Türkiye’de Anemone coronaria L.’nin günümüz ve gelecekteki potansiyel dağılım alanlarının modellenmesi ve haritalanması

Öz

Giriş ve Hedefler Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de doğal yayılış gösteren önemli bir geofit türü olan Anemone coronaria L.’nin, mevcut ve gelecekteki potansiyel dağılım alanlarının tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Yöntemler Türün potansiyel dağılım modellemesi ve haritalaması, MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) yöntemi kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Analizlerde güncel iklim verileri WorldClim veri tabanından, geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlar ise 2100 yılına ait dört farklı SSP (Sosyo-Ekonomik Yollar) senaryosuna göre UKESM1 0LL küresel iklim modeli çıktılarından elde edilmiştir. Türün var verileri, Küresel Biyoçeşitlilik Bilgi Tesisi (GBIF) veri tabanından temin edilmiştir. Bulgular Modelleme sonuçlarına göre, modelin eğitim veri seti AUC değeri 0.938, test veri seti AUC değeri ise 0.933 olarak belirlenmiş ve model “mükemmel” kategorisinde yer almıştır. Türün potansiyel dağılımını etkileyen çevresel değişkenler, yıllık Yağış (BIO12), en sıcak çeyreğin yağışı (BIO18), yıllık sıcaklık aralığı (BIO7), engebe ve yükselti olmuştur. Günümüzde A. coronaria’nın Ege, Akdeniz ve Güney Marmara kıyı kuşağında yüksek uygunluk gösteren alanlarda yoğunlaştığı ortaya koyulmuştur. Geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlarda ise, iklim değişikliğinin şiddetine bağlı olarak potansiyel dağılım alanlarında farklı oranlarda daralmalar öngörülmüştür. Sonuçlar A. coronaria’nın iklim değişikliğine yüksek duyarlılık gösterdiğini ve gelecekte potansiyel dağılım alanlarının olası daralmasının türün ekolojik, estetik ve kültürel değerlerini olumsuz yönde etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir. Çalışma, hem A. coronaria’nın sürdürülebilir yönetimine katkı sağlamakta hem de Akdeniz florasına özgü hassas türlerin korunmasına yönelik model niteliğinde bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği
• geofit
• MaxEnt
• Akdeniz ekosistemleri
• tür dağılım modellemesi
• SSP senaryoları

Modelling and mapping of current and future potential distribution areas of Anemone coronaria L. in Türkiye

Öz

Background and Aims This study aim to predict the current and future potential distribution areas of Anemone coronaria L., an important geophyte species naturally distributed in Türkiye. Methods The species’ potential distribution modelling and mapping were conducted using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) method. Current climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database, while future projections for the year 2100 were derived from the UKESM1-0LL global climate model outputs under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Species occurrence records were sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. Results The modelling results indicated that the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were 0.938 for the training dataset and 0.933 for the test dataset, classifying the model’s performance as “excellent.” The environmental variables on the species’ potential distribution were Annual Precipitation (BIO12), Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (BIO18), Temperature Annual Range (BIO7), ruggedness, and elevation. Currently, A. coronaria shows high habitat suitability concentrated along the coastal zones of the Aegean, Mediterranean, and southern Marmara regions. Future projections suggest varying degrees of habitat contraction depending on the severity of climate change. Conclusions A. coronaria is highly sensitive to climate change and that future habitat contraction could adversely affect its ecological, aesthetic, and cultural values. This study contributes to the sustainable management of A. coronaria and provides a model framework for the conservation of other climate-sensitive Mediterranean flora.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• geophyte
• MaxEnt
• Mediterranean ecosystems
• species distribution modeling
• SSP scenarios

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