The Future of the European Union on the Basis of Flexible Integration and the Place of Turkey: Possible Scenarios

Yıl 2020, , 325 - 364, 17.01.2020

Elif Cemre Beşgür , Utku Utkulu

https://doi.org/10.32450/aacd.676495

Cited By: 3

Öz

The concept of flexible integration is essential for more efficient and effective management of diversity in the European Union (EU). In this study, it is anticipated that as a result of the crises in the EU, it will evolve into more flexible structure that pragmatically implements different flexible integration models without depending on a single model in the future. This study aims to emphasize the need for flexible integration in the future of the EU and to reveal Turkey’s place in the future of the EU. In this direction, Turkey’s place in the future of the EU was examined through possible scenarios. The paper concludes that the Trade Partnership scenario, in which the full membership goal of Turkey is maintained, provides opportunities for both sides.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Flexible (differentiated) integration, multi-speed Europe, a la carte Europe, European Union, Turkey-EU relations

ESNEK ENTEGRASYON TEMELİNDE AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ’NİN GELECEĞİ VE TÜRKİYE’NİN YERİ: MUHTEMEL SENARYOLAR

Öz

Esnek entegrasyon kavramı, Avrupa Birliği’nde (AB) çeşitliliğin daha etkin ve etkili yönetilmesi açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, AB’nin krizler neticesinde, gelecekte tek bir modele bağlı kalmadan; farklı esnek entegrasyon modellerini pragmatik bir şekilde uygulayan daha esnek bir yapıya evirileceği öngörülmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı, AB’nin geleceğinde esnek entegrasyonun gerekliliğini vurgulamak ve AB’nin söz konusu geleceğinde Türkiye’nin yerini değerlendirmektir. Bu doğrultuda Türkiye’nin AB’nin geleceğindeki yeri, muhtemel senaryolar üzerinden incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, tam üyelik hedefinin korunduğu Ticaret Ortaklığı senaryosunun her iki tarafa fırsatlar sağladığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Esnek (farklılaştırılmış) entegrasyon, çok vitesli Avrupa, a la kart Avrupa, Avrupa Birliği, Türkiye-AB ilişkiler

