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2015 TÜRKİYE PARLAMENTO SEÇİMLERİ IŞIĞINDA CHP'NİN OYLARINI ARTIRAMAMASININ NEDENLERİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 415 - 438, 01.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.306918

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı 2015 Türkiye Parlamento Seçimleri ışığında Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi’nin (CHP) oylarında durgunluğun nedenlerini açıklamaktır. Oy verme davranışı teorilerinden yararlanarak makale, parti içindeki örgütsel zaafiyeletlerin ve inandırıcılık sorununun partinin uzun dönemli tarihsel-yapısal sorunların üstesinden gelmede – temel olarak Türkiye’de toplumun muhafazakar çevre ve laik merkez arasında bölünmesi - önemli engel olarak ortaya çıktığını ileri sürmektedir. Bunun yanında Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) ve taraftarları arasındaki güçlü özdeşleşme parti değiştirmeyi güçleştirmektedir. Özdeşleşme herşeyden once ekonomik fayda ve kamu hizmetlerinin sağlanmasıyla ve Türk siyasetindeki artan kutuplaşma ve bölünmeyle gerçekleşmektedir. Son olarak 7 Haziran ve 1 Kasım 2015 tarihleri arasında politik ortamdaki değişiklikler güvenlik ve istikrar meselelerini gündemin tepesine çıkarmış ve AKP’nin 1 Kasım seçimleri öncesinde yaptığı değişiklikler CHP’ye muhtemel oy akışının önüne geçmiştir. 

Kaynakça

  • Akarca, A. and Tansel, A. (2006). Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results between 1950 and 2004. Public Choice, 129 (1/2), 77-105. Akyürek, S. and Koydemir, S. F. (2014). Türkiye’de Etnik, Dini ve Siyasi Kutuplaşma. http://www.bilgesam.org/Images/Dokumanlar/0-262-2014070713kutup.pdf Date of access: 4.12.2015. Başlevent, C. and Kirmanoğlu, H. (2016). Economic Voting in Turkey: Perceptions, Expectations and the Party Choice. Research and Policy on Turkey, 1 (1), 88-101 Berelson, B. R. et al. (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in A Presidential Campaign. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Campbell, A. et al. (1960). The American Voter. New York: Willey. Ciddi, S. and Esen, B. (2014). Turkey’s Republican People’s Party: Politics of Opposition under a Dominant Party System. Turkish Studies, 15 (3), 419-441. Çarkoğlu, A. (2005). Political Preferences of the Turkish Electorate: Reflections of an Alevi-Sunni Cleavage. Turkish Studies, 6 (2), 273-292. Çarkoğlu, A. (2007). The Nature of the Left-Right Ideological Self-placement in the Turkish Context. Turkish Studies, 8 (2), 253-271. Çarkoğlu, A. (2008). Ideology or Economic Pragmatism? Profiling Turkish Voters in 2007. Turkish Studies, 9 (2), 317-344 Çarkoğlu, A. and Hinich, M. (2006). A Spatial Analysis of Turkish Party Preferences. Electoral Studies, 25 (2), 369-392. Çevikcan, S. (2015). Ağız dalaşı istemiyoruz. http://m.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/serpil-cevikcan/-agiz-dalasi--istemiyoruz--2109823/ Date of access: 7.01.2016. Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper Collins Publishers. ¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬Emre, Y. (2015a). CHP’nin Örgütsel Sorunu. http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/koseyazisi/423919/CHP_nin_orgutsel_sorunu.html Date of access: 2.2.2016. Emre, Y. (2015b). Why has Social Democracy not developed in Turkey? Analysis of an Atypical Case. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 17 (4), 392-407. Esmer, Y., At the Ballot Box: Determinants of Voting Behavior in Turkey. Esmer, Y. and Sayarı, S. (Ed.) Politics, Parties and Elections in Turkey. Boulder, CO: Lynn Rienner, pp. 91-114. Lazarsfeld, P. F. et al. (1944). The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University Press. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (1994). Elections and Party Preferences in Turkey: Changes and Continuities in the 1990s. Comparative Political Studies, 27 (3), 402-424. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (1999). The Shaping of Party Preferences in Turkey: Coping with the Post-Cold War Era. New Perspectives on Turkey, 20, 1999, 47-76. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2008). Attitudinal Orientation to Party Organisations in Turkey in the 2000s. Turkish Studies, 9 (2), 297-316. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2010). Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or the Restitution of the Right-of-Center Predominant Party. Turkish Studies, 11 (1), 29-44. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2012). Kulturkampf in Turkey: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010. South European Society and Politics, 17 (1), 1-22. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2013). Turkish Party System: Leaders, Vote and Institutionalization. South European Society and Politics, 13 (4), 483-502. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2014). Local Elections and the Turkish Voter: Looking for the Determinants of Party Choice. South European Society and Politics, 19 (4), 583-600. Katz, E., and Lazarsfeld, P. F. (1955). Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communications. Glencoe, IL: Free Press. Lance, W. B., and Salisbury, B. R. (1987). Rational Choice: The Emerging Paradigm in Election Studies. Long, S. (Ed.) Research in Micropolitics. v. 2, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 1-30. Mardin, Ş. (1973). Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics? Daedalus, 102 (1), 169-190. Milliyet (2015a). AKP’nin bildirgesi bizimkinden alıntı. http://www.milliyet.com.tr/-akp-nin-bildirgesi-bizimkinden/siyaset/detay/2127556/default.htm Date of access: 7.01.2016. Milliyet (2015b). Gelen 4 milyon 600 bin oyun dökümü. http://www.milliyet.com.tr/gelen-4-milyon-600-bin-oyun-dokumu-gundem-2141965/ Date of access: 7.01.2016. Norris, P. (1998). Elections and Voting Behavior: New Challenges, New Perspectives. Dartmouth: Ashgate, XV. Taşkın, Y. (2015). CHP: Seçmenlerini Örgütleyemeyen Parti. http://yeniarayis.com/siyaset-ve-hukuk/2015/08/chp-secmenlerini-orgutleyemeyen-parti/ Date of access: 30.11.2015 Tosun, T. (2015). CHP’nin Türkiyelileşememe Sorunu. http://yeniarayis.com/siyaset-ve-hukuk/2015/11/chpnin-turkiyelilesememe-sorunu/ Date of access: 12.11.2015. Turan, İ. (2006). Old Soldiers Never Die: The Republican People’s Party of Turkey. South European Society and Politics, 11 (3-4), 559-578. Yeni Şafak (2015a). 2015 Seçim Sonuçları. http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2015-kasim/secim-sonuclari Date of access: 17.12.2015. Yeni Şafak (2015b). İstanbul Kasım 2015 Genel Seçim Sonuçları. http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2015-kasim/istanbul-secim-sonuclari-1-kasim-2015 Date of access: 3.12.2015.

