LOCALISING AND GLOBALISING THE DEPOPULATION DIVIDEND: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM THREE COUNTRIES IN THREE WORLD REGIONS

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 1 - 28, 29.06.2022

Peter Matanle Luis Antonio Sáez-pérez Yang Lı Emily Buehler

Öz

We bring together evidence from three countries in differing world regions to ask whether or how depopulation is delivering socio-environmental gains – what we call a ‘depopulation dividend’. We first discuss the depopulation problem itself and introduce the idea of a ‘depopulation dividend’, and we present research on national and sub-national depopulation processes in each country, beginning with demographic and environmental change in Japan. Following that we introduce socio-economic outcomes in Spain and New Zealand. Overall, we present a positive perspective on depopulation – an issue that is usually presented in the negative – and we localize and globalize Japan’s, Spain’s, and New Zealand’s experiences therein.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Depopulation, Environment, Japan, Spain, New Zealand

Kaynakça

• Akamatsu, K. (1962). Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries, The Developing Economies, 1, 3–25.
• Attenborough, D. (2009). How Many People Can Live on Planet Earth? BBC2 Horizon Special.
• Bagavos, C. (2019). On the Multifaceted Impact of Migration on the Fertility of Receiving Countries: Methodological Insights and Contemporary Evidence for Europe, the United States, and Australia, Demographic Research, 41 (1), 1-36.
• Bartolini, S. and Sarracino, F. (2014). Happy for How Long? How Social Capital and Economic Growth Relate to Happiness over Time, Ecological Economics, 108, 242-256.
• Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2003). The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change, Santa Monica, CA: The Rand Corporation.
• Bongaarts, J. (2016). Development: Slow Down Population Growth, Nature, 530, 409-412.
• Boston, J. and Eichbaum, C. (2014). New Zealand’s Neoliberal Reforms: Half a Revolution, Governance, 27 (3), 373-376.
• Bové, H. et al (2019). Ambient Black Carbon Particles Reach the Fetal Side of Human Placenta, Nature Communications, 10, 3866.
• Campbell, J.C. (2008). Japan’s Aging Population: Perspectives of “Catastrophic Demography”, Journal of Asian Studies, 67 (4), 1401-1406.
• Collantes, F. and Pinilla, V. (2011). Peaceful Surrender: The Depopulation of Rural Spain in the Twentieth Century, Cambridge: Cambridge Scholars Publishing.
• Collantes, F., Pinilla, V., Saez, L.A. and Silvestre, J. (2014). Reducing Depopulation in Rural Spain: The Impact of Immigration, Population, Space and Place, 20 (7), 606-621.
• Crist, E., Mora, C., and Engelman, R. (2017). The Interaction of Human Population, Food Production, and Biodiversity Protection, Science, 356 (6335), 260-264.
• Colman, D. and Rowthorn, R. (2011). Who’s Afraid of Population Decline: Who’s Afraid of its Consequences, Population and Development Review, 37 (Supplement), 217-248.
• Downey, L. (2015). Inequality, Democracy and the Environment, New York: New York University Press.
• Economist (2018). A Startling Amount of Land in Japan has no Official Owner, Online: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/03/17/a-startling-amount-of-land-in-japan-has-no-official-owner (Accessed 17 April 2022).
• Eriksen, T.H. (2016). Overheating: An Anthropology of Accelerated Change, London: Pluto Press. GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators (2020). Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, 396 (10258), 1160-1203.
• Ghosh, A. (2016). The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
• Gil, F., Bayona, J. and Pujadas, I. (2015). Las migraciones internas de los extranjeros en España: Dinámicas espaciales recientes bajo el impacto de la crisis, Boletín de la Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles, 69, 233-261.
• Goodell, J. (2019). 415: The Most Dangerous Number, Rolling Stone, https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/climate-change-mauna-loa-carbon-dioxide-measurement-834627/ (Accessed 19 April 2022).
• Göttmark, F. and Maynard, R. (10 September, 2019). The World and the UN Must Reduce Population Growth, Project Syndicate, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-sdg-dampen-population-growth-by-frank-gotmark-and-robin-maynard-2019-09 (Accessed 17 April 2022).
• Henley, W.E. (2018 [1875 / 1888]). Invictus, Book of Verses (Vol. 1), London: David Nutt.
• IEA (2018). World Energy Model Documentation 2018 Version, International Energy Agency. http://www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/energymodel/WEM2018.pdf (Accessed 21 April 2022).