Kaynakça

• Akman Sait, “the European Union’s Trade Strategy and its Reflections on Turkey: an Evaluation from the Perspective of Free Trade Agreements”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12, no 2 (2010): 17-45.
• Akşemsettinoğlu Gökhan, “Avrupa Bütünleşme Projesinin ve Genişleme Sürecinin Değişen Dinamikleri”, Ankara Avrupa Çalışmaları Dergisi, 10, no 1 (2011): 1-18.
• Andersen Svein ve Sitter Nick, “Differentiated Integration: What is it and How Much Can the EU Accommodate? ”, Journal of European Integration, 28, no 4 (2006): 313-330.
• Avbelj Matej, “What Future for the European Union”, Center for Global Constitutionalism, Discussion Paper SP IV 2017-802, https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2017/iv17-802.pdf, (20.11.2018).
• Aytuğ Hüseyin, Kütük Merve, Oduncu Arif, ve Togan Subidey, “Twenty Years of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 55, no 3 (2016): 419–431.
• Beşgür Elif Cemre, Euro Krizi, Avrupa Birliği’nin Geleceğinde Türkiye’nin Yeri ve Muhtemel Senaryolar: Esnek Entegrasyon Bir Çözüm Olabilir mi?, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İzmir, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2018.
• Briançon Pierre, “Macron’s big speech on Europe’s future”, Politico, Eylül 26, 2017.
• Canate A. Miguel,“Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete at the 4th EU Energy Summit”, (12.04.2018), http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-18-3242_en.htm, (22.11.2018).
• Congressional Research Service, “The European Union: Ongoing Challenges and Future Prospects”, 2018, , https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44249.pdf, (20.04.2019).
• Consolidated Version of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Official Journal of the European Union, C 326/01 of 26 October 2012.
• Council of the European Union, “2770th Council Meeting General Affairs and External Relations”,(11.12.2006), http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/ cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/gena/92122.pdf,(21.11. 2018).
• Council of the European Union, “The Rome Declaration”, (25.03.2017), http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/03/25/rome-declaration/pdf, (07.11.2018).
• Dağdemir Uçkan Elif, “Avrupa Birliği’nin Bütünleşme Sürecinde Esneklik Kavramı: Amsterdam Antlaşması Çerçevesinde Değerlendirme”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 56, no 2 (2001): 21-41.
• Dewatripont Mathias, Giavazzi Francesco, Harden Jürgen, Hagen Ian, Persson Torsten, Roland Gerard, Sapir Andre ve Guido Tabellini, Flexible Integration: Towards a More Effective and Democratic Europe. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1995.
• Dışişleri Bakanlığı Avrupa Birliği Başkanlığı, “Katılım Müzakerelerinde Mevcut Durum”, https://www.ab.gov.tr/65.html, Erişim Tarihi: Aralık 26, 2018.
• European Commission, “A Credible Enlargement Perspective for and Enhanced EU Engagement with the Western Balkans”, (06.02.2018), https://ec.europa.eu/ commission/sites/beta-political/files/communication-credible-enlargement-perspective-western-balkans_en.pdf, (19.11.2018).
• European Commission, “A Modern Budget for a Union that Protects, Empowers and Defends The Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027”, (02.05.2018), https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/communication-modern-budget-may_2018_en.pdf, (19.11.2018).
• European Commission, “A Policy Framework for Climate and Energy in the Period from 2020 to 2030”, https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy-and-energy-union/2030-energy-strategy”, (01.11.2018).
• European Commission, “Enhancement of EU-Turkey bilateral trade relations and modernisation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union”, August 2015, http://ec.europa.eu/smart-regulation/roadmaps/docs/2015_trade_035_turkey_ en.pdf, (20.11.2018).
• European Commission, Glossary The reform of the European Union in 150 Definitions, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1997.
• European Commission, “Impact Assessment EU-Turkey CU Modernisation”, (12.12.2016), http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2017/january/tradoc_ 155238.pdf, (21.11.2018).
• European Commission, “Positive EU-Turkey Agenda Launched in Ankara”, (12.05.2012), http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-12-359_en.htm, (22.11.2018).
• European Commission, “Remarks by President Juncker following the EU-Turkey Leader’s Meeting in Varna, Bulgaria”, (26.03.2018), http://europa.eu/ rapid/press-release_SPEECH-18-2607_en.htm, (19.11.2018).
• European Commission, “White Paper on the Future of Europe”, (01.03.2017), https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/betapolitical/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf, (20.11.2018).
