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Socioeconomic Determinants of First Birth Decisions: Tied Hazard Models

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 271 - 282, 10.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.534551

Öz

In this
study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors that affect the first
birth decision of women using the tied hazard models. In this context, the
effect of woman’s age, education level, disability status, household size and
income on the first birth decision are determined applying semi-parametric
Efron, Breslow and Exact approximations of tied hazard models on the Turkstat
2015 Household Budget Survey data because of the frequency of tied observations
in the data set. In the analyzes, Efron approximation produced more consistent
results. In addition, it is concluded that the most important factors in the
first birth decision are disability status of the woman, age and her
educational level.

Kaynakça

  • Amuedo-Dorantes, C. ve Kimmel, J. (2006), The Family Earnings and Postponement of Maternity in The United States, içinde Gustfasson, S. ve Kalwij, A. (Eds.), Education and Postponement of Maternity, Hollanda, Springer.
  • Ata N., Karasoy, D.S. ve Sözer, M. T. (2007), Orantılı Tehlike Varsayımının İncelenmesinde Kullanılan Yöntemler ve Bir Uygulama, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), 57-80.
  • Bhrolchain, M. N., ve Beaujouan, E. (2012), Fertility Postponement Is Largely Due to Rising Educational Enrolment, Journal of Demography, 66(3), 311–327.
  • Borucka, J. (2014), Methods for Handling Tied Events in The Cox Proportional Hazard Model, Studia Oeconomica Posnaniensia, 2(2), 91-106.
  • Bratti, M. ve Cavalli, L. (2013), Delayed First Birth and New Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From Biological Fertiliy Shocks, IZA Discussion Paper, No7135.
  • Breslow, N.E. (1974), Covariance Analysis of Censored Survival Data, Biometrics, 30, 89-99.
  • Cigno, A. ve Ermisch, J. (1989), A Microeconomic Analysis of The Timing of Births, European Economic Review, 33(4), 737–760.
  • Correll, S. J., Benard, S. ve Paik, I. (2007), Getting a Job: Is There a Motherhood Penalty?, American Journal of Sociology, 112(5), 1297–1338.
  • Cox, D. R. (1972), Regression Models and Life‐Tables, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34(2), 187-202.
  • Efron, B. (1977), The Efficiency of Cox’s Likelihood Function for Censored Data, Journal of The American Statistical Association, 76, 312-319.
  • Ellwood, D., Wilde, T. ve Batchelder, L. (2004), The Mommy Track Divides: The Impact of Childbearing on Wages of Women of Differing Skill Levels, Basılmamış Yayın.
  • Ermisch, J. ve Ogawa, N. (1994), Age at Motherhood in Japan, Journal of Population Economics, 7(4), 393-420.
  • Grambsch, P. M. ve Therneau, T. M. (1994), Proportional Hazards Tests and Diagnostics Based on Weighted Residual, Biometrika 81, 515-526.
  • Gurmu, E. ve Etana, D. (2014), Age at First Marriage and First Birth Interval in Ethiopia: Analysis of The Roles of Social and Demographic Factors, African Population Studies, 28(3):1332-1344.
  • Gustafsson, S. (2001), Optimal Age at Motherhood. Theoretical and Empirical Considerations on Postponement of Maternity in Europe, Journal of Population Economics, 14, 225–247.
  • Gustafsson, S. ve Kalwij, A. (2006), Education and Postponement of Maternity: Economic Analyses for Industrialized Countries, Hollanda, Springer.
  • Haque A. M. ve Sayem, A. M. (2009), Socioeconomic Determinants of Age at First Birth in Rural Areas of Bangladesh, Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 21(1), 104-111.
  • Hobcraft, J. ve Kiernan, K. (1995), Becoming a Parent in Europe, içinde International Union for The Scientific Study of Population, Evolution or Revolution in European Population.
  • Kamal, A. ve Pervaiz, M. K. (2013), Determinants of Marriage to First Birth Interval in Pakistan, Journal of Statistics, 20, 44-68.
