Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) Analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1960–2024 döneminde Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları ile kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ve dinamik etkileşimleri zaman serisi yöntemleri çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Söz konusu ilişki, Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modeli ve Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, savunma harcamalarından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Etki-tepki analizleri, bu etkinin kısa vadede pozitif olduğunu ancak zamanla zayıfladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, savunma harcamalarının Türkiye ekonomisinde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde gecikmeli ve anlamlı bir etki yaratabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, söz konusu etkinin yönü, süresi ve büyüklüğünün dikkatle izlenmesi ve ekonomi politikalarının tasarımında bu ilişkinin göz önünde bulundurulması gerekmektedir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye gibi jeopolitik açıdan stratejik bir bölgede konumlanan ülkelerde savunma harcamalarının yalnızca güvenlik boyutuyla değil, ekonomik etkileriyle birlikte ele alınması önem arz etmektedir.

Keywords

• Askeri Harcama
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

The Relationship Between Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis and Granger Causality Test

Abstract

This study examines the causal relationship and dynamic interactions between defense expenditures and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Türkiye over the period 1960–2024 within the framework of time series methods. The relationship is analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Granger causality test. The findings indicate the presence of a unidirectional and statistically significant causal relationship running from defense expenditures to economic growth. Impulse response analyses reveal that this effect is positive in the short run but gradually weakens over time. The results suggest that defense expenditures may have a delayed and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the Turkish economy. Nevertheless, the direction, duration, and magnitude of this effect should be carefully monitored, and this relationship should be taken into consideration in the design of economic policies. Overall, the findings highlight that in countries located in geopolitically strategic regions such as Türkiye, defense expenditures should be evaluated not only from a security perspective but also in terms of their economic implications.

Keywords

• Military Expenditure
• Economic Growth
• Time-Series Analysis.

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