• European Parliament, “European Elections Results”, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ news/en/press-room/elections-press-kit/0/european-elections-results, (29.08.2019).
• European Parliament, “Resolution of 6 July 2017 on the 2016 Commission Annual Progress Report”, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/ficheprocedure. do?lang=en&reference=2 016/2308(INI), (19.04.2019).
• European Parliament, “Resolution of 13 March 2019 on the 2018 Commission Report on Turkey”, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2019-0200_EN.html, (19.04.2019).
• European Parliament, “Resolution of 24 November 2016 on EU-Turkey Relations”, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/ficheprocedure.do?lang=en&reference=2016/2993(RSP), (19.04.2019).
• European Parliament, “Two years until the 2019 European elections”, April 2017, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/eurobarometre/2017/2019ee/two_years_until_ee2019_synthesis_en.pdf, (25.11.2018).
• Eylemer Sedef, “Revisiting the Debates on a Model of Integration for Post-Crisis Europe: Towards A Political Union or Just More Differentiation”, Perceptions Journal of International Affairs, 20, no 4 (2015): 11-36.
• Felbermayr Gabriel, Aichele Rahel ve Yalcin Erdal, “EU-Turkish customs union: How to proceed”, IFO Center for International Economics, July 2016, https://voxeu.org/article/eu-turkish-customs-union-how-proceed, (30.07.2018).
• Fossum John Eric, “Democracy and Differentiation in Europe”, Journal of European Public Policy, 22, no 6 (2015): 799-815.
• Junge Kerstin, “Differentiated Integration” in European Union Politics, ed. Michelle Cini, (New York: Oxford University Press), ss. 391-405.
• Holzinger Katharina ve Schimmelfennig Frank, “Differentiated Integration in the European Union: Many Concepts, Sparse Theory, Few Data”, Journal of European Public Policy, 19, no 2 (2012): 293-305.
• Hurd Elizabeth Shakman, “Negotiating Europe: the politics of religion and the prospects for Turkish accession”, Review of International Studies, 32, no 3 (2006): 401–418.
• Karakaş Cemal, “EU–Turkey: Integration without Full Membership or Membership without Full Integration? A Conceptual Framework for Accession Alternatives” Journal of Common Market Studies, 51, no 6 (2013): 1057-1073.
• Karluk Rıdvan, “Avrupa Birliği’nin Alternatifi Avrasya Ekonomik Birliği Olamaz”, 4th SCF International Conference Proceedings Book, Nisan 26-28, 2018, Nevşehir.
• Kıncal Ali ve Utkulu Utku, “The Political Economy of the Mega-Regional Trade Agreements and the Future of the Global Trading System”. In Critical Debates in Social Sciences edited by Bedriye Tunçsiper ve Ferhan Sayın (London: Frontpage, 2018), 320-342.
• Koeing Nicole, “A differentiated view of differentiated integration”, Jacques Delors Institut Berlin, Policy Paper 140, https://www.delorsinstitut.de/2015/wpcontent/ uploads/2015/07/20150723_DifferentiatedIntegration_JDIB_Nicole-Koenig.pdf, (20.04.2019).
• Koronakis Alexandros,“The Future of Europe: Reflections on the White Paper”, World Affairs, March 6, 2017.
• Krotz Ulrich ve Schild Joachim, “Back to the future? Franco-German bilateralism in Europe’s post-Brexit union”, Journal of European Public Policy, 25, no 8 (2018):1174-1193.
• Kutlay Mustafa, Türkiye-AB İlişkilerinin Değişen Seyri ve Gümrük Birliği’ni Yeniden Düşünmek, Ankara: Usak Yayınları, 2011.
• Leuffen Dirk, Rittberger Berthold ve Schimmelfennig Frank, Differentiated Integration: Explaining Variation in the European Union, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.
• Müftüler Baç Meltem, “The Future of Europe, Differentiated Integrationand Turkey’s Role”, Global Turkey in Europe, Commentary 9, 2013.
• Müftüler Baç Meltem, “Turkey’s future with the European Union: an alternative model of differentiated integration”, Turkish Studies, 18, no 3(2017): 416-438.
• Müftüler Baç Meltem ve Luetgert Brooke, “The European Union’s Alternative Models for Maximizing its Integration Strategy for Candidates and Neighbour States: A Process of External Differentiation”, 2016, MAXCAP Working Paper no. 35, http://userpage.fuberlin. de/kfgeu/maxcap/system/files/maxcap_wp_ 35.pdf, (19.04.2019).
• Nas Çiğdem, “Eğrisi Doğrusu” (TV Programı), (10.02.2018), İstanbul: CNN Türk Televizyonu.
• Neve Jan-Emmanuel, “The European Onion? How Differentiated Integration is Reshaping the EU”, Journal of European Integration, 29, no 4(2007): 503-521.
• Öner Selcen, “The Influence of the Economic Crisis and Refugee Crisis on EU Politics: the Challenges and Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations”, Marmara Journal of European Studies, 24, no 2 (2016): 59-85.
• Öniş Ziya, “The Age of Anxiety: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy in a Post-Hegemonic Global Order”, The International Spectator, 52, no 3 (2017): 18-35.
