Yavaş Gelişen Bir Afet Olarak İklim Krizi: Sahel Bölgesi’nde Çevresel Çöküş ve İklim Mültecileri

Öz

Bu makale, Sahel Bölgesi’nde iklim krizinin ani çevresel şoklardan ziyade zamana yayılan, kümülatif etkiler üreten yavaş gelişen bir afet biçiminde ortaya çıkışını uluslararası ilişkiler disiplini çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Nitel vaka çalışması desenine dayanan araştırma, Sahel’i ana vaka; Çad Gölü Havzası ve Nijer’deki Agadez göç koridorunu alt analiz birimleri olarak ele almaktadır. Bulgular, iklim değişikliğinin bölgedeki ekolojik, ekonomik ve yönetsel kırılganlıkları yoğunlaştıran bir “tehdit çarpanı” olarak işlediğini göstermektedir. Analizler, Çad Gölü Havzası’ndaki hidrolojik belirsizliklerin ve yüzey alanı kaybının, geleneksel geçim kaynaklarını erozyona uğratarak etno-politik gerilimleri ve zorunlu göçü tetiklediğini ampirik olarak ortaya koymaktadır. Agadez vakasından elde edilen veriler ise, Avrupa Birliği’nin sınır dışsallaştırma stratejilerinin yerel hareketlilik pratiklerini bozduğunu, göç yollarını kriminalize ettiğini ve insan kaçakçılığı ağlarını güçlendirerek insani kırılganlıkları derinleştirdiğini kanıtlamaktadır. Ayrıca, çevresel bozulma nedeniyle yerinden edilen nüfusların 1951 Cenevre Sözleşmesi’nin tanımsal sınırları sebebiyle uluslararası mülteci rejimi içinde kurumsal bir boşlukta kaldığı ve “hayatta kalma göçü” arafına itildiği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, Sahel’deki iklim kaynaklı hareketliliğin küresel eşitsizlikler ve yönetişim zafiyetleriyle iç içe geçmiş çok boyutlu bir olgu olduğunu vurgulamakta; güvenlik merkezli yaklaşımlar yerine kırılganlıkların azaltılmasını hedefleyen iklim adaleti odaklı politikaların geliştirilmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Göçün Güvenlikleştirilmesi
• İklim Krizi
• İklim Mültecileri
• Sahel Bölgesi
• Yavaş Gelişen Afetler

The Climate Crisis as a Slow-Onset Disaster: Environmental Collapse and Climate Refugees in the Sahel Region

Öz

This article examines the climate crisis in the Sahel Region as a slow-onset disaster producing cumulative effects over time, rather than sudden environmental shocks, within an international relations framework. Based on a qualitative case study design, the research treats the Sahel as the main case, with the Lake Chad Basin and Niger’s Agadez migration corridor as embedded subunits of analysis. Findings demonstrate that climate change operates as a “threat multiplier,” intensifying existing ecological, economic, and governance vulnerabilities. Analyses empirically reveal that hydrological uncertainties and surface area loss in the Lake Chad Basin erode traditional livelihoods, triggering ethno-political tensions and forced migration. Meanwhile, data from the Agadez case prove that the European Union’s border externalization strategies disrupt local mobility practices, criminalize migration routes, and deepen human vulnerabilities by strengthening human smuggling networks. Furthermore, populations displaced by environmental degradation fall into an institutional void within the international refugee regime due to the 1951 Geneva Convention’s definitional limits, pushing them into the limbo of “survival migration.” Ultimately, the study emphasizes that climate-induced mobility in the Sahel is a multidimensional phenomenon intertwined with global inequalities and governance failures, arguing for proactive, climate justice-oriented policies aimed at reducing vulnerabilities rather than security-centric migration management.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate Crisis
• Climate Refugees
• Sahel Region
• Securitization of Migration
• Slow-Onset Disasters

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