Devlet kapasitesi ve sahra altı Afrika'da Birleşmiş Milletler barışı koruma operasyonları: Ampirik görüşler

Öz

Devlet kapasitesi, güvenlik ve kalkınma ilişkisi bağlamında temel bir kavram olarak, son yıllarda siyaset biliminde giderek artan bir şekilde ilgi görmektedir. Bu çalışma, 2000-2015 yılları arasında belirli değişkenlerin Sahraaltı Afrika'da devlet kapasitesi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Küresel ölçekte zayıf devlet kapasitesi ve yüksek çatışma oranlarıyla öne çıkan bu bölge, aynı zamanda dünya genelinde en fazla barışı koruma operasyonuna ev sahipliği yapmaktadır. Zaman içinde Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) barışı koruma operasyonları, ateşkesin korunmasına odaklanan geleneksel yetki alanlarından çıkarak, özellikle bu bölgede, barış inşasını ve devlet kapasitesine desteği içeren daha geniş ve çok boyutlu görevlere evrilmiştir. Bu çalışma, panel veri analizi kullanarak ve dokuz ülkeyi kapsayan bir örneklem çerçevesinde, devlet kapasitesini kişi başına düşen GSYİH, doğal kaynak rantları, düzenleyici kalite, silahlı kuvvetler personeli ve BM barışı koruma operasyonları gibi değişkenler aracılığıyla değerlendirmektedir. Sahra Altı Afrika’daki dokuz ülke üzerinde gerçekleştirilen panel veri regresyon analizi, değişkenlerin devlet kapasitesi üzerindeki çeşitli etkilerini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, barışı koruma operasyonlarının, doğal kaynak rantlarının ve silahlı kuvvetler personelinin devlet kapasitesi üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi olduğunu, buna karşın GSYİH ve düzenleyici kalitenin olumlu katkılar sunduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, gerçekçi yetki alanları ve yerel sahiplenme olmaksızın barışı koruma operasyonlarının devlet kapasitesini etkili bir şekilde güçlendiremeyeceğini öne sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• BM Barışı Koruma
• Devlet Kapasitesi
• Sahraaltı Afrika
• Panel Veri Analizi

State capacity and United Nations peacekeeping in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical insights

Öz

State capacity, as a key concept in the security and development nexus, has garnered increasing attention in political science over the past decades. This study examines the impact of specific variables on state capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2015, a region characterized by weak state capacity and high conflict rates globally, and which hosts the largest number of peacekeeping operations worldwide. Over time, United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations have evolved from traditional mandates focused on ceasefire maintenance to broader, multidimensional tasks that encompass peacebuilding and support for state capacity, particularly within the region. This study utilizes panel data analysis and a sample of nine countries to assess state capacity through variables such as GDP per capita, natural resource rents, regulatory quality, armed forces personnel, and UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs). Panel data regression analysis across nine Sub-Saharan African countries reveals different influences of the variables on state capacity. The results of the study reveal a negative impact of PKOs, natural resource rents, and armed forces personnel on state capacity, while GDP and regulatory quality demonstrate positive contributions. The results suggest that PKOs cannot effectively enhance state capacity without the presence of realistic mandates and local ownership.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• UN Peacekeeping
• State Capacity
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

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