Taşkın Risk Yönetiminde Sosyal Faktörlerin Değerlendirilmesi ve Doğu Karadeniz Havzası için Risk Algısı Yönetim Önerisi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 172 - 194, 29.03.2024

Tuğçe Anılan Mahmut Cenk Sayıl Osman Yüksek Selahattin Bayram

https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.1360768

Öz

Son yıllarda, taşkın risk algısının ve vatandaşların koruyucu önlemlere ilişkin bilgi düzeylerinin ve farkındalıklarının değerlendirilmesi, yenilikçi entegre taşkın yönetim stratejilerinin oluşturulmasında odak noktası haline gelmektedir. Bu kapsamda, risk algısı, taşkın farkındalığı, hazırlıklı olma durumu ve sosyo-ekonomik dinamikler gibi sosyal bileşenlerin de mühendislik planlamalarıyla birlikte ele alınması taşkın risk yönetimi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışma öncelikle, taşkın riski altındaki bölgelerde vatandaşların risk algısı, farkındalığı ve hazırlıklı olma durumları hakkında literatürde yapılmış çalışmalar hakkında bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır. Ardından taşkınlara sıklıkla maruz kalan Doğu Karadeniz Havzası için taşkın farkındalığı oluşturma yönetim planı önerilmiştir. Bu önerilerin oluşturulmasında literatürdeki mevcut çalışmaların sonuçları da dikkate alınmış ve bölge için uygulanabilirliği değerlendirilmiştir. Toplumun afet bilincini ve dayanıklılığını artırmak konusunda çocukların bilinçlendirilmesinin son derece önemli olduğu vurgulanmıştır. Ayrıca; eğitim faaliyetleri, taşkın müzesi ve ziyaretleri, belli periyotlarda anket uygulanması ve değerlendirmeleri, halkın taşkın erken uyarılara karşı güveninin sağlanması, taşkın izi faaliyet çalışmaları, taşkın tatbikatlarına halkın katılımı, psikolojik destek ve rehberlik birimi oluşturulması ve diğer öneriler değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hazırlıklı Olma Durumu, Taşkın Farkındalığı, Taşkın Risk Algısı, Taşkın Risk Yönetimi

Assessment of Social Factors that Influence Flood Risk Management and Risk Perception Management Proposal for Eastern Black Sea Basin

Öz

Assessing flood risk perception and the level of knowledge of citizens regarding protective measures is becoming a pillar for generating innovative integrated flood management strategies. It is very essential in terms of flood risk management to consider social expectations such as risk perception, flood awareness, preparedness, and socio-economic dynamics together with engineering designs. This study primarily aims to provide an evaluation of the studies in the literature on the risk perception, awareness and preparedness of citizens in areas under flood risk. Then, a flood awareness management plan was proposed for the Eastern Black Sea Basin, which is frequently exposed to floods. While formulating these recommendations, results of the existing studies in the literature were taken into account and their feasibilities for the region were evaluated. The fact that raising awareness of children is of vital importance for improving the disaster consciousness and resilience of the society was emphasized. Moreover; educational activities, flood museum and visitings, implementation and evaluation of questionnaires at certain periods of time, ensuring people’s trust in earl flood warnings, flood mark activities, participation of people in flood drills, establishing a psychological support and guidance unit and other suggestions were evaluated.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Flood Awareness, Flood Risk Perception, Flood Risk Management, Preparedness

