DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, TİCARİ SERBESTLEŞME VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 10, 189 - 202, 30.12.2018

Kemal Erkişi

Öz

Bu çalışmada,
doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ticari serbestleşme ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki
nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Analiz, Türkiye için 1998Q1-2018Q1
arasındaki 20 yıllık dönemde 81 gözlemi kapsamaktadır.  Analizde, ADF birim kök, Engel Granger
eş-bütünleşme, Granger nedensellik, VAR ayrıştırma ve VAR etki-tepki test ve
teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre; ithalat, ihracat,
doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve iktisadi büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki
yoktur. İktisadi büyümenin yaklaşık % 75’i GSYİH tarafından, % 15’i ithalat, %
5’i doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve %5’i ise ihracat tarafından açıklanmaktadır.
Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve ihracatın, büyüme üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel
olarak anlamlı değildir.  GSYİH ve
ithalat, iktisadi büyüme üzerinde ilk iki çeyrekte istatistiksel olarak anlamlı
çıkmasına karşın, sonraki çeyreklerde anlamlılığını yitirmektedir. Sonuç
olarak, Türkiye’de ithalat ve GSYİH, iktisadi büyümenin çok kısa dönemde belirleyicisi
iken, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracatın büyüme üzerindeki etkileri
anlamlı değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, DYY, Ticari Serbestleşme, Ticari Açıklık, Ticari Liberalizasyon

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY

Öz

In this study, the causality between foreign
direct investment, trade openness and economic growth was investigated. The analysis covers 81 observations during the 20 years between 1998Q1-2018Q1 for export, import, FDI and GDP of Turkey. ADF
unit root, Engel Granger co-integration, Granger causality, VAR Decomposition,
VAR Impulse- Response tests and techniques were
employed in the analysis. According to the results, economic growth is
explained by GDP at a 75% level, by import at a 15% level, by foreign direct
investments at a 5% level and by export at a 5% level. However, the impacts of
foreign direct investment and export on economic growth are not statistically
significant. GDP and import are statistically
significant on economic growth in the
first two quarters, but insignificant for
subsequent quarters. There is a uni-directional causality from import to economic growth.  As a result, import and GDP are the
determinants of economic growth in very short-term, while the effects of
foreign direct investments and exports on growth are insignificant in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Trade Liberalisation

Kaynakça

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