım Pozisyonu Klavuzu’nda (BPM6) “çalışanlara tazminat ve
kişisel tasarruflar” olmak üzere iki ana bileşene ayrılan göçmen havalelerinin
hacmi, 2000’li yıllarla birlikte ciddi artış kaydetmiştir. Göçmen gönderileri;
doğrudan yabancı yatırım, dış borçlanma veya dış yardımlara kıyasla daha
istikrarlı bir yapıya sahip olmasından dolayı özellikle kronik dış açık sorunu
yaşayan ülkelerin bu açığı finansmanında güvenilir bir kaynak olarak kabul
edilmektedir. 2015 yılı Dünya Bankası verilerine göre, dünya genelindeki yaklaşık
600 milyar $ göçmen gönderisinin yaklaşık %75’i gelişmekte olan ülkelere doğru
akmaktadır. En fazla göçmen gönderisi alan ülkeler Hindistan, Çin, Filipinler
ve Meksika iken göçmen gönderilerinin GSYİH içindeki payı dikkate alındığında Kırgızistan,
Nepal, Tacikistan ve Moldova gibi küçük ve yoksul ülkeler ilk sıralara
yerleşmektedir.

Bu
çalışma göçmen gönderilerinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini ileri panel
veri analiz teknikleri ile incelemekte ve ilgili literatüre ampirik açıdan
katkı sağlamayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışma kapsamında Bağımsız Devletler
Topluluğu üyesi 6 ülkenin 2002-2016 dönemi verileri kullanılarak dış ticaret
açıklarının finansmanında göçmen havalelerinin etkisi araştırılmıştır. İncelenen
zaman dilimi ve ülke seçimi, verilerin kesintisiz olması ve erişilebilirliği
dikkate alınarak belirlenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda öncelikle panelde yer alan
ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı araştırılmış ve yapılan
analiz ile paneli oluşturan ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımsızlığı olduğu
tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulguya dayanarak değişkenlerin durağanlık analizi ve uzun
dönem katsayı tahmininde birinci nesil yöntemler kullanılmıştır. Pesaran, Shin
ve Smith (1999) PMG (Pooled Mean Group) tahmincisi ile ulaşılan uzun dönem
katsayılar göçmen gönderilerinin dış ticaret dengesini Azerbaycan’da pozitif, Moldova
ve Tacikistan’da negatif yönde etkileyen anlamlı bir değişken olduğunu
göstermiştir

