Türkiye’de COVID-19 Pandemisinin Ev Fiyatları Endeksi Üzerine Etkisi: Kesintili Zaman Serileri Analizi

Öz

COVID-19 salgını günlük yaşamın çeşitli yönleri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olmuştur ve konut piyasası da bu faktörlerden biridir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, COVID-19 salgınının konut piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, COVID-19'un konut piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek için Türkiye'nin 2018-2022 yılları arasındaki konut fiyat endeksi (KFE) verileri kesintili zaman serisi analizi (ITS) yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. COVID-19'un hemen ardından konut fiyat endeksinde bir düşüş yaşanmıştır ve bu düşüş istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır (-105,726 ve p=0,003). Ancak bu düşüşün trendinin değiştiği ve konut fiyat endeksinin her ay ve yıl 14.521 puan arttığı tespit edilmiştir (p=0.001). Sonuç olarak, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler gösteren bu çalışma, COVID-19 salgınının Türkiye genelinde konut fiyatlarında önemli değişikliklere neden olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• Zaman serileri
• Ev Fiyatları

COVID-19 Pandemıc Effect On House Price Index In Turkey: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Öz

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on various aspects of everyday life,and the housing market is one of these factors.The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market. In this context, the study analyzed the House price index(HPI) data for Turkey between 2018-2022 using the interrupted time series analysis(ITS) method to examine the effects of COVID-19 on the housing market. According to the analysis, there has been a decrease in the HPI immediately after COVID-19 and this decrease is statistically significant(-105.726 and p=0.003). However, it has been found that the trend of this decrease has changed and also, it has been determined that the housing price index has increased by 14.521 points every month and year(p=0.001). As a result,this study, which shows statistically significant effects, has revealed that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in housing prices throughout Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Time Series Analysis
• COVID-19
• Housing Market

Kaynakça

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