AIR POLLUTION, HEALTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST CO2 EMISSION

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 15, 269 - 288, 26.04.2021

İsmail Cem Ay

Öz

Raising disposable income per capita due to economic growth enables people to benefit more from education and health services. This situation improves the quality of human capital and ultimately affects economic growth positively. On the other hand, air pollution can adversely affect labor productivity, reducing industrial production and output level, thus economic growth. There are feedback loops among economic growth, air pollution and human health. In this study, the interactions between air pollution, which is determined as an indicator of environmental degradation, economic growth and infant mortality, which is the indicator of health, is modeled and analyzed. The long and the short-term relationships are tested by three different Panel ARDL Methods for 41 countries with the highest CO2 emission. It is concluded that there is no relationship among air pollution-health and economic growth in the short-therm. However, in the long-term, a 1% raise in CO2 emission increases infant mortality by 0.181%, and a 1% raise in GDP per capita decreases infant mortality by 0.179%. Even considering only the air pollution variable, the impact of economic growth on health cannot eliminate the benefits gained from growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Air Pollution, Health

HAVA KİRLİLİĞİ, SAĞLIK VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME ETKİLEŞİMİ: EN YÜKSEK CO2 EMİSYONUNA SAHİP ÜLKELER İÇİN BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

İktisadi büyüme ile artan kişi başına harcanabilir gelir, insanların eğitim ve sağlık hizmetlerinden daha fazla yararlanmasına imkân vermektedir. Bu durum beşeri sermayenin kalitesini artırmakta ve sonuçta ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Öte yandan, hava kirliliği işgücü verimliliğini olumsuz etkileyebilmekte, endüstriyel üretimi ve çıktı seviyesini ve dolayısıyla ekonomik büyümeyi azaltabilmektedir. Bu bağlamda iktisadi büyüme, hava kirliliği ve insan sağlığı arasında döngüsel bir ilişki olduğu söylenebilir. Bu çalışmada çevresel bozulmanın bir göstergesi olarak belirlenen hava kirliliği, ekonomik büyüme ve sağlığın göstergesi olan bebek ölümleri arasındaki etkileşimler modellenmiş ve analiz edilmiştir. Uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler, en yüksek CO2 salınımına sahip 41 ülke için üç farklı Panel ARDL yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Kısa dönemde, hava kirliliği bebek ölümleri ve iktisadi büyüme arasında bir ilişki olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, uzun dönemde CO2 salınımına % 1'lik bir artış bebek ölümlerini % 0.181 artırırken, kişi başına GSYH’deki % 1'lik artış bebek ölümlerini % 0.179 azaltmaktadır. Çevresel bozulma göstergelerinden biri olan hava kirliliği değişkeni dikkate alındığında dahi ekonomik büyümenin sağlık üzerindeki etkisinin büyümeden elde edilen faydaları ortadan kaldırdığı görülmektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Hava Kirliliği, Sağlık