  • Khatun, S. ve Rahman, M. (2008), Socio-Economic Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Bangladesh: A Multivariate Approach, Bangladesh Medical Research Council Bulletin, 34:81-86.
  • Kingsley, M. (2018) The influence of Income and Work Hours on First Birth for Australian Women, Journal of Population Research, 35(2), 107–129.Klein, J.P. ve Moeschberger, M.L. (1997), Survival Analysis Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data, Springer, New York.
  • Leridon, H. (2004), Can Assisted Reproduction Technology Compensate for The Natural Decline in Fertility With Age? A Model Assessment, Human Reproduction, 19, 1548–1553.
  • Liefbroer, A. C. (2005), The Impact of Perceived Costs and Rewards of Childbearing on Entry into Parenthood: Evidence from a Panel Study, European J. of Population, 21, 367–391.
  • Mirowsky, J.(2005), Age at First Birth, Health, and Mortality, Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 46.1: 32-50.
  • Miller, A. (2010), The Effects of Motherhood Timing on Career Path, Journal of Population Economics, 24(3), 1071–1100.
  • Morgan, S. P. ve Taylor, M. G. (2006), Low Fertility at The Turn of The Twenty-First Century, Annual Review of Sociology, 32, 375–399.
  • Ngalinda, I. (1998), Age at First Birth, Fertility, and Contraception in Tanzania, Doktora Tezi, Humboldt University of Berlin, Almanya.
  • Picciotto, I.H. ve Rockhill, B. (1997), Validity and Efficiency of Approximation Methods for Tied Survival Times in Cox Regression, Biometrics, 53, 1151-1156.
  • Rao, K., ve Balakrishnan, T. (1988), Age at First Birth in Canada: A Hazards Model Analysis, Genus, 44(1/2), 53-72.
  • Rindfuss, R. ve John, C. R. (1983), Social Determinants of Age at First Birth, Journal of Marriage and Family, 45(3), 553-565.
  • Rindfuss, R. R., Morgan, S. P. ve Offutt, K. (1996), Education and The Changing Age Pattern of American Fertility: 1963–1989, Demography, 33, 277–290.
  • Schoenfeld, D. (1982), Partial Residuals for The Proportional Hazards Regression Model, Biometrika, 69, 239-41.
  • Şahin, H. (2014), 1986-1991 Dönemi Türkiye Grevlerinin Bir Analizi: Hazard Modeli Yaklaşımı, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 56 (03), 141-156.
  • Şenol, V., Özdemir, A., Çetinkaya, F. ve Özturk, Y. (1998) Evaluation in Terms of Affecting Factors of Age at Menopause, içinde VI. National Public Health Congress Book; 362–364.
  • Tanturri, M. L. ve Mencarini, L. (2008), Childless or Childfree? Paths to Voluntary Childlessness in Italy, Population and Development Review, 34(1), 51–77.
  • Tavares, L.P. (2016), Who Delays Childbearing? The Associations Betweentime to First Birth, Personality Traits and Education, European Journal of Population (2016) 32, 575–597.
  • Teachman, J. D. ve Schollaert, P. T. (1989), Economic Conditions, Marital Status, and The Timing of First Births: Result for Whites and Blacks, Sociological Forum, 4(1), 27-46.
  • Testa, M. R. ve Toulemont, L. (2006), Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes, içinde Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 41–75.
  • TÜİK (2015), Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi Mikro Veri Seti
  • TÜİK (2017), İstatistiklerle Aile Haber Bültenleri ve Veri Setleri
  • Van Bavel, J. (2010), Choice of Study Discipline and The Postponement of Motherhood in Europe: The Impact of Expected Earnings, Gender Composition and Family Attitudes, Demography, 47, 439–458.
  • Willis, R.J., (1973), “A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior “, Journal of Political Economy, 81:279-288
  • Xin, X. (2011), A Study of Ties and Time-Varying Covariates in Cox Proportional Hazard Model, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, The Faculty of Graduate Studies of The University of Guelph.
  • Yardımcı E., Yardımcı O. ve Tümerdem Y. (1996), The Menopausalperiod and Health Problems, Journal of 19 May University Medical Faculty,13(1), 47–51.

İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 271 - 282, 10.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.534551

Öz

Bu çalışmada kadınların ilk doğum
kararını etkileyen sosyoekonomik faktörlerin eş zamanlı hazard modelleri
yardımıyla belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu bağlamda TÜİK 2015 Hanehalkı Bütçe
Anketi verileri kullanılarak yarı parametrik orantılı hazard modelleri çerçevesinde
kişinin ve eşinin yaşı, eğitim seviyesi, engellilik durumu ile hanehalkı
büyüklüğü ve kadının gelirinin ilk doğum kararı üzerindeki etkileri tespit
edilmiştir. Yapılan analizde veri setindeki eş zamanlı gözlemlere rastlanılması
nedeniyle Efron, Breslow ve Kesin hazard yakınsamaları kullanılmıştır. Efron
orantılı hazard model yakınsamasının daha tutarlı sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür.
Ayrıca ilk doğum kararının ertelenmesinde en önemli etkenlerin sırasıyla
kadının engel durumu, yaşı ve eğitim durumu olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 

Kaynakça

  • Amuedo-Dorantes, C. ve Kimmel, J. (2006), The Family Earnings and Postponement of Maternity in The United States, içinde Gustfasson, S. ve Kalwij, A. (Eds.), Education and Postponement of Maternity, Hollanda, Springer.
  • Ata N., Karasoy, D.S. ve Sözer, M. T. (2007), Orantılı Tehlike Varsayımının İncelenmesinde Kullanılan Yöntemler ve Bir Uygulama, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), 57-80.
  • Bhrolchain, M. N., ve Beaujouan, E. (2012), Fertility Postponement Is Largely Due to Rising Educational Enrolment, Journal of Demography, 66(3), 311–327.
  • Borucka, J. (2014), Methods for Handling Tied Events in The Cox Proportional Hazard Model, Studia Oeconomica Posnaniensia, 2(2), 91-106.
  • Bratti, M. ve Cavalli, L. (2013), Delayed First Birth and New Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From Biological Fertiliy Shocks, IZA Discussion Paper, No7135.
  • Breslow, N.E. (1974), Covariance Analysis of Censored Survival Data, Biometrics, 30, 89-99.
  • Cigno, A. ve Ermisch, J. (1989), A Microeconomic Analysis of The Timing of Births, European Economic Review, 33(4), 737–760.
  • Correll, S. J., Benard, S. ve Paik, I. (2007), Getting a Job: Is There a Motherhood Penalty?, American Journal of Sociology, 112(5), 1297–1338.
  • Cox, D. R. (1972), Regression Models and Life‐Tables, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34(2), 187-202.
  • Efron, B. (1977), The Efficiency of Cox’s Likelihood Function for Censored Data, Journal of The American Statistical Association, 76, 312-319.
  • Ellwood, D., Wilde, T. ve Batchelder, L. (2004), The Mommy Track Divides: The Impact of Childbearing on Wages of Women of Differing Skill Levels, Basılmamış Yayın.
  • Ermisch, J. ve Ogawa, N. (1994), Age at Motherhood in Japan, Journal of Population Economics, 7(4), 393-420.
  • Grambsch, P. M. ve Therneau, T. M. (1994), Proportional Hazards Tests and Diagnostics Based on Weighted Residual, Biometrika 81, 515-526.
  • Gurmu, E. ve Etana, D. (2014), Age at First Marriage and First Birth Interval in Ethiopia: Analysis of The Roles of Social and Demographic Factors, African Population Studies, 28(3):1332-1344.
  • Gustafsson, S. (2001), Optimal Age at Motherhood. Theoretical and Empirical Considerations on Postponement of Maternity in Europe, Journal of Population Economics, 14, 225–247.
  • Gustafsson, S. ve Kalwij, A. (2006), Education and Postponement of Maternity: Economic Analyses for Industrialized Countries, Hollanda, Springer.
  • Haque A. M. ve Sayem, A. M. (2009), Socioeconomic Determinants of Age at First Birth in Rural Areas of Bangladesh, Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 21(1), 104-111.
  • Hobcraft, J. ve Kiernan, K. (1995), Becoming a Parent in Europe, içinde International Union for The Scientific Study of Population, Evolution or Revolution in European Population.
  • Kamal, A. ve Pervaiz, M. K. (2013), Determinants of Marriage to First Birth Interval in Pakistan, Journal of Statistics, 20, 44-68.
  • Khatun, S. ve Rahman, M. (2008), Socio-Economic Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Bangladesh: A Multivariate Approach, Bangladesh Medical Research Council Bulletin, 34:81-86.
  • Kingsley, M. (2018) The influence of Income and Work Hours on First Birth for Australian Women, Journal of Population Research, 35(2), 107–129.Klein, J.P. ve Moeschberger, M.L. (1997), Survival Analysis Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data, Springer, New York.
  • Leridon, H. (2004), Can Assisted Reproduction Technology Compensate for The Natural Decline in Fertility With Age? A Model Assessment, Human Reproduction, 19, 1548–1553.
  • Liefbroer, A. C. (2005), The Impact of Perceived Costs and Rewards of Childbearing on Entry into Parenthood: Evidence from a Panel Study, European J. of Population, 21, 367–391.