• Öniş Ziya ve Kutlay Mustafa, “Ekonomik Bütünleşme/Siyasal Parçalanmışlık Paradoksu: Avro Krizi ve Avrupa Birliği’nin Geleceği”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 9, no 33(2012): 3-27.
• Özcan Celal, “Merkel: Türkiye ile Gümrük Birliği'ni güncellemeyeceğiz”, Hürriyet, Ağustos 16, 2017.
• Özcan Mehmet, Fatma Elmas, Mustafa Kutlay ve Ceren Mutuş, Bundan sonrası?: senaryo analizleriyle Türkiye ve AB ilişkileri, Ankara: Karınca Yayınları, 2009.
• Robert Schuman The Research and Studies Centre on Europe, “The European Elections Monitor”,2018,https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/the-european-elections-monitor/2018/, (11.11.2018).
• Schimmelfennig Frank, “Brexit: differentiated disintegration in the European Union”, Journal of European Public Policy, 25, no 8 (2018): 154-1173.
• Schimmelfennig Frank, Leuffen Dirk ve Rittberger Berthold, “The European Union as a system of differentiated integration: interdependence, politicization and differentiation”, Journal of European Public Policy, 22, no 6 (2015): 764-782.
• Shaw Jo,“Enhancing Cooperation after Nice Will the Treaty do the Trick”, The Treaty of Nice and Beyond: Enlargement and Constitutional Reform, ed. Mads Andenas ve John Usher, Oxford: Hart Publishing, 2003.
• Stiftung Mercator, “The Future of Turkey-EU Relations 4 scenarios for 2018”, https://www.stiftungmercator.de/media/downloads/3_Publikationen/The_Future_of_Turkey_EU_Relations.pdf, (12.12.2018).
• Storbeck Olaf, “Berlin sees ‘smart’ Brexit deal as model for Turkey”, Financial Times, Aralık 26, 2017.
• Stubb Alexander, “A Categorization of Differentiated Integration”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 34, no 2 (1996): 283–295.
• Stubb Alexander, Negotiating Flexibility in the European Union: Amsterdam, Nice and Beyond, New York: Palgrave, 2002.
• Şahin Yeliz, “Brexit Sonrası AB İçin 5 Senaryo: Avrupa’nın Geleceğine Dair Beyaz Kitap”, İKV Dergisi, 197, 2017.
• The Statistical Office of the European Union, “Turkey-EU - international trade in goods statistics”, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php? title=Turkey-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics, (22.11.2018).
• Ticaret Bakanlığı, “Gümrük Birliği’nin Güncellenmesi Etki Analizi Çalışması” https://www.ticaret.gov.tr/portal/content%9Fkiler/Avrupa%20Birli%C4%9Fi/ekler/Etki%20Analizidirisi.pdf?lve, (21.11.2018).
• Ticaret Bakanlığı, “Report of the SWOG on the Update of the EU-Turkey Customs”, (27.04.20185),https://www.ticaret.gov.tr/portal/content/conn/UCM/path//web/D20Raporu.pdf?lve, (20.11.2018).
• Ticaret Bakanlığı, “Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmalarına İlişkin Genel Bilgi”, https://www.ticaret.gov.tr/dis-iliskiler/serbest-ticaret-anlasmalari/yururlukte-bulunan-stalar, (10.11.2018).
• Ticaret Bakanlığı, “Uluslararası Doğrudan Yatırım İstatistikleri”, https://eb.ticaret.gov.tr/portal/content/conn/UCM/path/Contribution%2520Folders/web/Yat%25C4%25B1r%25C4%25B1m/Uluslararas%25C4%25B1%2520Yat%25C4%25B1r%25C4%25B1mlar/03.Uluslararas%25C4%25B1%2520Do%25C4%259Frudan%2520Yat%25C4%25B1r%25C4%25B1m%2520%25C4%25B0statistikleri/Uluslararas%25C4%25B1%2520Do%25C4%259Frudan%2520Yat%25C4%25B1r%25C4%25B1m%2520%25C4%25B0statistikleri.xlsx%3Flve+&cd=1&hl=tr&ct=clnk&gl=tr, (05.11.2018).
• Ticaret Bakanlığı, “Türkiye’de Faaliyette Bulunan Yabancı Sermayeli Firmalar Listesi”, (31.12.2017),https://www.ticaret.gov.tr/portal/faces/home/yatirim/ uluslararasiYatirim/uluslararasi-dogrudan-yatirim, (05.11.2018).
• Tocci Nathalie, “Turkey and the European Union: Scenarios for 2023” FEUTURE Papers 2016, http://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/feuture_1.pdf (12.12.2018).
• Turhan Ebru, “Avrupa Birliği’nin Üçüncü Ülkelerle Harici Farklılaştırılmış̧ Entegrasyon Modelleri ve Türkiye-AB İlişkilerinin Geleceği: Neoliberal bir Yaklaşım”, Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 27, no 1(2018): 95-120.
• Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu, “Dış Ticaret İstatistikleri”, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/ disticaretapp/menu.zul, (10.11.2018).
• Valat Yoan, “Merkel backs Macron’s call for multi-speed EU, small eurozone budget”, Euractiv, Ağustos 30, 2017.
• Warleigh Alex, Flexible Integration: Which Model for the European Union? London, New York: Sheffield Academic Press, 2002.
• Wiener Antje ve Diez Thomas, European Integration Theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009.
• Wiesmann Gerrit, “Merkel Insists on Two-speed Europe”, Financial Times, Haziran 7, 2012.
• World Bank, “Evaluation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union”, Report No. 85830-TR, (28.03.2014), http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/ eca/turkey/tr-eu-customs-union-eng.pdf, (22.11.2018).
• Zalan Eszter, EU’s big four back multi-speed Europe, EU Observer, Mart 7, 2017