Depremlerin Yerel Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye’de Kısa ve Uzun Vadeli GSYİH Kayıplarının Afet Risk Yönetimi Açısından Analizi

Öz

Depremler, üretim ve hizmet faaliyetlerini aksatarak yerel ve ulusal ölçekte önemli ekonomik riskler oluşturur. Bu çalışma, 2004–2023 döneminde Türkiye’de meydana gelen büyük depremlerin iller bazındaki ekonomik etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun il bazlı Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) verileri ile en az 5,5 Mw büyüklüğündeki depremlere ilişkin resmi kayıtlar birleştirilerek 81 il için dengeli bir panel veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Depremlerin kısa ve uzun vadeli ekonomik etkileri, sabit etkili farkların farkı (difference-in-differences (DiD)) modeli ile incelenmiştir. Bulgular, deprem yılı için GSYİH’de ortalama %3,5’lik anlamlı düşüş (p<0,05) olduğunu, ancak bu etkinin birinci yılda %–1,2’ye gerileyerek istatistiksel önemini kaybettiğini ve ikinci yıldan itibaren anlamlı bir fark bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Sanayi ve ihracat odaklı iller deprem sonrası toparlanmada avantajlı olurken, hizmet ağırlıklı iller görece yavaş toparlanmıştır. Yeniden inşa faaliyetlerinin yoğun olduğu illerde ikinci yıldan itibaren geçici bir büyüme ivmesi görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlar, afet sonrası ilk yılın kritik öneme sahip olduğunu, hızlı finansal destek ve altyapı onarımının kısa vadeli ekonomik kayıpları telafi ettiğini; uzun vadede ise önleyici planlama ve dirençli kalkınma politikalarının belirleyici rol oynadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Afet Yönetimi
• Bölgesel Kalkınma
• Deprem
• Farkların Farkı Yöntemi
• Panel Veri Analizi
• Yerel Ekonomik Etkiler

Local Economic Impacts of Earthquakes: An Analysis of Short-Long Term GDP Losses in Turkiye from a Disaster Risk Management Perspective

Öz

Earthquakes create significant economic risks by disrupting production and service activities. This study analyzes the provincial economic impacts of major earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye between 2004 and 2023. A balanced panel dataset covering 81 provinces was constructed by combining province-level Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Turkish Statistical Institute with official records of earthquakes of at least 5.5 Mw magnitude. The short- and long-term economic impacts of earthquakes were examined using a fixed-effects difference-in-differences (DiD) model. The findings show a significant average decline of 3.5 % in GDP during the earthquake year (p < 0.05), but this effect diminishes to –1.2 % in the first post-disaster year, losing statistical significance, and remains insignificant from the second year onward. Provinces with strong industrial and export bases recovered more quickly, while service-oriented provinces experienced slower recovery. In provinces with intensive reconstruction activities, a temporary growth surge was observed from the second year. Overall, the results highlight that the first year after a disaster is critical: rapid financial support and infrastructure repair can compensate for short-term economic losses, while preventive planning and resilient development policies play a decisive role in the long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Difference-in-Differences Method
• Disaster Management
• Earthquake
• Local Economic Impacts
• Panel Data Analysis
• Regional Development

Kaynakça

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