The Reasons of Electoral Stagnation of the CHP in the Light of the 2015 Turkish Parliamentary Elections

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 415 - 438, 01.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.306918

Öz

It is the intention in this article to explain the electoral stagnation of the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP) in the light of the 2015 parliamentary elections in Turkey. Drawing on theories of voting behavior, the article uncovers the organizational shortcomings within the party and the problem of credibility that have emerged as significant impediments to the party in addressing long-term historical-structural issues, mainly the division of Turkish society between the religious periphery and the secular center. Furthermore, the strong identification between the ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) and its partisans have made party-switching difficult, having been achieved, above all, through the provision of economic benefits and public services and the consolidation of party identification through growing polarization and division in Turkish politics. Last but not least, the changes to the political environment between the June 7 and November 1, 2015 elections, pushed stability and security to the top of the agenda, as well as AKP’s electoral adjustments in the run-up to the November 1 elections inhibited any possible flow of votes to the CHP. 

Kaynakça

  • Akarca, A. and Tansel, A. (2006). Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results between 1950 and 2004. Public Choice, 129 (1/2), 77-105. Akyürek, S. and Koydemir, S. F. (2014). Türkiye’de Etnik, Dini ve Siyasi Kutuplaşma. http://www.bilgesam.org/Images/Dokumanlar/0-262-2014070713kutup.pdf Date of access: 4.12.2015. Başlevent, C. and Kirmanoğlu, H. (2016). Economic Voting in Turkey: Perceptions, Expectations and the Party Choice. Research and Policy on Turkey, 1 (1), 88-101 Berelson, B. R. et al. (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in A Presidential Campaign. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Campbell, A. et al. (1960). The American Voter. New York: Willey. Ciddi, S. and Esen, B. (2014). Turkey’s Republican People’s Party: Politics of Opposition under a Dominant Party System. Turkish Studies, 15 (3), 419-441. Çarkoğlu, A. (2005). Political Preferences of the Turkish Electorate: Reflections of an Alevi-Sunni Cleavage. Turkish Studies, 6 (2), 273-292. Çarkoğlu, A. (2007). The Nature of the Left-Right Ideological Self-placement in the Turkish Context. Turkish Studies, 8 (2), 253-271. Çarkoğlu, A. (2008). Ideology or Economic Pragmatism? Profiling Turkish Voters in 2007. Turkish Studies, 9 (2), 317-344 Çarkoğlu, A. and Hinich, M. (2006). A Spatial Analysis of Turkish Party Preferences. Electoral Studies, 25 (2), 369-392. Çevikcan, S. (2015). Ağız dalaşı istemiyoruz. http://m.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/serpil-cevikcan/-agiz-dalasi--istemiyoruz--2109823/ Date of access: 7.01.2016. Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper Collins Publishers. ¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬Emre, Y. (2015a). CHP’nin Örgütsel Sorunu. http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/koseyazisi/423919/CHP_nin_orgutsel_sorunu.html Date of access: 2.2.2016. Emre, Y. (2015b). Why has Social Democracy not developed in Turkey? Analysis of an Atypical Case. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 17 (4), 392-407. Esmer, Y., At the Ballot Box: Determinants of Voting Behavior in Turkey. Esmer, Y. and Sayarı, S. (Ed.) Politics, Parties and Elections in Turkey. Boulder, CO: Lynn Rienner, pp. 91-114. Lazarsfeld, P. F. et al. (1944). The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University Press. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (1994). Elections and Party Preferences in Turkey: Changes and Continuities in the 1990s. Comparative Political Studies, 27 (3), 402-424. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (1999). The Shaping of Party Preferences in Turkey: Coping with the Post-Cold War Era. New Perspectives on Turkey, 20, 1999, 47-76. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2008). Attitudinal Orientation to Party Organisations in Turkey in the 2000s. Turkish Studies, 9 (2), 297-316. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2010). Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or the Restitution of the Right-of-Center Predominant Party. Turkish Studies, 11 (1), 29-44. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2012). Kulturkampf in Turkey: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010. South European Society and Politics, 17 (1), 1-22. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2013). Turkish Party System: Leaders, Vote and Institutionalization. South European Society and Politics, 13 (4), 483-502. Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2014). Local Elections and the Turkish Voter: Looking for the Determinants of Party Choice. South European Society and Politics, 19 (4), 583-600. Katz, E., and Lazarsfeld, P. F. (1955). Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communications. Glencoe, IL: Free Press. Lance, W. B., and Salisbury, B. R. (1987). Rational Choice: The Emerging Paradigm in Election Studies. Long, S. (Ed.) Research in Micropolitics. v. 2, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 1-30. Mardin, Ş. (1973). Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics? Daedalus, 102 (1), 169-190. Milliyet (2015a). AKP’nin bildirgesi bizimkinden alıntı. http://www.milliyet.com.tr/-akp-nin-bildirgesi-bizimkinden/siyaset/detay/2127556/default.htm Date of access: 7.01.2016. Milliyet (2015b). Gelen 4 milyon 600 bin oyun dökümü. http://www.milliyet.com.tr/gelen-4-milyon-600-bin-oyun-dokumu-gundem-2141965/ Date of access: 7.01.2016. Norris, P. (1998). Elections and Voting Behavior: New Challenges, New Perspectives. Dartmouth: Ashgate, XV. Taşkın, Y. (2015). CHP: Seçmenlerini Örgütleyemeyen Parti. http://yeniarayis.com/siyaset-ve-hukuk/2015/08/chp-secmenlerini-orgutleyemeyen-parti/ Date of access: 30.11.2015 Tosun, T. (2015). CHP’nin Türkiyelileşememe Sorunu. http://yeniarayis.com/siyaset-ve-hukuk/2015/11/chpnin-turkiyelilesememe-sorunu/ Date of access: 12.11.2015. Turan, İ. (2006). Old Soldiers Never Die: The Republican People’s Party of Turkey. South European Society and Politics, 11 (3-4), 559-578. Yeni Şafak (2015a). 2015 Seçim Sonuçları. http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2015-kasim/secim-sonuclari Date of access: 17.12.2015. Yeni Şafak (2015b). İstanbul Kasım 2015 Genel Seçim Sonuçları. http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2015-kasim/istanbul-secim-sonuclari-1-kasim-2015 Date of access: 3.12.2015.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Mehmet Bardakçı

Tülay Yıldırım Mat

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ekim 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Nisan 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Bardakçı, M., & Yıldırım Mat, T. (2018). The Reasons of Electoral Stagnation of the CHP in the Light of the 2015 Turkish Parliamentary Elections. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 13(2), 415-438. https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.306918

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