YATIRIMLAR, BELİRSİZLİK VE PİYASA YAPISI: KAVRAMSAL BİR İNCELEME

Öz

Karar birimlerinin bugün tüketmek yerine, belirsiz bir gelecek kazancı için üretken kaynaklara yaptıkları harcamalar olarak tanımlanan yatırımlar, bir yandan ekonominin uzun dönem üretken kapasitesinin belirlenmesinde kritik rol oynarken, diğer taraftan büyüme ve istihdam yaratılması sürecine de katkı yaparlar. Belirsizlik olgusuna yaklaşımları göz önünde bulundurularak, yatırım teorilerini geleneksel ve modern yatırım teorileri olmak üzere iki grupta toplamak mümkündür. Geleneksel yatırım teorilerinin çoğunun gerisinde net bugünkü değer kriteri yer almaktadır ve bu teorilerde çoğunlukla belirsizlik olgusu göz önünde bulundurulmamıştır. Modern yatırım teorilerindeise uzunca bir zaman gözden kaçan bu belirsizlik olgusu yatırım teorisine dahiledilmiştir. İlerleyen dönemlerde ise piyasa yapısının belirsizlik-yatırım ilişkisindeki rolü ön plana çıkmış, ürün piyasalarındaki eksik rekabetin belirsizliğin yatırımlar üzerindeki dışlayıcı etkisini kuvvetlendirdiği tezi tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı söz konusu yatırım teorilerinin geçirdiği evreleri incelemek, piyasa yapısının belirsizlik-yatırım ilişkisindeki önemini vurgulamaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Investment Theories, Uncertainty, Market Structure

Kaynakça

1. ABEL, Andrew B. (1983) “Optimal Investment Under Uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 73, p.228–233.
2. ABEL, Andrew B., EBERLY, Janice C. (1994) “A Unifed Model of Investment Under Uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 84, pp.1369-1384.
3. ABEL, Andrew B., EBERLY, Janice C. (1999), “The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, pp.339–377.
4. ALADA, Dinç (2000) İktisat Felsefesi ve Belirsizlik. İstanbul: Bağlam Yayıncılık.
5. BERNANKE, Ben S. (1983) “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98, pp.85–106.
6. BERTOLA, Giuseppe. (1988) “Irreversible Investment”, Research in Economics, 52, pp. 3–37.
7. BERTOLA, Guiseppe ve CABALLERO, Ricardo J. (1994) “Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment”, Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, 61(2), pp. 223-246
8. BO, Hong ve ZHANG, Zhiahi (2000) “The Impact of Uncertainty on Firm Investment: Evidence From Machinery Industry in Liaoning Province of China”, Economic Systems, 26, pp. 335–352.

9. BÖHM, Hjalmar, FUNKE, Michael ve SIEGFRIED, Nikoluos (2000) “Discovering The Link Between Uncertainty and Investment-Microeconometric Evidence From Germany”, Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Paper Series, No: 5/99, Hamburg University.
10. BULAN, Laarni. T. (2005) “Real Options, Irreversible Investment and Firm Uncertainty: New Evidence From US Firms”, Review of Financial Economics, 14, pp.255-279.
11. CABALLERO, Ricardo J. (1991) “On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship”, American Economic Review, 81, pp.279–288.
12. CARRUTH, Alan, DICKERSON, Andy ve HENLEY, Andrew, (2000) “What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 14, pp.119-153.
13. CRAINE, Roger (1989) “Risky Business. The Allocation of Capital”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, pp.201–218.
14. DIXIT, Avinash K. ve PINDYCK, Robert S. (1994) Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
15. DRIVER, Ciaran, YIP, Paul ve DAKHIL, Nazera (1996) “Large Company Capital Formation and Effects of Market Share Turbulence: Micro-Data Evidence From The PIMS Database”, Applied Economics, 28, pp.641- 651.
16. EISNER, Robert ve STROTZ, Robert H. (1963) Determinants of Business Investment. in Commission on Money and Credit, Impacts of Monetary Policy. Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, N.J
17. FISHER, Irving (1930) The Theory of Interest: As Determined by Impatience to Spend Income and Opportunity to Invest It. 1954 Reprint, New York: Kelley And Millman.
18. FROYEN, Richard T. (2005) Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies, 8th Ed., New Jersey: Pearson-Prentice Hall.
19. GHOSAL, Vivek (1996) “Does Uncertainty Influence The Number of Firms in an Industry?”, Economics Letters, 50(2), pp.229-236.
20. GRENADIER, Steven (2002) “Option Exercise Games: an Application to The Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firm”, Review Of Financial Studies, 15(3), pp.691-721.
21. GUISO, Luigi ve PARIGI, Giuseppe (1999) “Investment and Demand Uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, pp. 185-227.
22. HALL, Robert E. ve JORGENSON, Dale W. (1967) “Tax Policy and Investment Behavior”, American Economic Review, 57(3), pp. 391-414.
23. HARTMAN, Richard (1972) “The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment”, Journal of Economic Theory, 5, pp. 258-266.
24. HENLEY, Andrew, CARRUTT, Alan ve DICKERSON, Andy (2003) “Industry- Wide Versus Firm-Specific Uncertainty and Investment: British Company Panel Data Evidence”, Economics Letters, 78, pp.87-92.
25. JOAQUIN, Domingo ve KHANNA, Naveen (2001) “Investment Timing Decision under Threat of Potential Competition”, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 41, pp.1-18.
26. JORGENSON, Dale W. (1963) “Capital Theory and Investment Behavior”, American Economic Review, 53(2), pp. 247-259.
27. KENÇ, Turalay (2003) “Reel Opsiyonlar Yöntemi ile Yatırım Projelerinin Değerlemesi”, Active Bankacılık ve Finans Dergisi, Mayıs-Haziran.
28. KOYCK, Leendert M. (1954) Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis, North- Holland, Amsterdam.
29. LAMBRECHT, Bart ve PERRAUDIN, William (2003) “Real Options and Preemption under Incomplete Information”, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 27, pp.619-643.
30. LUCAS, Robert E. (1967) “Optimal Investment Policy and The Flexible Accelerator”, International Economic Review, 8(1), pp.78-85.
31. MAIOLI, Sara (2005) “The Impact of Market Structure and Irreversibility on Investment under Uncertainty: an Empirical Analysis”, Research Paper 2005/45, University of Nottingham.
32. MCDONALD, Robert ve SIEGEL Daniel (1986) “The Value of Waiting to Invest”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101, pp.707–727.
33. MYERS, Stewart (1977) “Determinants of Corporate Borrowing”, Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp.147-175.
34. NICKELL, Stephen J. (1978) The Investment Decision of Firms, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
35. NINH, Le Khuong, HERMES Niels and LANJOUW Ger (2004) “Investment, Uncertainty and Irreversibility”, Economics of Transition, 12(2 ), pp. 307- 332
36. PINDYCK, Robert S. (1988)“Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice and The Value of The Şrm”, American Economic Review, 78(5), pp. 969–985.
37. PINDYCK, Robert S. (1991) “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment”, Journal of Economic Literature, 29, pp. 1110–1148.
38. PINDYCK, Robert S. (1993) “A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 83(1), pp. 273–277.
39. USLU, Zeki M. ve ÖNAL, Yıldırım B. (2007) Yatırım Projeleri, Adana: Karahan Kitabevi.
40. ZEIRA, Joseph (1989) “Cost Uncertainty and The Rate of Investment”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 14, pp.53-63.