Araştırma Makalesi
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İç Savaşlar Ne Zaman Etnik Temizlik Doğurur? Lübnan ve Yugoslavya Vakaları

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 265 - 290, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.31679/adamakademi.684177

Öz

İç savaşlar etnik şiddetin potansiyel olarak görülebildiği süreçlerdir. Ancak, bazı iç savaşların
sonucu olarak etnik temizlik gibi aşırı şiddet olayları görülse de bu durum her
iç savaş için geçerli değildir. Öyleyse, neden bazı iç savaşlar etnik temizliği doğururken
diğerleri doğurmaz? İç savaş ve ona dahil olan aktörlerle ilgili hangi faktörler bir etnik
temizlik olma olasılığını şekillendirir. Siyasal çatışma teorilerinin hangileri bu farklı
sonuçları daha iyi açıklar? Geçtiğimiz yüzyılın iki önemli iç savaşı, Lübnan İç Savaşı ve
Yugoslav Savaşları, üzerinden bu makale, bu savaşların ikincisinin bir etnik temizliğe
yol açarken ilkinin yol açmamış olduğunu açıklamak amacıyla, siyasal fırsatlar ve toplumsal
sıkıntılar ile ilgili hipotezleri test etmektedir. Bu teorilerin karşılaştırmalı vaka
analizleri çerçevesinde sistematik testlerinden hareketle bu çalışma, rejim değişimi ve
siyasal ve askeri hakimiyet gibi fırsatlarla ilintili faktörlerin iki vaka arasındaki farklılığı
açıklayabildiğini, ancak ekonomik hakimiyet ve nefret gibi toplumsal sıkıntılarla
alakalı faktörlerin sonuçları açıklayamadığını bulmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abraham, A. J. (1996). The Lebanon War. Westport, Conn: Praeger.
  • Bell-Fialkoff, A. (1993). A Brief History of Ethnic Cleansing. Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 110–121.
  • Besançon, M. (2005). Relative Resources: Inequality in Ethnic Wars, Revolutions, and Genocides. Journal of Peace Research, 42(4), 393.
  • Booth Walling, C. (2001). The History and Politics of Ethnic Cleansing. In K. Booth (Ed.), The Kosovo Tragedy (pp. 47–66). London: Frank Cass Publishers.
  • Cederman, L.-E., Hug, S., & Krebz, L. F. (2010). Democratization and Civil War: Empirical Evidence. Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), 377–394.
  • Cederman, L.-E., Weidmann, N. B., & Gledits, K. S. (2011). Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 478–495.
  • Cederman, L.-E., Wenger, A., & Hug, S. (2008). Democratization and War in Political Science. Journal of Peace Research, 15(3), 509–524.
  • Chua, A. (2003). World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability. New York: Doubleday.
  • Cigar, N. (1995). Genocide in Bosnia : The Policy of “Ethnic Cleansing.” College Station: Texas A & M University Press.
  • Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595.
  • Conversi, D. (2006). Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing and Nationalism. In G. Delanty & K. Kumar (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Nations and Nationalism (pp. 320–333). London: SAGE.
  • Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., Lindberg, S. I., Teorell, J., Altman, D., … Ziblatt, D. (2019). V-Dem Codebook v9. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.
  • Correlates of War. (2010). The New COW War Data, 1816 - 2007 (v4.0), Intra-state War Data Set. Retrieved from https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-war
  • Dekmejian, R. Hrair. (1975). Patterns of Political Leadership: Egypt, Israel, Lebanon. Albany: State University of New York Press.
