FİRMA DEĞERİNİ MAKSİMİZE EDECEK NAKİT AKIŞLARIN SİSTEM DİNAMİĞİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, firma değerinin hesaplanmasında sıkça kullanılan firmaya serbest nakit akımları, sistem dinamiği modeliyle belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma için BİST-100 endeksinde işlem gören bir firma seçilmiş ve finansal verileri analiz edilerek firmanın nakit akım projeksiyonu oluşturulmuştur. Sistem dinamiği modeliyle firmanın gelecekteki nakit akımları belirli senaryolar altında çalıştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, sistem dinamiği modeli ile firmanın gelecekteki nakit akımlarının başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edilebildiğini göstermektedir. Sistem dinamiğinin etkili biri stratejik yönetim muhasebesi tekniği olarak kullanılabileceği ve firma yöneticilerinin firma değerini en yükseğe çıkaracak kararları verirken ihtiyaç duyacakları verileri sağlayabileceği değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Firma Değeri
• Sistem Dinamiği
• Stratejik Yönetim Muhasebesi
• Nakit Akışı

THE ANALYSIS OF CASH FLOWS MAXIMIZING THE FIRM VALUE THROUGH THE APPROACH OF SYSTEM DYNAMİCS

Öz

In this study, it was practiced to adopt free cash flows to firm which is frequently used in calculating the firm value through the system dynamics model. For the study, a firm traded at Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100) was chosen and the firm’s cash flow projection was created by analyzing its financial data. Future cash flows of the firm were exercised under certain scenarios via system dynamics model. The results exhibit that the future cash flows of the firm can be predicted successfully through the system dynamics model. It is considered that the system dynamics can be used as an efficient strategic management accounting technique and that it can provide the data which the business executives will require when making the optimal decisions maximizing the firm value.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Firm Value
• System Dynamics
• Strategic Management Accounting
• Cash Flows

Kaynakça

1. Acaravci Kakilli, S., Ural, T., and Karaömer, Y. (2018). Analyzing Factors Affecting Stock Return and Capital Structure Relationship via Structural Equation Modeling. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 6(4), 26–38. https://doi.org/10.32479/IICD.152
2. Aksu, İ. (2013). System Dynamics Approach in Budgeting. Medipres.
3. Aksu, İ., Söyler, H., and Eren, M. (2014). System Dynamics Model of A Production Firm. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 14(28), 69–104. https://doi.org/10.30976/susead.302203
4. Altan, M., and Karahan, N. S. (2016). Company Valuation Through Free Cash Flow To Firm, Free Cash Flow To Equity and Economic Value Added Methods: An Application To Comparative From BIST Index. The Journal of Selcuk University Social Sciences Institute, 35, 11–23.
5. Aust, V., Pelger, C., and Drefahl, C. (2021). Exploring the relationship between valuation and stewardship uses of accounting information: Empirical evidence from German listed firms. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 42, 100375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2020.100375
6. Azeem Qureshi, M. (2007). System dynamics modelling of firm value. Journal of Modelling in Management, 2(1), 24–39. https://doi.org/10.1108/17465660710733031/FULL/PDF
7. Bose, S., Shams, S., Ali, M. J., and Mihret, D. (2022). COVID‐19 impact, sustainability performance and firm value: international evidence. Accounting and Finance, 62(1), 597–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12801
8. Çetiner, M., and Özöğüt, A. (2018). Discounted Cash Flow Method For Firm Valuation With An Application on A Firm. Journal Of Institute of Economic Development And Social Researches, 4(9), 346–356.

9. Chambers, N. (2009). Firma Değerlemesi. Beta Basım.
10. Damodaran, A. (2001). Corporate Finance Theory and Practice. John Wileyand Sons Inc.
11. Demir, V., and Bahadır, O. (2007). IFRS Booking Value Approach to Company Within The Scope of Appraisal Measurement in TFRS. Accounting and Auditing Review, 23, 65–79.
12. Ercan, M. K., Öztürk, M. B., and Demirgüneş, K. (2003). Value-Based management and intellectual capital. Gazi Kitabevi.
13. Hatipoğlu, M., and Yener, E. (2013). Discounted Cash Flow Method for Firm Valuation: An Empirical Evidence from BIST- Electricity Index. Eskişehir Osmangazi University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 8(3), 7–29.
14. Hernawati, R. I., Ghozali, I., Yuyetta, E. N. A., and Prastiwi, A. (2021). The Effect of Income and Earnings Management on Firm Value: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(4), 105–112. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2021.VOL8.NO4.0105
15. İvgen, H. (2003). Şirket Değerleme. Finnet Yayın.
16. Khan, A., Qureshi, M. A., and Davidsen, P. I. (2021). A system dynamics model of capital structure policy for firm value maximization. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 38(4), 503–516. https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.2693
17. Martínez-Sola, C., García-Teruel, P. J., and Martínez-Solano, P. (2013). Trade credit policy and firm value. Accounting and Finance, 53(3), 791–808. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2012.00488.x
18. Özer, G., and Çam, İ. (2016). The Role of Human Capital in Firm Valuation: An Application on BIST. Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, 235, 168–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.11.012
19. Pamukçu, A., and Akarçay Öğüz, A. (2014). Role and Importance of Intellectual Capital in Firm Valuation. Oneri, 11(42), 69–87. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/165862
20. Pernsteiner, H., and Sümer, H. (2004). Şirket Birleşmeleri. In Birleşme ve Satın Almalarda İşletme Değerlemesi. Alfa Publishing.
21. School, P. F. (2007). Company valuation methods. The most common errors in valuations. In IESE Business. University of Navara. https://notendur.hi.is/~ajonsson/kennsla2006/Valuation.pdf
22. Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
23. Ünvan, Y. A. (2019). Firm Valuation Approaches an Application on Turkish Airlines (THY). Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(30), 930–944. https://doi.org/10.20875/makusobed.640267
24. Yalçın, H. (2014). Şirket Değerlemesi, Teori ve Uygulama. Uygulama Yayıncılık.