• IGN (2018). Instituto Geográfico Nacional. Online: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal (Accessed 21 April 2022).
• IUCN (2016 and 2019). ‘Summary Statistics’, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Online: http://www.iucnredlist.org/ (Accessed 23 April 2022).
• Jackson, N. (2014). Sub-National Depopulation in Search of a Theory – Towards a Diagnostic Framework, New Zealand Population Review, 40, 3-39.
• Jackson, N. and Cameron, M.P. (2018). The Unavoidable Nature of Population Ageing and the Ageing-Driven End of Growth – an Update for New Zealand, Journal of Population Ageing, 11 (3), 239-264.
• Jones, M. (15 September, 2019). A New Take on Old Japan: That’s Omori, The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2019/sep/15/omori-village-hiroshima-japan-sustainable-traditional-abeke-gungendo-shibusa (Accessed 1 April 2022)
• Kassam, A. et al (23 August, 2015) Europe needs many more babies to avert a population disaster, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/23/baby-crisis-europe-brink-depopulation-disaster (Accessed 21 March 2022).
• Katayama, N. et al (2015). A review of post-war changes in rice farming and biodiversity in Japan, Agricultural Systems, 132, 73-84.
• Kato, H. (5 September, 2018). We need a sense of crisis over depopulation, Japan Times, Online: https://tinyurl.com/ybvyngpm (Accessed 23 March 2022).
• Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic Transition Theory, Population Studies, 50 (3), 361-387.
• Klien, S. (2010). Contemporary Art and Regional Revitalisation: Selected Artworks in the Echigo-Tsumari Art Triennial 2000–6, Japan Forum, 22 (3-4), 513-543.
• Klien, S. (2016). Reinventing Ishinomaki, Reinventing Japan? Creative Networks, Alternative Lifestyles and the Search for Quality of Life in Post-growth Japan, Japanese Studies, 36 (1), 39-60.
• Klien, S. (2020). Urban Migrants in Rural Japan: Between Agency and Anomie in Post-Growth Society, New York: SUNY Press.
• Koch, A., Brierley, C., Maslin, M. M. and Lewis, S.L. (2019). Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492, Quaternary Science Reviews, 207, 13-36.
• Kojima, K. (2000). The “Flying Geese” Model of Asian Economic Development: Origin, Theoretical Extensions, and Regional Policy Implications, Journal of Asian Economics, 11, 375-401.
• Kurochkina, K. (2022). Japanese Rural Resettlers: Communities with Newcomers as Heterotopic Spaces, Asian Anthropology, 21 (1), 53-65.
• Lerch, M. (2019). Fertility Decline in Urban and Rural Areas of Developing Countries, Population and Development Review, 45 (2), 301-320.
• Li, Q. and Reuveny, R. (2006). Democracy and Environmental Degradation, International Studies Quarterly, 50 (4), 935-956.
• Loughlin, N.J.D., Gosling, W.D., Mothes, P. and Montoya, E. (2018). Ecological Consequences of Post-Columbian Indigenous Depopulation in the Andean–Amazonian Corridor, Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2, 1233-1236.
• Martine, G., Alves, J.E. and Cavenaghi, S. (2013). Urbanization and Fertility Decline: Cashing in on Structural Change, IIED Working Paper. London: International Institute for Environment and Development.
• Matanle, P. (2017). Towards an Asia-Pacific Depopulation Dividend in the 21st Century: Regional Growth and Shrinkage in Japan and New Zealand, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, 15 (6).
• Matanle, P., Rausch, A.S. with The Shrinking Regions Research Group (2011). Japan’s Shrinking Regions in the 21st Century: Contemporary Responses to Depopulation and Socioeconomic Decline, Amherst, NY: Cambria Press.
• Matanle, P. and Sáez Pérez, L.A. (2019). Searching for a Depopulation Dividend in the 21st Century: Perspectives from Japan, Spain and New Zealand, Journal of the Japanese Institute of Lansdscape Architecture, 83 (1).
• Matanle, P. and Sato, Y. (2010). Coming Soon to a City Near You! Learning to Live ‘Beyond Growth’ in Japan’s Shrinking Regions, Social Science Japan Journal, 13 (2), 187-210.
• Matsutani, A. (2006). Shrinking Population Economics: Lessons from Japan, Tokyo: International House of Japan.
• McNeill, J.R. and Engelke, P. (2014). The Great Acceleration: An Environmental History of the Anthropocene since 1945, Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.
• METI (2022). Enerugii shōhi tōkei (Energy consumption statistics), Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/statistics/energy_consumption/index.html (Accessed 21 March 2022).
• MIC (2022). Statistics Bureau of Japan. Online: https://www.stat.go.jp/english/index.html (Accessed 29 March 2022)..
• Midlarsky, M.I. (1998). Democracy and the Environment: An Empirical Assessment, Journal of Peace Research, 35 (3), 341-361.
• Mittermeier, R.A. et al (2005). Hotspots Revisited: Earth's Biologically Richest and Most Endangered Terrestrial Ecoregions (Revised Edition), Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
