İç Savaşlar Ne Zaman Etnik Temizlik Doğurur? Lübnan ve Yugoslavya Vakaları

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 265 - 290, 31.12.2020

M. Tahir Kılavuz

https://doi.org/10.31679/adamakademi.684177

Öz

İç savaşlar etnik şiddetin potansiyel olarak görülebildiği süreçlerdir. Ancak, bazı iç savaşların
sonucu olarak etnik temizlik gibi aşırı şiddet olayları görülse de bu durum her
iç savaş için geçerli değildir. Öyleyse, neden bazı iç savaşlar etnik temizliği doğururken
diğerleri doğurmaz? İç savaş ve ona dahil olan aktörlerle ilgili hangi faktörler bir etnik
temizlik olma olasılığını şekillendirir. Siyasal çatışma teorilerinin hangileri bu farklı
sonuçları daha iyi açıklar? Geçtiğimiz yüzyılın iki önemli iç savaşı, Lübnan İç Savaşı ve
Yugoslav Savaşları, üzerinden bu makale, bu savaşların ikincisinin bir etnik temizliğe
yol açarken ilkinin yol açmamış olduğunu açıklamak amacıyla, siyasal fırsatlar ve toplumsal
sıkıntılar ile ilgili hipotezleri test etmektedir. Bu teorilerin karşılaştırmalı vaka
analizleri çerçevesinde sistematik testlerinden hareketle bu çalışma, rejim değişimi ve
siyasal ve askeri hakimiyet gibi fırsatlarla ilintili faktörlerin iki vaka arasındaki farklılığı
açıklayabildiğini, ancak ekonomik hakimiyet ve nefret gibi toplumsal sıkıntılarla
alakalı faktörlerin sonuçları açıklayamadığını bulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İç Savaşlar, Etnik Şiddet, Siyasal Fırsatlar, Toplumsal Sıkıntılar, Yugoslavya, Lübnan

When do Civil Wars Breed Ethnic Cleansing? The Cases of Lebanon and Yugoslavia

Öz

Civil wars are episodes when ethnic violence is likely to be observed. However,

while some civil wars lead to extreme forms of violence such as ethnic cleansing,

this is not always the case for every civil war. Then why do some civil wars breed

ethnic cleansing and not others? What sort of factors that are related to the context

of the civil war and the involved actors shape the likelihood of an ethnic cleansing?

Which theories of political conflict explain these diverging outcomes better? Based

on two prominent civil wars of the last century, the Lebanese Civil War and the Yugoslav

Wars, this article tests the hypotheses on political opportunities and grievances

in order to explain why the latter led to an ethnic cleansing while the former

did not. Based on the systematic tests of these theories in comparative case studies,

the study finds that factors related to political opportunities such as regime change

and political and military dominance are more useful in explaining the variation

between the two cases whereas the factors that correspond with grievances such

as economic dominance and hatred do not explain the outcomes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Civil Wars, Ethnic Violence, Political Opportunities, Grievances, Yugoslavia, Lebanon

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