  • Dekmejian, Richard Hrair. (1978). Consociational Democracy in Crisis: The Case of Lebanon. Comparative Politics, 10(2), 251–265.
  • Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review, 97(01), 75–90.
  • Fraser, N. (1997). Justice Interruptus: Critical Reflections on the “Postsocialist” Condition. New York: Routledge.
  • Freedom House. (2013). Freedom in the World Country Ratings. Retrieved from http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Country%20Status%20%26%20Ratings%20Overview%2C%201973-2013.pdf
  • Gagnon Jr., V. P. (1995). Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia. International Security, 19(3), 130–166.
  • Gaub, F. (2007). Multi-Ethnic Armies in the Aftermath of Civil War: Lessons Learned from Lebanon. Defence Studies, 7(1), 5–20.
  • Gilmour, D. (1983). Lebanon: The Fractured Country. Oxford: Martin Robertson&Co.
  • Gleditsch, K. S., & Ruggeri, A. (2010). Political Opportunity Structures, Democracy, and Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 47(3), 299–310.
  • Gurr, T. R. (2011). Why Men Rebel. Boulder, Colorado: Paradigm Publishers.
  • Hayden, R. (1996). Schindler’s Fate: Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, and Population Transfers. Slavic Review, 55(4).
  • Hegre, H., Ellingsen, T., Gates, S., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2001). Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992. American Political Science Review, 95(1), 33.
  • Hodson, R., Sekulic, D., & Massey, G. (1994). National Tolerance in the Former Yugoslavia. 99(6), 1534–1558.
  • Horowitz, D. L. (1993). Democracy in Divided Societies. Journal of Democracy, 4(4), 18–38.
  • Kalyvas, S. (2006). The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kalyvas, S., & Sambanis, N. (2005). Bosnia’s Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics. In P. Collier & N. Sambanis (Eds.), Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis (Vol. 2). Washington D.C.: The World Bank.
  • Kaplan, R. (1994). Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History. New York: Vintage books.
  • Lake, D., & Rothchild, D. (1996). Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security, 21(2), 41–75.
  • LeBor, A. (2002). Milosevic: A Biography. London: Bloomsbury.
  • Licklider, R. (1995). The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 681.
  • Lijphart, A. (1969). Consociational Democracy. World Politics, 21(2), 207–225.
  • Lijphart, A. (1977). Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. Yale University Press.
  • Makdisi, S. A. (2004). The Lessons of Lebanon: the Economics of War and Development. London; New York: I.B. Tauris.
  • Mann, M. (2005). The Dark Side of Democracy : Explaining Ethnic Cleansing. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mansfield, E. D., & Snyder, J. (1995). Democratization and the Danger of War. International Security, 20(1), 5–38.
  • Mansfield, E. D., & Snyder, J. (2002). Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War. International Organization, 56(2), 297–337.
  • Mansfield, E. D., & Snyder, J. (2008). Democratization and Civil War (Saltzman Working Paper No. No. 5).
  • Marshall, M. G., & Cole, B. R. (2011). Polity IV: Regime Authority Characteristics and Transitions Dataset. Retrieved from http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4v2011.sav
  • Mazowiecki, T. (1994). Report on the Situation of Human Rights in the Territory of the Former Yugoslavia (Sixth Periodic Report No. E/CN.4/1994/110). Geneva: UN.