Kaynakça

• Aragon, F. M., Miranda, J. J. and Oliva, P. (2017). “Particulate matter and labor supply: the role of caregiving and non-linearities,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Volume 86: 295-309, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.02.008.
• Barro, R. (1990). "Government Spending in a simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, Vol 98, no. 5. [Part 2.], S103-S125.
• Becker, G. S. (2007). Health as Human Capital: Synthesis and Extensions. Oxford Economic Papers, 59, 379–410.
• Bhargava, A., Jamison, D. T., Lau, L. J., Murray, C. J. (May 2001). Modelling the Effects of Health on Economic Erowth. Journal of Health Economics. 1; 20(3):423–40. PMID: 11373839
• Biggs, R., Westley, F. R. and Carpenter S. R. (2010). Navigating the Back Loop: Fostering Social İnnovation and Transformation in Ecosystem Management. Ecology and Society 15(2):9.
• Cervellati, M. and Sunde, U. (2005). Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development. American Economic Review, 95, 1653–1672.
• Cervellati, M. and Sunde, U. (2015). The Effect of Life Expectancy on Education and Population Dynamics. Empirical Economics, 48, 1445–1478.
• Chay, K. Y. and Greenstone, M. (2003). “The Impact of Air Pollution on Infant Mortality: Evidence from Geographic Variation in Pollution Shocks Induced by a Recession,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (3), 1121–1167.
• Shuai, C., Oliva, P. and Zhang, P. (2017). “The Effect of Air Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China,” Technical Report 24036, National Bureau of Economic Research
• Cohen, A. J., Brauer, M., Burnett, R., Anderson, H. R., Frostad, J., Estep, K., Balakrishnan, K., Brunekreef, B., Dandona, L., Dandona, R. et al., (2017). “Estimates and 25-year Trends of the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: An Analysis of Data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015,” The Lancet, 389 (10082), 1907–1918.
• Currie, J., Hanushek, E. A., Kahn, E. M., Neidell, M. and Rivkin, S. G. (2009). “Does Pollution Increase School Absences?ˮ The Review of Economics and Statistics 91 (4): 682–694.
• Currie, J. and Neidell, M. (2005). “Air Pollution and İnfant Health: what can We Learn from California’s Recent Experience?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120 (3), 1003–1030
• Deaton, A. (2013). The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of İnequality. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Dell, M., Jones, B. F. and Olken, B. A. (2012). “Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century.ˮ American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4 (3): 66–95.
• Deryugina, T., Heutel, G., Miller, N. H., Molitor, D. and Reif, J. (2019). "The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction." American Economic Review, 109 (12): 4178-4219. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20180279
• Du, Y., Xu, X., Chu, M., Guo, Y. and Wang, J. (2016). “Air Particulate Matter and Cardiovascular Disease: The Epidemiological, Biomedical and Clinical Evidence,” Journal of Thoracic Disease, 8 (1), E8.
• Erkişi, K. and Çelik, D. (2020). The Relationship between CO2 Emission, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: A case of Turkey. MANAS Journal of Social Studies. 9(1), 1-15.
• Fayissa, B. and Gutema, P. (2005). "Estimating a Health Production Function for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 155-164.
• Fuchs, V. R. (2004). More Variation in use of care, more flat-of-the-curve Medicine. Health Aff (Millwood). Suppl Variation: VAR104-7. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.var.104. PMID: 15471787.
• Gangadharan, L. and Valenzuela, M. R. (2001). Interrelationships between Income, Health and the Environment: Extending the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Ecological Economics, 36(3), 513-531.
• Graff-Zivin, J. and Neidell, M. (2013). “Environment, Health, and Human Capital,” Journal of Economic Literature, 51(3), 689–730.
• Graff-Zivin, J. and Neidell, M. (2012). “The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity,” The American Economic Review, 102 (7), 3652–3673.
• Grossman, G. M. and Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Papers, 3914.
• Hanna, R. and Oliva, P. (2015). “The Effect of Pollution on Labor Supply: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Mexico City,” Journal of Public Economics, 122, 68–79
• Hansen, C. W. (2014). Cause of death and development in the US. Journal of Development Economics, 109, 143–153.
• Holub, F., Hospido, L. and Wagner, U. J. (2016). “Air Pollution and Labor Supply: Evidence from Social Security Data,” Environment Economics Seminar November 7, 2016, 11:00–12:15. Room MS 001.
• Jerrett, M., Burnett, R. T., Ma, R., Pope, C.A., Krewski, D., Newbold, K.B., Thurston, G., Shi, Y., Finkelstein, N., Calle, E.E., Thun, M.J. (2005). Spatial Analysis of Air Pollution and Mortality in Los Angeles. Epidemiology 16, 727–736.
• Kuznets, S. (1955). “Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, American Economic Review, 49, pp. 1-28.
• Lorentzen, P., McMillan, J., and Wacziarg, R. (2008). Death and development. Journal of Economic Growth, 13, 81–124.
• Luca, D. L., Iversen, J. H., Lubet, A. S., Mitgang, E., Onarheim, K. H., Prettner, K. and Bloom, D. E. (2018). Benefits and Costs of the Women’s Health Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda, In Prioritizing Development: A Cost Benefit Analysis of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, edited by Bjorn Lomborg, Cambridge University Press, 244-254.
• Lucas, R. E. (1988). “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.ˮ Journal of Monetary Economic,s 22 (1): 3–42.
• Mankiw, N. G., D. Romer, and Weil, D. (1992). “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.ˮ Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (2): 407–438.
• Pope, C. A. III, Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K. and Thurston, G. D. (2002). “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution,” 287 (9), 1132–1141.
• Poterba, J. M., and Summers, L. H. (1987). Public Policy Implications of Declining Old-Age Mortality. NBER Working Paper 934.
• Raffin, N. and Seegmuller, T. (2012). “Longevity, Pollution and Growth”, Economic Working Papers, University of Paris West, on 2012-47
• Ransom, M. R. and Pope, C. A. III. (1992). “Elementary School Absences and PM10 Pollution in Utah Valley,” Environmental Research, 58 (1-2), 204–219
• Romer, P. (1986). "Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, pp. 1002-1037.
• Romer, P. (1990) "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, 1990, Vol. 98, no. 5, [part 2], pp. S71-S102.
• Schlenker, W. and Walker, W. R. (2016). “Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health.” Review of Economic Studies 83 (2):768–809.
• Selden, T. M. and Song, D. (1994). Environmental Quality and Development: Is there a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution? Journal of Environmental Economics and Environmental Management, 27, 147–162.
• Shahbaz, M. and Sinha, A. (2018). Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emission: A Literature Survey. MPRA Paper No. 86281. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/86281/
• Soheila, K. Y. and Khanalizadeh, B. (2017) Air Pollution, Economic Growth and Health Care Expenditure, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30:1, 1181-1190, DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2017.1314823
• Weil, D. N. (2015). A review of Angus Deaton’s “the Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality.” Journal of Economic Literature, 53, 102–114. World Health Organization, “Burden of Disease from Ambient Air Pollution for 2012,” Technical Report 2012.
• Zhang, J., and Zhang, J. (2005). The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107, 45