Keywords

Göçmen gönderileri, Dış ticaret Dengesi

References

• Acosta, P., P. Fajnzylber and J.H. Lopez, 2007, “The ımpact of remittances on poverty and human capital: evidence from latin american household surveys”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,4247, WPS4247.
• Adams, R.H., 1991, “The effect of ınternational remittances on poverty, ınequality and development in rural Egypt”, Research Report 86, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC.
• Adams, R.H. and J. Page, 2003, “International migration remittances and poverty in developing countries”, Policy Research Working Paper, No:3179, Washington, DC.
• Ahlburg, D.A, 1996, “Remittances and the ıncome distribution in Tonga”, Population Research and Policy Review, 15(4), 391-400.
• Amuedo-Dorantes, C. and S. Pozo, 2004, “Workers’remittances and the real exchange rate: a paradox of gifts”, World Development, 32(8), 1407-1417.
• Acharya, C. P., and Leon-Gonzalez, R. 2013, “The impact of remittance on poverty and inequality: A micro-simulation study for Nepal”, Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(9), 1061-1080.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Wang, Y. 2006, “The J-curve: China versus her trading partners”, Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol.58, 323-343.Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A.R. 1980,”The lagrange multiplier test and Its applications to model specification in econometrics” Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253.
• Breitung, J. 2000, The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests For Panel Data, in: B. Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 15, JAI: Amsterdam, 2000, p. 161- 178.
• Brown R.P.C and D.A. Ahlburg, 1999, "Remittances in the south pacific", International Journal of Social Economics, 26(1/2/3), 325-344
• Bouhga-Hagbe, J. ,2004, “A theory of workers’ remittances with an application to Morocco” , IMF Working Paper, WP/04/194.
• Buch, C., A. Kuckulenz and M. Le Manchec , 2002, “Worker remittances and capital flows”, Kiel Working Paper, No: 1130, Kiel Institute for World Economics, Kiel.
• Buch, C.M. and A. Kuckulenz, 2004, “Worker remittances and capital flows to developing countries”, ZEW-Centre for Europan Economic Research Discussion Paper, No.04-031.
• Chami, R., C. Fullenkamp, and S. Jahjah. 2003. “Are ımmigrant remittance flows a source of capital for development?”, IMF Working Paper WP/03/190, IMF Institute, Washington, DC.
• Choi, I. 2001, Unit root tests for panel data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249–72.
• El-Sakka, M.I.T. and R. McNabb, 1999, “The macroeconomic determinants of emigrant remittances”, World Development, 27(8), 1493-1502.
• Farzanegan, M.R. and S.M. Hassan, 2016, “How does the flow of remittances affect the trade balance of the middle east and north africa”, Macie Paper Series, Marburg Centre for Institutional Economics, No:2016/13.
• Giuliano, P. and R. Marta, 2005, Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth. IMF Working Paper Research Department, WP/05/234.
• Hadri, K. 2000, Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 3, 148-161.
• Hadri, K. and Kurozumi, E. 2012, A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor, Economics Letters 115, 31–34.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. 2003, Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
• Johansen,S. 1988, Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors .Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12, 231-254.
• Kandil, M., and I. Mirzaie, 2008, “The ımpact of capital and remittance flows on economic performance in mena countries, World Economics, 10(3), 159-192.
• Kao, C. 1999, Spurious Regression and Residual-based Tests for Co-integration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 90, No.1, 1-44.
• Khan, M.S. and Senhadji, A.S., 2003. Financial development and economic growth: a review and new evidence. Journal of African Economies 12 (supp 2), 89–110.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, C. S. J. 2002, Unit root test in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24.
• Lipton, M., 1980, Migration from rural areas of poor countries: the ımpact on rural productivity and income distribution, World Development, 8(1), 1-24.
• Leon-Ledesma, M. and M. Piracha, 2004, “International migration and the role of remittances in eastern europe”, International Migration, 42(4), 65-83.
• Lopez, H., L. Molina and M. Bussolo, 2007, "Remittances and the real exchange rate." World Bank, Washington, DC.
• Lowell, B. Lindsay and R. de la Garza, 2000, “The developmental role of remittances in u.s. latino communities and in latin american countries”, A Report of the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute and the Inter-American Dialogue, http://www.thedialogue.org
• Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. 1999, “A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, special issue, 631–652.
• Migration and Development Brief 27, April 2017.
• Nayyar, D. 1994, “Migration, remittances and capital flows: the Indian experience”, Oxford University Press, UK.
• Nsiah, C. and B. Fayissa, 2013, “Remittances and economic growth in africa, asia and latin american-caribbean countries: a panel unit root and panel cointegration analysis”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 37(3), 424-441.
• Okodua, H. and W. K. Olayiwola, 2013, “Migrant workers’ remittances and external trade balance in Sub-Sahara African countries”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(3), 134-142.
• OECD (2006). International Migrant Remittances and their Role in Development. International Migration Outlook Part III, pp. 139-161. https://www.oecd.org/els/mig/38840502.pdf
• Pedroni, P. 1999, “Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61, 653–670.
• Pedroni, P. 2004, Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis: new results. Econometric Theory 20, 597–627.
• Pesaran, M.H. 2007, A simple unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (2), 265-312.
• Pesaran, H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. 2008, A bias-adjusted LM test of error crosssection independence. Econometrics Journal 11, 105–127.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. 1999, Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634.
• Ramirez, M. and S. Hari, 2009, Remittances and growth in Latin America: a panel unit root and panel cointegration analysis. EEDI-ESID. Economic Studies of International Development 9(1), 5-36.
• Ratha, D. 2004, “The development dimension of remittances”, IOM Working Paper Series, No:1, Department of Migration Policy, Research and Communications. http://www.iom.int/documents/publication/en/mpr1.pdf
• Rosser, E., 2008, “ Immigrant remittances”, Connecticut Law Review, 41(1), 1-61.
• Shaw, J. (ed) ,2006, “Remittances microfinance and development: building the links”, 1, A Global View, The Foundation for Development Cooperation, Brisbane.
• Sorensen, N. N., 2004, “The development dimension of migrant remittances.” IOM Working Paper Series No. 1, June, IOM, Geneva.
• Taylor, J. Edward and T.J. Wyatt, 1996, “The shadow value of migrant remittances, ıncome and ınequality in a household-farm economy.” Journal of Development Studies, 32(6), 899–912.
• Taylor, J. Edward, 1999, “The new economics of labour migration and the role of remittances in the migration process.” International Migration, 37(1), 63–88