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TÜRKİYE’DE MALİYE POLİTİKASI İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ UZUN VADELİ İLİŞKİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt 8, Sayı 17, 51 - 70, 29.12.2021

Öz

Maliye politikasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkinliği kamu maliyesi literatüründe hala çok tartışılan bir konudur. Bu konuda Türkiye için literatürde tutarlı sonuçlar içeren, yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan kapsamlı ekonometrik modeller kullanan güncel bir ampirik çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışmamız 1980 – 2017 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Türkiye için maliye politikası ile büyüme oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de maliye politikasın ekonomik büyümeyi uzun ve kısa vadede nasıl etkilediğini anlamaktır. Bu ilişkinin analizi için otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modeli (ARDL) kullanılmış ve sınır testi yapılmıştır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin maliye politikası etkinliğini ölçme noktasında ARDL sınır testi metodunu kullanan ve tutarlı sonuçlar veren ilk çalışmadır. Ayrıca, çalışmamız daha önceki çalışmalarda göz ardı edilen değişkenleri dikkate alması bakımından da literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bütçe dengesinin maliye politikası duruşunu ifade ettiği modelimizin sonuçları uzun vadede maliye politikasının çıktı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Ancak, modelimizin kısa vadeli sonuçlarına göre kısa vadede maliye politikasının büyüme üzerindeki etkinliği ispatlanamamıştır. 

Kaynakça

  • Abd Rahman, N. H. (2012, January). The Relationship Between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth from Malaysia’s Perspective: an ARDL Approach. In 2012 International Conference on Economics, Business Innovation. Vol. 38, pp. 54-58.
  • Abdullah, H., Yien, L. C. and Khan, M. A. (2019). The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries. International Journal of Supply Chain Management. 8, 1, pp. 754-760.
  • Adam, C. S. and Bevan, D. L. (2005). Fiscal Deficits and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of public economics, 89(4), pp. 571-597.
  • Ahmad, N. (2013). The Role of Budget Deficit in the Economic Growth of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 13(5).
  • Ali, S., Irum, S. and Ali, A. (2008). Whether Fiscal Stance or Monetary Policy is Effective for Economic Growth in Case of South Asian Countries? The Pakistan Development Review, pp. 791-799.
  • Altug, S., Filiztekin, A. and Pamuk, Ş. (2008). Sources of Long-Term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880–2005. European Review of Economic History, 12(3), pp. 393-430.
  • Arestis, P., Şen, H. and Kaya, A. (2019). Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis. Panoeconomicus, pp. 1-24.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), pp. 177–200.
  • Auerbach, A. J., & Kotlikoff, L. J. (1987). Dynamic fiscal policy. Cambridge University Press.
  • Barro, R. J. (1977). Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in The United States. American Economic Review 67 (2), pp. 101–115.
  • Başar, S., & Temurlenk, M. S. (2007). Investigating crowding-out effect of government spending for Turkey: a structural VAR approach. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 95-104.
  • Benos, N. (2009). Fiscal Policy and Economic growth: Empirical Evidence from EU Countries. MPRA Paper 19174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Bernheim, B. D. (1989). A neoclassical perspective on budget deficits. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 55-72.
  • Berument, H. (2007). Measuring Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy: Turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(2), pp. 411-430.
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2013). Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. American Economic Review, 103(3), 117-20.
  • Broner, F. A., Lorenzoni, G. and Schmukler, S. L. (2013). Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term? Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(suppl_1), pp. 67-100.
  • Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). When is the government spending multiplier large? Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78-121.
  • Diamond, P. A. (1965) "National Debt and Neo-classical Economic Growth," American Economic Review, 55, 1125-1150.
  • Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 32 No. 3, pp. 417-58.
  • Eken, S., Helbling, T. and Mazarei, A. (1997). Fiscal Policy and Growth in The Middle East and North Africa Region. Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund. 97/101.
  • Engen, E. M. and Skinner, J. (1992). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth. National Bureau of Economic Research. No. w4223.
  • Fatima, G., Ahmed, M. and Rehman, W. (2012). Consequential Effects of Budget Deficit on Economic Growth of Pakistan. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(7).
  • Ibrahim, A. K. and Khan, S. M. (2019). Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Economics and Business, 33(1), pp. 50-68.
  • Khosravi, A. and Karimi, M. S. (2010). To Investigation the Relationship between Monetary, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Iran: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 7(3), pp. 415-419.
  • Koray, F., McMillin, W. D., 1999. Monetary Shocks, the Exchange Rate, and the Trade Balance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 925–940.
  • Madni, G. R. and Chaudhary, M. A. (2017). Economic Growth in Context of Institutions and Fiscal Policy. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55(1), pp. 79-98.
  • Ocran, M. K. (2011). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in South Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(5), pp. 604-618.
  • Özer, M. and Karagöl, V. (2018). Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Growth in Turkey: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), pp. 391-409.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), pp. 289-326.
  • Premchand, A. (1984). Government Budgeting and Expenditure Controls: Theory and Practice. IMF, Washington, DC.
  • Şen, H., and Kaya, A. (2015). The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Growth: What Does Long-Run SVAR Model Tell Us? MPRA Paper, 65903.
  • Tanzi, V. and Zee, H. H. (1997). Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 44(2), pp. 179-209.
  • Yıldırım, M. O. and Yağcıbaşı, Ö. F. (2019). The Dynamics of House Prices and Fiscal Policy Shocks in Turkey. Economic Annals-XXI, 64(220), pp. 39-59.

THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Yıl 2021, Cilt 8, Sayı 17, 51 - 70, 29.12.2021

Öz

The effectiveness of the fiscal policy on the economic growth is still a much-debated issue in the public finance literature. Current studies for Turkey analyzing this issue, have not a comprehensive econometric model with coherent results. In this vein, our study investigates the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth in Turkey for the period 1980-2017. The main aim of the study is to understand how the fiscal policy affects the economic growth in Turkey both in the short and long run. We employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the bounds test to detect the long-run relationship. This is the first study, having coherent results and a correctly specified model, using ARDL to test the long-run effectiveness of the fiscal policy in Turkey. Using the budget balance indicator as the fiscal policy stance, our long-run ARDL results reveal that the fiscal policy is a significant determinant of the output in the long run. However, it is shown that the fiscal policy is not effective in the short run.

Kaynakça

  • Abd Rahman, N. H. (2012, January). The Relationship Between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth from Malaysia’s Perspective: an ARDL Approach. In 2012 International Conference on Economics, Business Innovation. Vol. 38, pp. 54-58.
  • Abdullah, H., Yien, L. C. and Khan, M. A. (2019). The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries. International Journal of Supply Chain Management. 8, 1, pp. 754-760.
  • Adam, C. S. and Bevan, D. L. (2005). Fiscal Deficits and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of public economics, 89(4), pp. 571-597.
  • Ahmad, N. (2013). The Role of Budget Deficit in the Economic Growth of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 13(5).
  • Ali, S., Irum, S. and Ali, A. (2008). Whether Fiscal Stance or Monetary Policy is Effective for Economic Growth in Case of South Asian Countries? The Pakistan Development Review, pp. 791-799.
  • Altug, S., Filiztekin, A. and Pamuk, Ş. (2008). Sources of Long-Term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880–2005. European Review of Economic History, 12(3), pp. 393-430.
  • Arestis, P., Şen, H. and Kaya, A. (2019). Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis. Panoeconomicus, pp. 1-24.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), pp. 177–200.
  • Auerbach, A. J., & Kotlikoff, L. J. (1987). Dynamic fiscal policy. Cambridge University Press.
  • Barro, R. J. (1977). Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in The United States. American Economic Review 67 (2), pp. 101–115.
  • Başar, S., & Temurlenk, M. S. (2007). Investigating crowding-out effect of government spending for Turkey: a structural VAR approach. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 95-104.
  • Benos, N. (2009). Fiscal Policy and Economic growth: Empirical Evidence from EU Countries. MPRA Paper 19174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Bernheim, B. D. (1989). A neoclassical perspective on budget deficits. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 55-72.
  • Berument, H. (2007). Measuring Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy: Turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(2), pp. 411-430.
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2013). Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. American Economic Review, 103(3), 117-20.
  • Broner, F. A., Lorenzoni, G. and Schmukler, S. L. (2013). Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term? Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(suppl_1), pp. 67-100.
  • Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). When is the government spending multiplier large? Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78-121.
  • Diamond, P. A. (1965) "National Debt and Neo-classical Economic Growth," American Economic Review, 55, 1125-1150.
  • Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 32 No. 3, pp. 417-58.
  • Eken, S., Helbling, T. and Mazarei, A. (1997). Fiscal Policy and Growth in The Middle East and North Africa Region. Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund. 97/101.
  • Engen, E. M. and Skinner, J. (1992). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth. National Bureau of Economic Research. No. w4223.
  • Fatima, G., Ahmed, M. and Rehman, W. (2012). Consequential Effects of Budget Deficit on Economic Growth of Pakistan. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(7).
  • Ibrahim, A. K. and Khan, S. M. (2019). Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Economics and Business, 33(1), pp. 50-68.
  • Khosravi, A. and Karimi, M. S. (2010). To Investigation the Relationship between Monetary, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Iran: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Cointegration. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 7(3), pp. 415-419.
  • Koray, F., McMillin, W. D., 1999. Monetary Shocks, the Exchange Rate, and the Trade Balance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 925–940.
  • Madni, G. R. and Chaudhary, M. A. (2017). Economic Growth in Context of Institutions and Fiscal Policy. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55(1), pp. 79-98.
  • Ocran, M. K. (2011). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in South Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(5), pp. 604-618.
  • Özer, M. and Karagöl, V. (2018). Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Growth in Turkey: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), pp. 391-409.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), pp. 289-326.
  • Premchand, A. (1984). Government Budgeting and Expenditure Controls: Theory and Practice. IMF, Washington, DC.
  • Şen, H., and Kaya, A. (2015). The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Growth: What Does Long-Run SVAR Model Tell Us? MPRA Paper, 65903.
  • Tanzi, V. and Zee, H. H. (1997). Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 44(2), pp. 179-209.
  • Yıldırım, M. O. and Yağcıbaşı, Ö. F. (2019). The Dynamics of House Prices and Fiscal Policy Shocks in Turkey. Economic Annals-XXI, 64(220), pp. 39-59.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Tüm Sayı
Yazarlar