• Mizohata, S. (2010). Le Vieillissement Rural Revisité: L´Approche par les Capabilités en Action, PhD Dissertation, Paris: Paris Descartes University.
• Nel, E. (2015). Recent Trends in Regional and Local Demographic and Economic Inequality in New Zealand and Associated Regional Development Implications, Local Economy, 30 (1), 12-20.
• Nel, E. and Stevenson, T. (2014). The Catalysts of Small Town Economic Development in a Free Market Economy: A Case Study of New Zealand, Local Economy, 29 (4-5), 486-502.
• NOAA (2019). ‘Carbon dioxide levels hit record peak in May’, in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Website. Online at: https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2461/Carbon-dioxide-levels-hit-record-peak-in-May (Accessed 6 April 2022).
• Normile, D. (2016). Nature from Nurture, Science, 351 (6276), 908-910.
• Nussbaum, M.C. and Sen, A. (eds) (1993). The Quality of Life, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
• Roser, M., Ritchie, H., and Ortiz-Osina, E. (2019). World Population Growth, Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth (Accessed 1 April 2022).
• Ripple, W.J. et al (2017). World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice, BioScience, 67 (12), 1026-1028.
• Sachs, J.D. (2008). The Specter of Malthus Returns, Scientific American, 299 (3), 38.
• Sáez, L. A. (2021). Análisis de la Estrategia Nacional frente a la Despoblación en el Reto Demográfico en España, Ager: Revista de Estudios sobre Despoblacion y Desarrollo Rural, 33, 7-34.
• Serrano Martínez, J.M. (1993). Estructura y dinámica del sistema urbano del eje mediterráneo español, Papeles de Geografía, 19, 157-181.
• Siedentop, S. and Fina, S. (2010). Urban Sprawl beyond Growth: The Effect of Demographic Change on Infrastructure Costs, Flux, 79-80 (1), 90-100.
• Sims, A. and Ward, J. (2017). Regional Population Projections for Newfoundland and Labrador 2016-2036, Memorial University of Newfoundland Harris Centre Regional Analytics Laboratory. https://tinyurl.com/ychmuovp (Accessed 1 March 2022).
• Sousa, S. and Pinho, P. (2015). Planning for Shrinkage: Paradox or Paradigm, European Planning Studies, 23 (1), 12-32.
• Stats NZ (2022) Population. https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/population (Accessed 21 March 2022).
• Telleria, J. and Garcia-Arias, J. (2021). The Fantasmatic Narrative of ‘sustainable development’: A Political Analysis of the 2030 Global Development Agenda. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 40 (1), 241-259.
• Tietjen, A. and Jørgensen, G. (2016). Translating a Wicked Problem: A Strategic Planning Approach to Rural Shrinkage in Denmark, Landscape and Urban Planning, 154, 29-43.
• Tyner, C. (2015). Struggling with Complex Natures in the Ogasawara Islands. In B.L. Batten and P.C. Brown (Eds) Environment and Society in the Japanese Islands: From Prehistory to the Present, Corvallis, OR: Oregon University Press, 158-173.
• Uchida, K. and Ushimaru, A. (2014). Biodiversity Declines Due to Abandonment and Intensification of Agricultural Lands: Patterns and Mechanisms, Ecological Monographs, 84 (4), 637-658.
• Ujikane, K. (2017). Millennial Movers Revive Japanese Mountain Towns Amid Depopulation, Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/03/15/national/millennial-movers-revive-japanese-mountain-towns-amid-depopulation/ (Accessed 29 March 2022).
• UNPD (2001). Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? United Nations Population Division. https://tinyurl.com/m8jpuhp (Accessed 29 April 2022).
• UNPD (2019). World Population Prospects 2019, United Nations Population Division. https://population.un.org/wpp/ (Accessed 9 March 2022).
• Valle Ramos, C.D. (2021). De la ciudad a la sierra: el valor ambiental, los vínculos familiares y el modo de vida como factores de atracción de neorrurales. Revista Internacional de Estudios Migratorios, 11 (2), 96-117.
• Walker, B. (2010). Toxic Archipelago: A History of Industrial Disease in Japan, Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press.
• Wallace-Wells, D. (2019). Uninhabitable Earth: A Story of the Future, London: Allen Lane.
• World Bank (2022). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/.
• WWF (2020). Living Planet Report 2020 - Bending the Curve of Biodiversity Loss, WWF.
• Xiang, W.N. (2013). Working with Wicked Problems in Socio-ecological Systems: Awareness, Acceptance, and Adaptation, Landscape and Urban Planning, 110, 1-4.
• Yoshida, Y., Matsuda, H., Fukushi, K., Takeuchi, K. and Watanabe, R. (2022). The Missing Intangibles: Nature’s Contributions to Human Wellbeing through Place Attachment and Social Capital, Sustainability Science, 1-14.