Fay Parametreleri ve Deprem Büyüklüğü Arasındaki İlişkiler İçin Yeni Bir Program: FaultStat

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 3, 1089 - 1101, 30.12.2018

Ökmen Sümer , Oğuzcan Karagöz Akın Alak

Öz

Günümüzde bir bölgenin sismik risk analizlerinin sağlıklı bir şekilde yapılabilmesi için, öncelikle o bölgenin sismik deformasyon deseninin hangi yapısal elemanlar tarafından kontrol edildiğinin iyi bilinmesi gerekmektedir. Belirlenen yapısal elemanların, kinematik anlamda türleri, geometrileri ve segment yapılarının ortaya çıkartılması ise sismik risk analizlerinin temelini oluşturur. Bu bağlamda, belirlenmiş yapısal elemanların üretebilecekleri maksimum deprem potansiyelleri ile yaratabilecekleri yüzey kırığı uzunluğu ve maksimum yer değiştirme miktarlarının hesaplanabilmesi için, gerek deterministik gerekse olasılıklar üzerinden belirli yaklaşımlarla bir değerlendirme yapılmaktadır. Bu yaklaşımlar ana hatlarıyla (1) jeofiziksel olarak sismik veriler yardımıyla ve/veya jeodezik veriler ışığında (2) tarihsel ve/veya aletsel dönemde meydana gelmiş depremlerin yarattığı yüzey deformasyonlarının jeolojik gözlemlerine dayanır.Bu çalışma kapsamında, Dünyada meydana gelmiş tarihsel ve aletsel döneme ait depremlerin jeolojik gözlemlerinin sunulduğu 500’ün üzerinde çalışma derlenerek toplamda 224 adet depreme ait bir veri seti oluşturulmuş ve değerlendirilmiştir. Bu veriler üzerinde, jeolojik gözlemlerin yapıldığı zaman, ölçüm tekniği ve verinin kendi içinde farklı çalışmalardaki uyumluluğu dikkate alınarak belirli bir kalite sınıflaması yapılmıştır. Depremleri üreten faylar kinematik özelliklerine göre gruplandırılmış ve daha sonra büyüklük (Mw)-yüzey kırığı uzunluğu, büyüklük (Mw) -maksimum atım miktarı gibi parametreler hesaba katılarak lineer ya da logaritmik modelleri oluşturularak FaultStat isimli yeni bir bilgisayar programı üretilmiştir. Program hafızasındaki veri setinden hesaplama yapmasının yanında, girilen yeni deprem verilerinden yola çıkarak formüller için yeni katsayılar da hesaplayabilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sismik risk analizi, Fay türü, Yüzey kırığı uzunluğu, Maksimum atım miktarı, Yazılım, FaultStat.

Kaynakça

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