Recep YORULMAZ
ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0001-9769-2100
Türkiye


Savaş KAPTAN (Sorumlu Yazar)
ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0003-1401-6620
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2021
Başvuru Tarihi 12 Ekim 2021
Kabul Tarihi 17 Aralık 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt 8, Sayı 17

Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { akademik-hassasiyetler1008868, journal = {Akademik Hassasiyetler}, issn = {2148-5933}, address = {}, publisher = {Hüzeyfe Süleyman ARSLAN}, year = {2021}, volume = {8}, number = {17}, pages = {51 - 70}, title = {THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY}, key = {cite}, author = {Yorulmaz, Recep and Kaptan, Savaş} }
APA Yorulmaz, R. & Kaptan, S. (2021). THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY . Akademik Hassasiyetler , 8 (17) , 51-70 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/akademik-hassasiyetler/issue/67434/1008868
MLA Yorulmaz, R. , Kaptan, S. "THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY" . Akademik Hassasiyetler 8 (2021 ): 51-70 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/akademik-hassasiyetler/issue/67434/1008868>
Chicago Yorulmaz, R. , Kaptan, S. "THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY". Akademik Hassasiyetler 8 (2021 ): 51-70
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY AU - Recep Yorulmaz , Savaş Kaptan Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - DO - T2 - Akademik Hassasiyetler JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 51 EP - 70 VL - 8 IS - 17 SN - 2148-5933- M3 - UR - Y2 - 2021 ER -
EndNote %0 Akademik Hassasiyetler THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY %A Recep Yorulmaz , Savaş Kaptan %T THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY %D 2021 %J Akademik Hassasiyetler %P 2148-5933- %V 8 %N 17 %R %U
ISNAD Yorulmaz, Recep , Kaptan, Savaş . "THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY". Akademik Hassasiyetler 8 / 17 (Aralık 2021): 51-70 .
AMA Yorulmaz R. , Kaptan S. THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2021; 8(17): 51-70.
Vancouver Yorulmaz R. , Kaptan S. THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2021; 8(17): 51-70.
IEEE R. Yorulmaz ve S. Kaptan , "THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY", Akademik Hassasiyetler, c. 8, sayı. 17, ss. 51-70, Ara. 2021