  • Mirowsky, J.(2005), Age at First Birth, Health, and Mortality, Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 46.1: 32-50.
  • Miller, A. (2010), The Effects of Motherhood Timing on Career Path, Journal of Population Economics, 24(3), 1071–1100.
  • Morgan, S. P. ve Taylor, M. G. (2006), Low Fertility at The Turn of The Twenty-First Century, Annual Review of Sociology, 32, 375–399.
  • Ngalinda, I. (1998), Age at First Birth, Fertility, and Contraception in Tanzania, Doktora Tezi, Humboldt University of Berlin, Almanya.
  • Picciotto, I.H. ve Rockhill, B. (1997), Validity and Efficiency of Approximation Methods for Tied Survival Times in Cox Regression, Biometrics, 53, 1151-1156.
  • Rao, K., ve Balakrishnan, T. (1988), Age at First Birth in Canada: A Hazards Model Analysis, Genus, 44(1/2), 53-72.
  • Rindfuss, R. ve John, C. R. (1983), Social Determinants of Age at First Birth, Journal of Marriage and Family, 45(3), 553-565.
  • Rindfuss, R. R., Morgan, S. P. ve Offutt, K. (1996), Education and The Changing Age Pattern of American Fertility: 1963–1989, Demography, 33, 277–290.
  • Schoenfeld, D. (1982), Partial Residuals for The Proportional Hazards Regression Model, Biometrika, 69, 239-41.
  • Şahin, H. (2014), 1986-1991 Dönemi Türkiye Grevlerinin Bir Analizi: Hazard Modeli Yaklaşımı, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 56 (03), 141-156.
  • Şenol, V., Özdemir, A., Çetinkaya, F. ve Özturk, Y. (1998) Evaluation in Terms of Affecting Factors of Age at Menopause, içinde VI. National Public Health Congress Book; 362–364.
  • Tanturri, M. L. ve Mencarini, L. (2008), Childless or Childfree? Paths to Voluntary Childlessness in Italy, Population and Development Review, 34(1), 51–77.
  • Tavares, L.P. (2016), Who Delays Childbearing? The Associations Betweentime to First Birth, Personality Traits and Education, European Journal of Population (2016) 32, 575–597.
  • Teachman, J. D. ve Schollaert, P. T. (1989), Economic Conditions, Marital Status, and The Timing of First Births: Result for Whites and Blacks, Sociological Forum, 4(1), 27-46.
  • Testa, M. R. ve Toulemont, L. (2006), Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes, içinde Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 41–75.
  • TÜİK (2015), Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi Mikro Veri Seti
  • TÜİK (2017), İstatistiklerle Aile Haber Bültenleri ve Veri Setleri
  • Van Bavel, J. (2010), Choice of Study Discipline and The Postponement of Motherhood in Europe: The Impact of Expected Earnings, Gender Composition and Family Attitudes, Demography, 47, 439–458.
  • Willis, R.J., (1973), “A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior “, Journal of Political Economy, 81:279-288
  • Xin, X. (2011), A Study of Ties and Time-Varying Covariates in Cox Proportional Hazard Model, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, The Faculty of Graduate Studies of The University of Guelph.
  • Yardımcı E., Yardımcı O. ve Tümerdem Y. (1996), The Menopausalperiod and Health Problems, Journal of 19 May University Medical Faculty,13(1), 47–51.
Toplam 44 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Egemen İpek 0000-0002-1365-0526

Yayımlanma Tarihi 10 Temmuz 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Mart 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA İpek, E. (2019). İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri. Optimum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(2), 271-282. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.534551
AMA İpek E. İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri. OEYBD. Temmuz 2019;6(2):271-282. doi:10.17541/optimum.534551
Chicago İpek, Egemen. “İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri”. Optimum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 6, sy. 2 (Temmuz 2019): 271-82. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.534551.
EndNote İpek E (01 Temmuz 2019) İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 6 2 271–282.
IEEE E. İpek, “İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri”, OEYBD, c. 6, sy. 2, ss. 271–282, 2019, doi: 10.17541/optimum.534551.
ISNAD İpek, Egemen. “İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri”. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 6/2 (Temmuz 2019), 271-282. https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.534551.
JAMA İpek E. İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri. OEYBD. 2019;6:271–282.
MLA İpek, Egemen. “İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri”. Optimum Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 6, sy. 2, 2019, ss. 271-82, doi:10.17541/optimum.534551.
Vancouver İpek E. İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri. OEYBD. 2019;6(2):271-82.

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