  • McAdam, D. (1982). Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930-1970. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • McAdam, D., McCarthy, J. D., & Zald, M. N. (Eds.). (1996). Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings (First Edition edition). Cambridge England ; New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Moghalu, K. C. (2006). Global Justice: The Politics of War Crimes Trials. Greenwood Publishing Group.
  • Mulaj, K. (2005). On Bosnia’s Borders and Ethnic Cleansing. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 11, 1–24.
  • Naimark, N. (2001). Fires of Hatred: Ethnic Cleansing in Twentieth-Century Europe. Cambridge Mass.: Harvard University Press.
  • O’Ballance, E. (1995). Civil War in Bosnia, 1992-94. London/New York: Macmillan/St.Martin’s Press.
  • Odeh, B. J. (1985). Lebanon, Dynamics of Conflict: A Modern Political History. London: Zed Books.
  • Offe, C. (1992). Strong Causes, Weak Cures: Some Preliminary Notes on the Intransigence of Ethnic Politics. East European Constitutional Review, 1(1), 21–23.
  • Petersen, R. (2002). Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
  • Political Instability Task Force (PITF). (2019). State Failure Problem Set: Internal Wars and Failures of Governance, 1955-2018. Retrieved from https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
  • Qawanin al-Intikhab ba’da al-Istiqlal: Qanun 1960. (1960). Retrieved from https://www.lp.gov.lb/Resources/Files/1a38cf8b-1ff8-45e0-9e4c-f40b11b684e3.pdf
  • Rowayheb, M. G. (2011). Political Change and the Outbreak of Civil War: The Case of Lebanon. Civil Wars, 13(4), 414–436.
  • Rummel, R. J. (1997). Death by Government. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
  • Sadowski, Y. (1998). The Myth of Global Chaos. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Sambanis, N. (2004). What Is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(6), 814–858.
  • Smith, H. H., & Collelo, T. (1989). Lebanon: A Country Study (3rd ed.). Washington D.C.: Federal Research Division.
  • Somer, M. (2002). Insincere Public Discourse, Inter-group Trust, and Implications for Democratic Transition: the Yugoslav Meltdown Revisited. Journal for Institutional Innovation, Development and Transition, 6, 92–112.
  • Suleiman, M. W. (1967). Elections in a Confessional Democracy. The Journal of Politics, 29(1), 109–128.
  • Szayna, T. S., & Zanini, M. (2000). The Yugoslav Retrospective Case. In T. S. Szayna (Ed.), Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model (pp. 75–127). Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
  • Traboulsi, F. (2007). A History of Modern Lebanon. London: Pluto Press.
  • UCDP/PRIO. (2009). UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset 4-2009. Retrieved from https://www.prio.org/Data/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/Armed-Conflicts-Version-X-2009/
  • Vucinich, W. S., & Tomasevich, J. (1969). Contemporary Yugoslavia: Twenty Years of Socialist Experiment. Stanford: University of California Press.
  • Weitz, E. (2003). A Century of Genocide : Utopias of Race and Nation. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Wilkinson, S. (2004). Votes and Violence : Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
  • Woodward, S. L. (1995). Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution.

