TÜRKİYE ÖZELİNDE EKOLOJİK AÇIK, EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE FİNANSAL GELİŞME İLİŞKİSİ: BAYER-HANCK BİRLEŞİK EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 26, 271 - 298, 30.12.2024

Onur Özdemir , Ceren Demir

https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1531399

Öz

Bu çalışma 1961-2021 arası dönem için Türkiye’de ekolojik açık, ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki üçlü ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Örneklem, 1961-1989 (iktisadi liberalizasyon öncesi), 1990-2021 (iktisadi liberalizasyon sonrası) ve 1961-2021 (tüm örneklem dönemi) olmak üzere Türkiye’deki sosyo-ekonomik yapısal dönüşümü kavramak adına üç ayrı döneme ayrılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, ampirik değerlendirmeler iki aşamalı test yöntemine dayandırılmıştır. İlk aşamada serilerin durağan olup olmadığını incelemek için içsel yapısal kırılmalı Zivot-Andrews birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Durağanlık sonuçları çerçevesinde, bir veya iki içsel yapısal kırılmanın uygulanması durumunda serilerin durağan olmama özelliğinde bir değişiklik olmadığı ve çoğunlukla birinci mertebeden entegre oldukları görülmüştür. Ayrıca Clemente-Montañés-Reyes birim kök testi yaklaşımı serilerin AO ve IO modelleri bağlamında sırasıyla çift ortalama kayması veya kademeli değişim ile karşılaştığını araştırmak için kullanılmıştır. Clemente-Montañés-Reyes birim kök testi yaklaşımının sonuçları serilerin I(1)’de fark-durağan olduğu Zivot-Andrews birim kök yöntemiyle de aynı bulunmuştur. Serilerin eşbütünleşik olup olmadığını test etmek için ise Bayer ve Hanck (2013) tarafından geliştirilen birleşik eşbütünleşme yöntemine başvurulmaktadır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular serilerin farklı tahmin modelleri ve seçilen her dönem açısından yüksek anlamlılık düzeyinde eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca tahmin sonuçları seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekolojik Açık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme, Yapısal Kırılma, Bayer-Hanck Eşbütünleşme Testi

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECOLOGICAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TÜRKİYE: BAYER-HANCK COMBINED COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Öz

This study investigates the triple relationship between ecological deficit, economic growth, and financial development in Türkiye for the period 1961-2021. The sample is divided into three different periods to grasp the socio-economic structural transformation in Türkiye, namely 1961-1989 (pre-economic liberalization period), 1990-2021 (post-economic liberalization period) and 1961-2021 (whole sample period). In this context, empirical assessments were based on the two-stage test method. In the first stage, Zivot-Andrews unit root tests with internal structural breaks were applied to examine whether the series were stationary. Within the framework of the stationarity results, it has been observed that if one or two internal structural breaks are applied, there is no change in the non-stationarity feature of the series and they are mostly integrated at the first order. Additionally, the Clemente-Montañés-Reyes unit root test approach was used to investigate whether the series encountered double mean shift or gradual change in the context of AO and IO models, respectively. The results of the Clemente-Montañés-Reyes unit root test approach were found to be the same as the Zivot-Andrews unit root method, where the series are stationary at their first difference I(1). Econometric analysis is also based on the combined cointegration method developed by Bayer and Hanck to test whether the series are cointegrated. The empirical findings show that the series are cointegrated at high significance level in terms of different estimation models and each selected period. Furthermore, the estimation results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between the series.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ecological Deficit, Economic Growth, Financial Development, Structural Break, Bayer-Hanck Combined Cointegration Test

Kaynakça

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