Türkiye’nin net hata ve noksanının sürdürülebilirliği: Yeni bir değerlendirme

Öz

Net Hata ve Noksan (NHN), ödemeler dengesi kayıtlarında yer alan tüm işlemlerin tam ve doğru şekilde kaydedilememesinden kaynaklanan farkı gösteren, istatistiksel ve teknik nedenlerle oluşan dengeleyici kalemdir. Literatürde ödemeler dengesi net hata ve noksan kaleminin (NHN) sürdürülebilirliği birim kök testleri çerçevesinde incelenmekte ve durağan serilerin sürdürülebilir olduğu ve sürdürülebilir bir NHN’nin ise kaliteli ve sağlıklı bir ödemeler dengesi istatistiğine işaret ettiği belirtilmektedir. Çalışmada literatürdeki sürdürülebilirlik tanımının genişletilmesi gereği ortaya konularak, durağanlığın yanı sıra NHN’nin ortalamasını ve dalgalanmasını dikkate alan yeni bir sürdürülebilirlik tanımı yapılmakta ve Türkiye’nin NHN’sinin sürdürülebilirliği önerilen bu yeni tanım çerçevesinde değerlendirilmektedir. Buna göre inceleme dönemi olan 2013-2023 yıllarında Türkiye NHN serisinin durağan ve ortalaması sıfır olmakla birlikte dalgalanmasının yüksek bir boyutta olduğu ortaya konulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ödemeler Dengesi
• Net Hata ve Noksan
• Sürdürülebilirlik

The sustainability of Türkiye's net error and omission: A new assessment

Öz

Net Errors and Omissions (NEO) is a balancing item in the balance of payments that reflects discrepancies arising from the incomplete or inaccurate recording of international transactions, typically due to statistical or technical reasons. In the literature, the sustainability of the net errors and omissions (NEO) item in the balance of payments is examined within the framework of unit root tests. It is stated that stationary series are sustainable, and that a sustainable NEO indicates a high-quality and healthy balance of payments statistics. This study demonstrates the need to expand the definition of sustainability in the literature. A new definition is proposed that considers the mean and volatility of the NEO, in addition to stationarity. The sustainability of Türkiye's NEO is evaluated within the framework of this enlarged definition. Accordingly, it is revealed that Türkiye's NEO series is stationary and has a zero mean, but its volatility is high during the 2013-2023 period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Balance of Payments
• Net Errors and Omissions
• Sustainability

Kaynakça

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