When do Civil Wars Breed Ethnic Cleansing? The Cases of Lebanon and Yugoslavia

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 265 - 290, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.31679/adamakademi.684177

Öz

Civil wars are episodes when ethnic violence is likely to be observed. However,
while some civil wars lead to extreme forms of violence such as ethnic cleansing,
this is not always the case for every civil war. Then why do some civil wars breed
ethnic cleansing and not others? What sort of factors that are related to the context
of the civil war and the involved actors shape the likelihood of an ethnic cleansing?
Which theories of political conflict explain these diverging outcomes better? Based
on two prominent civil wars of the last century, the Lebanese Civil War and the Yugoslav
Wars, this article tests the hypotheses on political opportunities and grievances
in order to explain why the latter led to an ethnic cleansing while the former
did not. Based on the systematic tests of these theories in comparative case studies,
the study finds that factors related to political opportunities such as regime change
and political and military dominance are more useful in explaining the variation
between the two cases whereas the factors that correspond with grievances such
as economic dominance and hatred do not explain the outcomes.

Kaynakça

  • Abraham, A. J. (1996). The Lebanon War. Westport, Conn: Praeger.
  • Bell-Fialkoff, A. (1993). A Brief History of Ethnic Cleansing. Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 110–121.
  • Besançon, M. (2005). Relative Resources: Inequality in Ethnic Wars, Revolutions, and Genocides. Journal of Peace Research, 42(4), 393.
  • Booth Walling, C. (2001). The History and Politics of Ethnic Cleansing. In K. Booth (Ed.), The Kosovo Tragedy (pp. 47–66). London: Frank Cass Publishers.
  • Cederman, L.-E., Hug, S., & Krebz, L. F. (2010). Democratization and Civil War: Empirical Evidence. Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), 377–394.
  • Cederman, L.-E., Weidmann, N. B., & Gledits, K. S. (2011). Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 478–495.
  • Cederman, L.-E., Wenger, A., & Hug, S. (2008). Democratization and War in Political Science. Journal of Peace Research, 15(3), 509–524.
  • Chua, A. (2003). World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability. New York: Doubleday.
  • Cigar, N. (1995). Genocide in Bosnia : The Policy of “Ethnic Cleansing.” College Station: Texas A & M University Press.
  • Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595.
  • Conversi, D. (2006). Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing and Nationalism. In G. Delanty & K. Kumar (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Nations and Nationalism (pp. 320–333). London: SAGE.
  • Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., Lindberg, S. I., Teorell, J., Altman, D., … Ziblatt, D. (2019). V-Dem Codebook v9. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.
  • Correlates of War. (2010). The New COW War Data, 1816 - 2007 (v4.0), Intra-state War Data Set. Retrieved from https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-war
  • Dekmejian, R. Hrair. (1975). Patterns of Political Leadership: Egypt, Israel, Lebanon. Albany: State University of New York Press.
  • Dekmejian, Richard Hrair. (1978). Consociational Democracy in Crisis: The Case of Lebanon. Comparative Politics, 10(2), 251–265.
  • Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review, 97(01), 75–90.
  • Fraser, N. (1997). Justice Interruptus: Critical Reflections on the “Postsocialist” Condition. New York: Routledge.
  • Freedom House. (2013). Freedom in the World Country Ratings. Retrieved from http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Country%20Status%20%26%20Ratings%20Overview%2C%201973-2013.pdf
  • Gagnon Jr., V. P. (1995). Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia. International Security, 19(3), 130–166.
  • Gaub, F. (2007). Multi-Ethnic Armies in the Aftermath of Civil War: Lessons Learned from Lebanon. Defence Studies, 7(1), 5–20.
  • Gilmour, D. (1983). Lebanon: The Fractured Country. Oxford: Martin Robertson&Co.
  • Gleditsch, K. S., & Ruggeri, A. (2010). Political Opportunity Structures, Democracy, and Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 47(3), 299–310.
  • Gurr, T. R. (2011). Why Men Rebel. Boulder, Colorado: Paradigm Publishers.
  • Hayden, R. (1996). Schindler’s Fate: Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, and Population Transfers. Slavic Review, 55(4).
  • Hegre, H., Ellingsen, T., Gates, S., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2001). Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992. American Political Science Review, 95(1), 33.
  • Hodson, R., Sekulic, D., & Massey, G. (1994). National Tolerance in the Former Yugoslavia. 99(6), 1534–1558.
  • Horowitz, D. L. (1993). Democracy in Divided Societies. Journal of Democracy, 4(4), 18–38.
  • Kalyvas, S. (2006). The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kalyvas, S., & Sambanis, N. (2005). Bosnia’s Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics. In P. Collier & N. Sambanis (Eds.), Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis (Vol. 2). Washington D.C.: The World Bank.