Kaynakça

• Adelekan, I. O. (2011). Vulnerability assessment of an urban flood in Nigeria: Abeokuta flood 2007. Natural Hazards, 56, 215-231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9564-z
• Akçalı, E. (2021). Flood museum, the 8th International Conference on Flood Management, USA.
• Akçalı, E., Anılan, T. (2021). Doğu Karadeniz Havzası’nda taşkın ve rüsubat kontrolünde yenilikçi uygulamalar. In: Beyazlı D (ed) Doğu Karadeniz doğal çevre tartışmaları, 1. Baskı. Livre de Lyon, Lyon, pp 67-85
• Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Thielen, J. (2012). Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy, 21, 35-49.
• Anılan, T., Yaylalı, M. (2014). Taşkın ve heyelan riski altındaki alanlarda anket çalışması: Doğu Karadeniz örneği. Türkiye Mühendislik Haberleri Dergisi (TMH), (482), 42-50.
• Anılan, T., Yüksek, Ö. (2017). Perception of flood risk and mitigation: survey results from the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Natural Hazards Review, 18(2), 05016006. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000232
• Anılan, T., Durmuş, H., Akçalı, E., Yüksek, Ö. (2021). Taşkın farkındalık ve erken uyarı sistemleri değerlendirmesi: Trabzon Beşikdüzü örneği, Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 7(1): 110-123. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.722798
• Armaş, I., Avram, E. (2009). Perception of flood risk in Danube Delta, Romania. Natural Hazards, 50, 269-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9337-0
• Becker, G., Aerts, J. C., Huitema, D. (2014). Influence of flood risk perception and other factors on risk‐reducing behaviour: a survey of municipalities along the R hine. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 7(1), 16-30. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12025
• Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Aerts, J. C. (2012). A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior. Risk analysis: An International Journal, 32(9), 1481-1495. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01783.x
• Bradford, R. A., O'Sullivan, J. J., Van der Craats, I. M., Krywkow, J., Rotko, P., Aaltonen, J., Schelfaut, K. (2012). Risk perception–issues for flood management in Europe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(7), 2299-2309. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2299-2012
• Brilly, M., Polic, M. (2005). Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5(3), 345-355. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-345-2005
• Demir V., 2020. Samsun Mert Havzası’nda bir ve iki boyutlu modeller ile taşkın alanlarının belirlenmesi, Doktora tezi, Ondokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Samsun.
• Demir, V., Keskin, A. Ü. (2020). Obtaining the Manning roughness with terrestrial-remote sensing technique and flood modeling using FLO-2D: A case study Samsun from Turkey. Geofizika, 37(2), 131-156.
• Demir, V., Kisi, O. (2016). Flood hazard mapping by using geographic information system and hydraulic model: Mert River, Samsun, Turkey. Advances in Meteorology, 2016.
• Gautam, D. K., Phaiju, A. G. (2013). Community based approach to flood early warning in West Rapti River Basin of Nepal. IDRiM Journal, 3(1), 155-169. Gorączko, M. (2021). Flood marks in Poland and their significance in water management and flood safety education. Management of Water Resources in Poland, 253-267.
• Grothmann, T., Reusswig, F. (2006). People at risk of flooding: Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not. Natural Hazards, 38, 101-120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8604-6
• Hagemeier-Klose, M., Wagner, K. (2009). Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(2), 563-574. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-563-2009
• Hashim, H. M., Ng, Y. G., Talib, O., Tamrin, S. B. M. (2021). Factors influencing flood disaster preparedness initiatives among small and medium enterprises located at flood-prone area. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 60, 102302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102302
• Heller, K., Alexander, D. B., Gatz, M., Knight, B. G., Rose, T. (2005). Social and personal factors as predictors of earthquake preparation: the role of support provision, network discussion, negative affect, age, and education 1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 35(2), 399-422. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2005.tb02127.x
• Jonkman, S. N. (2005). Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods. Natural Hazards, 34(2), 151-175.
• Kadıoğlu, M. (2005). Afete Hazırlık Eğitim Çalışmaları, 3. İstanbul ve Deprem Sempozyumu, 240.
• Kadıoğlu, M., Helvacıoğlu, İ., Okay, N., Tezer, A., Trabzon, L., Türkoğlu, H., Ünal, Y.S., Yiğiter, R. (2005). Okullar için afet yönetimi ve acil yardım planı kılavuzu, İTÜ Afet Yönetim Merkezi Yayınları.
