DETERMINATION OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING COTTON EXPORT OF TURKEY: A PANEL GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Yıl 2020, Cilt 7, Sayı 13, 547 - 564, 31.05.2020

Fatma Feyza GÜNDÜZ Özlem AKAY Selim GÜNDÜZ Celile ÖZÇİÇEK DÖLEKOĞLU

Öz

Turkey has the ecological characteristics adequate to cotton farming and thus it plays an important role in production and trade worldwide. Determining the significant factors affecting the trade of cotton, which is an important product both for exports and imports and revealing whether these factors differentiate by national and global dynamics or not is considerably important. In this study, the factors affecting cotton export of Turkey between the years of 2002 and 2017 are analysed by using gravity model and panel data method. It is determined that Turkey's cotton export has a positive relationship with gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita values, population and EU membership of the countries to which Turkey exports cotton and a negative relationship with Linder variable. On the other hand, the variable of border neighborhood does not have a statistically significant effect on Turkey's cotton export either since the share of these countries in total cotton exports is quite low compared to EU member countries. In conclusion, factors that may increase the competitive advantage in potential markets should be taken into consideration in terms of new market opportunities as the distance of trading countries does not have any effect. Particularly, policies of USA and China which are effective in world's market are important variables for Turkey as they are for other countries. Therefore, the policies of these countries should be carefully monitored when making any regulation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cotton, Export, Gravity Model

TÜRKİYE’NİN PAMUK İHRACATINI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN BELİRLENMESİ: BİR PANEL ÇEKİM MODELİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

          Türkiye pamuk tarımına uygun ekolojik özelliklere sahip olduğundan dünya üretimi ve ticaretinde önemli bir yerdedir. Gerek ihracat gerekse de ithalatta önemli bir ürün olan pamuğun ticaretinde önemli olan etkenlerin belirlenmesi, ülkelere ve küresel dinamiklere göre bu etkenlerin farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığının ortaya konulması oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada 2002-2017 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin pamuk ihracatını etkileyen faktörler çekim modeli kullanılarak panel veri yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin pamuk ihracatının, ihraç ettiği ülkelerin gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve kişi başına düşen gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla değerleri, nüfus ve AB üyesi olması değişkenleri ile pozitif, Linder değişkeni ile ise negatif yönde ilişkili olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca ülkelerin sınır komşuluğu değişkeninin, Türkiye’ye komşu ülkelerin toplam pamuk ihracatındaki payının AB ülkelerine kıyasla oldukça düşük olmasından dolayı, Türkiye'nin pamuk ihracatı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ticaret yapan ülkeler arasındaki mesafenin bir etkisi olmadığı için potansiyel pazarlarda rekabet avantajını artırabilecek faktörler yeni pazar fırsatları açısından dikkate alınmalıdır. Özellikle dünya pazarında etkili olan ABD ve Çin politikaları, diğer ülkeler için olduğu gibi Türkiye için de önemli değişkenlerdir. Bu nedenle, herhangi bir düzenleme yapılırken bu ülkelerin politikaları dikkatle izlenmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pamuk, İhracat, Çekim Modeli

Kaynakça

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