Aşırı Özgüven, Sessiz Ekipler ve Kaybolan Fikirler: Dunning–Kruger Etkisi Örgütlerde İnovasyonu Nasıl Zayıflatır?

Abstract

Örgütlerin yenilikçi performansı yalnızca teknik bilgi ve maddi kaynaklara değil, bireylerin kendi yetkinliklerini doğru değerlendirebilme kapasitesine ve örgüt içi öğrenme iklimine de bağlıdır. Ancak yöneticiler ve çalışanlar, bilişsel önyargılar nedeniyle karar alma ve öğrenme süreçlerinde sistematik hatalar yapabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, düşük yetkinliğe sahip bireylerin kendi bilgi ve becerilerini aşırı değerlendirmeleriyle tanımlanan Dunning–Kruger etkisinin, örgütlerin inovasyon potansiyelini hangi mekanizmalar aracılığıyla sınırladığı kavramsal bir çerçevede ele alınmaktadır. Literatür taramasına dayalı olarak geliştirilen modelde, Dunning–Kruger etkisinin psikolojik güveni olumsuz yönde etkilediği; psikolojik güvenin ise bir aracı (mediatör) değişken olarak örgütsel öğrenme, fikir paylaşımı ve yenilik kapasitesini şekillendirdiği öne sürülmektedir. Liderlik tarzı, metabilişsel eğitimler ve örgütsel öğrenme yapıları ise bu temel ilişkinin gücünü artırıp azaltabilen düzenleyici (moderatör) değişkenler olarak konumlandırılmaktadır. Çalışma, mevcut bilişsel yanlılık literatüründe genellikle bireysel performans veya eğitim bağlamında incelenen Dunning–Kruger etkisini, örgütsel inovasyon süreçleriyle sistematik biçimde ilişkilendiren bütüncül bir kuramsal model ortaya koyarak özgün bir sentez sunmaktadır. Ampirik bir test sunmamakla birlikte, gelecekte yapılacak araştırmalar için sınanabilir kavramsal önermeler ve metodolojik bir yol haritası önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Dunning–Kruger Etkisi
• Bilişsel Önyargılar
• Örgütsel İnovasyon
• Psikolojik Güven
• Örgütsel Öğrenme.

Overconfidence, Silent Teams, and Lost Ideas: How the Dunning–Kruger Effect Undermines Innovation in Organizations

Abstract

Organizational innovation performance depends not only on technical expertise and material resources, but also on individuals' ability to accurately assess their own competencies and on the organization's learning climate. Cognitive biases, however, systematically distort decision-making and learning processes within organizations. This study conceptually examines how the Dunning–Kruger effect defined as the tendency of low-competence individuals to overestimate their own abilities constrains organizational innovation through multiple cognitive and social mechanisms. Based on an integrative review of the literature, the proposed framework argues that the Dunning–Kruger effect negatively affects psychological safety, which in turn functions as a mediating variable shaping organizational learning, idea sharing, and innovation capacity. Leadership style, metacognitive training, and organizational learning structures are positioned as moderating variables that regulate the strength of these relationships. The study offers a novel theoretical synthesis by systematically linking the Dunning–Kruger effect ordinarily examined in individual performance or training contexts to organizational innovation processes through a multi-level conceptual model. Rather than offering an empirical test, the paper advances theory-driven propositions and outlines a methodological roadmap for future empirical investigation.

Keywords

• Dunning–Kruger effect
• cognitive biases
• organizational innovation
• psychological safety
• organizational learning

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