  • Kaplan, R. (1994). Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History. New York: Vintage books.
  • Lake, D., & Rothchild, D. (1996). Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security, 21(2), 41–75.
  • LeBor, A. (2002). Milosevic: A Biography. London: Bloomsbury.
  • Licklider, R. (1995). The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 681.
  • Lijphart, A. (1969). Consociational Democracy. World Politics, 21(2), 207–225.
  • Lijphart, A. (1977). Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. Yale University Press.
  • Makdisi, S. A. (2004). The Lessons of Lebanon: the Economics of War and Development. London; New York: I.B. Tauris.
  • Mann, M. (2005). The Dark Side of Democracy : Explaining Ethnic Cleansing. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mansfield, E. D., & Snyder, J. (1995). Democratization and the Danger of War. International Security, 20(1), 5–38.
  • Mansfield, E. D., & Snyder, J. (2002). Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War. International Organization, 56(2), 297–337.
  • Mansfield, E. D., & Snyder, J. (2008). Democratization and Civil War (Saltzman Working Paper No. No. 5).
  • Marshall, M. G., & Cole, B. R. (2011). Polity IV: Regime Authority Characteristics and Transitions Dataset. Retrieved from http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4v2011.sav
  • Mazowiecki, T. (1994). Report on the Situation of Human Rights in the Territory of the Former Yugoslavia (Sixth Periodic Report No. E/CN.4/1994/110). Geneva: UN.
  • McAdam, D. (1982). Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930-1970. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • McAdam, D., McCarthy, J. D., & Zald, M. N. (Eds.). (1996). Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings (First Edition edition). Cambridge England ; New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Moghalu, K. C. (2006). Global Justice: The Politics of War Crimes Trials. Greenwood Publishing Group.
  • Mulaj, K. (2005). On Bosnia’s Borders and Ethnic Cleansing. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 11, 1–24.
  • Naimark, N. (2001). Fires of Hatred: Ethnic Cleansing in Twentieth-Century Europe. Cambridge Mass.: Harvard University Press.
  • O’Ballance, E. (1995). Civil War in Bosnia, 1992-94. London/New York: Macmillan/St.Martin’s Press.
  • Odeh, B. J. (1985). Lebanon, Dynamics of Conflict: A Modern Political History. London: Zed Books.
  • Offe, C. (1992). Strong Causes, Weak Cures: Some Preliminary Notes on the Intransigence of Ethnic Politics. East European Constitutional Review, 1(1), 21–23.
  • Petersen, R. (2002). Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
  • Political Instability Task Force (PITF). (2019). State Failure Problem Set: Internal Wars and Failures of Governance, 1955-2018. Retrieved from https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
  • Qawanin al-Intikhab ba’da al-Istiqlal: Qanun 1960. (1960). Retrieved from https://www.lp.gov.lb/Resources/Files/1a38cf8b-1ff8-45e0-9e4c-f40b11b684e3.pdf
  • Rowayheb, M. G. (2011). Political Change and the Outbreak of Civil War: The Case of Lebanon. Civil Wars, 13(4), 414–436.
  • Rummel, R. J. (1997). Death by Government. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
  • Sadowski, Y. (1998). The Myth of Global Chaos. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Sambanis, N. (2004). What Is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(6), 814–858.
  • Smith, H. H., & Collelo, T. (1989). Lebanon: A Country Study (3rd ed.). Washington D.C.: Federal Research Division.
  • Somer, M. (2002). Insincere Public Discourse, Inter-group Trust, and Implications for Democratic Transition: the Yugoslav Meltdown Revisited. Journal for Institutional Innovation, Development and Transition, 6, 92–112.
  • Suleiman, M. W. (1967). Elections in a Confessional Democracy. The Journal of Politics, 29(1), 109–128.
  • Szayna, T. S., & Zanini, M. (2000). The Yugoslav Retrospective Case. In T. S. Szayna (Ed.), Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model (pp. 75–127). Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
  • Traboulsi, F. (2007). A History of Modern Lebanon. London: Pluto Press.
  • UCDP/PRIO. (2009). UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset 4-2009. Retrieved from https://www.prio.org/Data/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/Armed-Conflicts-Version-X-2009/
  • Vucinich, W. S., & Tomasevich, J. (1969). Contemporary Yugoslavia: Twenty Years of Socialist Experiment. Stanford: University of California Press.
  • Weitz, E. (2003). A Century of Genocide : Utopias of Race and Nation. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Wilkinson, S. (2004). Votes and Violence : Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
  • Woodward, S. L. (1995). Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution.
Toplam 67 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

M. Tahir Kılavuz 0000-0002-3827-3827

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Şubat 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Kılavuz, M. T. (2020). When do Civil Wars Breed Ethnic Cleansing? The Cases of Lebanon and Yugoslavia. Adam Academy Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 265-290. https://doi.org/10.31679/adamakademi.684177

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