• Karancı, N. (2005). Afetlere hazırlıklı olma davranışlarının psikolojik boyutları, 3. İstanbul ve Deprem Sempozyumu.
• Kaya, Ç. M. (2018). Taşkın riskinin belirlenmesinde sosyo-demogrofik ve sosyo-ekonomik özelliklerin önemi. Afet ve Risk Dergisi, 1(1), 53-62. https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.417652
• Knocke, E. T., Kolivras, K. N. (2007). Flash flood awareness in southwest Virginia. Risk analysis: An International Journal, 27(1), 155-169. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00866.x
• Konur, K. B., Vekli, G. S., Şeyihoğlu, A., Tekbıyık, A., Kartal, A. (2023). Afet eğitimi ve disiplinlerarası öğretim: öğretmenler ne düşünüyor? Afet ve Risk Dergisi, 6(2), 575-596. https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.1247735
• Korkanç, S. Y., Korkanç, M. (2006). Sel ve taşkınların insan hayatı üzerindeki etkileri. Bartın Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(9), 42-50.
• Krasovskaia, I., Gottschalk, L., Sælthun, N. R., Berg, H. (2001). Perception of the risk of flooding: the case of the 1995 flood in Norway. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 46(6), 855-868. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660109492881
• Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005). Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures–lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5(1), 117-126.
• Kimura, N., Yamashiki, Y., Kisić, I. (2014). Awareness-raising of flood risk and building resilience among children in Zagreb, Croatia. Hydrological Research Letters, 8(1), 64-70. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.8.64
• Koks, E. E., Jongman, B., Husby, T. G., Botzen, W. J. (2015). Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management. Environmental Science & Policy, 47, 42-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.10.013
• Kousky, C., Kunreuther, H. (2010). Improving flood insurance and flood-risk management: Insights from St. Louis, Missouri. Natural Hazards Review, 11(4), 162-172. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000021
• Lechowska, E. (2022). Approaches in research on flood risk perception and their importance in flood risk management: a review. Natural Hazards, 111(3), 2343-2378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05140-7
• Lin, S., Shaw, D., Ho, M. C. (2008). Why are flood and landslide victims less willing to take mitigation measures than the public? Natural Hazards, 44, 305-314. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9136-z
• Lindell, M. K., Perry, R. W. (2000). Household adjustment to earthquake hazard: A review of research. Environment and Behavior, 32(4), 461-501.
• Liu, D., Li, M., Li, Y., Chen, H. (2022). Assessment of public flood risk perception and influencing factors: An example of Jiaozuo City, China. Sustainability, 14(15), 9475. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159475
• Miceli, R., Sotgiu, I., Settanni, M. (2008). Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 28(2), 164-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2007.10.006
• Mondino, E., Scolobig, A., Borga, M., Di Baldassarre, G. (2020). The role of experience and different sources of knowledge in shaping flood risk awareness. Water, 12(8), 2130. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082130
• Oubennaceur, K., Chokmani, K., Lessard, F., Gauthier, Y., Baltazar, C., Toussaint, J. P. (2022). Understanding flood risk perception: A case study from Canada. Sustainability, 14(5), 3087.
• Owusu, S., Wright, G., Arthur, S. (2015). Public attitudes towards flooding and property-level flood protection measures. Natural Hazards, 77, 1963-1978. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1686-x
• Pagneux, E., Gísladóttir, G., Jónsdóttir, S. (2011). Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods. Natural Hazards, 58, 269-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9665-8
• Parker, D. J., Priest, S. J., Tapsell, S. M. (2009). Understanding and enhancing the public's behavioural response to flood warning information. Meteorological applications: A Journal of Forecasting, Practical Applications, Training Techniques and Modelling, 16(1), 103-114.
• Rollason, E., Bracken, L. J., Hardy, R. J., Large, A. R. G. (2018). Rethinking flood risk communication. Natural Hazards, 92, 1665-1686. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3273-4
• Santoro, S., Totaro, V., Lovreglio, R., Camarda, D., Iacobellis, V., Fratino, U. (2022). Risk perception and knowledge of protective measures for flood risk planning. The case study of Brindisi (Puglia region). Safety Science, 153, 105791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105791
• Shah, A. A., Gong, Z., Ali, M., Sun, R., Naqvi, S. A. A., Arif, M. (2020). Looking through the Lens of schools: Children perception, knowledge, and preparedness of flood disaster risk management in Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50, 101907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101907
• Shah, A. A., Ajiang, C., Gong, Z., Khan, N. A., Ali, M., Ahmad, M., Shahid, A. (2022). Reconnoitering school children vulnerability and its determinants: Evidence from flood disaster-hit rural communities of Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 70, 102735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102735
• Siegrist, M., Gutscher, H. (2006). Flooding risks: A comparison of lay people's perceptions and expert's assessments in Switzerland. Risk Analysis, 26(4), 971-979. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00792.x
• Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü, (2017). Taşkın Yönetimi. Ankara: T.C. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü.
• Şeyihoğlu, A., Kartal, A., Tekbıyık, A., Vekli, G. S., Birinci Konur, K. (2021). The design and implementation of a teacher training program for improving teachers' disaster literacy: Interdisciplinary disaster education program (IDEP). Problems of Education in the 21st Century, 79. https://doi.org/10.33225/pec/21.79.781
• Şeyihoğlu, A., Kartal, A., Vekli., G.S., Birinci Konur, K. (2023). Çevrimiçi öğrenme ortamında afet eğitimine bir örnek: dijital afet eğitimi. Eurasian Conference on Language Social Sciences, 25-26 Şubat 2023, Lithuania.
• Takao, K. (2003). Factors determining disaster preparedness in residents: Differences in terms of homeownership and age. Kawasaki Journal of Medical Welfare, 9(1), 21-29.
• Takao, K., Motoyoshi, T., Sato, T., Fukuzondo, T., Seo, K., Ikeda, S. (2004). Factors determining residents’ preparedness for floods in modern megalopolises: The case of the Tokai flood disaster in Japan. Journal of Risk Research, 7(7-8), 775-787. https://doi.org/10.1080/1366987031000075996
• Terpstra, T. (2011). Emotions, trust, and perceived risk: Affective and cognitive routes to flood preparedness behavior. Risk analysis: An International Journal, 31(10), 1658-1675. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01616.x
• Terpstra, T., Gutteling, J. M. (2008). Households' perceived responsibilities in flood risk management in the Netherlands. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 24(4), 555-565. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620801923385
• Thieken, A. H., Kreibich, H., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2007). Coping with floods: preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany in 2002. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5), 1016-1037. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.5.1016
• Thistlethwaite, J., Henstra, D., Brown, C., Scott, D. (2018). How flood experience and risk perception influences protective actions and behaviours among Canadian homeowners. Environmental Management, 61(2), 197-208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0969-2
• Eryılmaz Türkkan, G., Hırca, T. (2021). The investigation of flood risk perception as a quantitative analysis from socio-demographic perspective. Natural Hazards, 106(1), 715-733. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04488-6
• URL 1, https://www.tworvgypsies.us/!USA-trip8-2015/48a-grand-forks-nd.html (Son Erişim: 23.03.2024)
• URL 2, https://www.alamy.com/flood-water-levels-plaque-waterside-stratford-upon-avonwarwickshir e-image4140544.html (Son Erişim: 23.03.2024)
• URL 3, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Murrumbidgee_flood_marker,_Gundagai,_NSW,_Australi a.jpg (Son Erişim: 23.03.2024)
• Yıldız, A., Dickinson, J., Priego‐Hernández, J., Teeuw, R. (2023). Children's disaster knowledge, risk perceptions, and preparedness: A cross‐country comparison in Nepal and Turkey. Risk Analysis, 43(4), 747-761. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13937
• Yıldız, A., Teeuw, R., Dickinson, J., Roberts, J. (2021). Children's perceptions of flood risk and preparedness: A study after the May 2018 flooding in Golcuk, Turkey. Progress in Disaster Science, 9, 100143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100143
• Yüksek, Ö., Anılan, T., Akçalı, E. (2021). Doğu Karadeniz havzası taşkın yönetimi, Doğu Karadeniz Doğal Çevre Tartışmaları, Prof. Dr. Dilek Beyazlı, editör, Livre de Lyon, Lyon, 1-25.
• Yüksek, Ö., Babacan, H. T., Yüksek, O. (2022). Doğu Karadeniz Havzası’nda taşkın sebepleri, zararları ve taşkın yönetimi çalışmaları. Türk Hidrolik Dergisi, 6(2), 36-46.
• Wang, Z., Wang, H., Huang, J., Kang, J., Han, D. (2018). Analysis of the public flood risk perception in a flood-prone city: The case of Jingdezhen city in China. Water, 10(11), 1577. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111577
• Zaleskiewicz, T., Piskorz, Z., Borkowska, A. (2002). Fear or money? Decisions on insuring oneself against flood. Risk, Decision and Policy, 7(3), 221-233. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357530902000662