The Relationship Between Public Expenditures and Openness in the MIST Countries

Yıl 2024, , 1789 - 1800, 17.12.2024

Şaduman Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.1255755

Öz

After the Second World War, increases were observed in both public expenditures and openness, and researchers started to investigate the relationship between these two variables. As a result of the investigations, three hypotheses revealing the relationship between public expenditures and openness were developed. These hypotheses are the compensation hypothesis, the efficiency hypothesis, and the deindustrialization hypothesis. According to the compensation hypothesis, there is a positive relationship between openness and public expenditures, and openness increases public expenditures. On the other hand, according to the efficiency hypothesis, there is a negative relationship between public expenditures and openness, and openness reduces public expenditures. Finally, according to the deindustrialization hypothesis, there is no relationship between public expenditures and openness.
In the present study, the effect of openness on public expenditures in the MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) countries was tested via panel data analysis using annual data for the 1960-2021 period. In this respect, as a result of the LM cointegration test, it was concluded that there was a cointegration relationship between the variables of public expenditures and openness. Afterward, a coefficient estimate was made for the variables with the CUP-FM and BA-OLS tests, and a positive relationship was revealed between the variables of public expenditures and openness. Finally, the result of the Fisher causality test supported the result of the LM cointegration test. Thus, it was concluded that the compensation hypothesis was valid in the MIST countries for the 1960-2021 period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, Public Expenditures, Openness, Compensation Hypothesis, Efficiency Hypothesis, Panel Data Analysis.

MIST Ülkelerinde Kamu Harcamaları ve Dışa Açıklık Arasındaki İlişki

Öz

İkinci Dünya Savaşı’ndan sonra hem kamu harcamalarında hem de dış açıkta artışlar olduğu görülmüş ve araştırmacılar tarafından bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişki araştırılmaya başlanmıştır. Yapılan araştırmalar sonucunda kamu harcamaları ile dış açıklık arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyan üç hipotez geliştirilmiştir. Söz konusu hipotezler telafi hipotezi, etkinlik hipotezi ve sanayisizleşme (deindustrialization) hipotezidir. Telafi hipotezine göre dış açıklık ile kamu harcamaları arasında pozitif yönlü ilişki söz konusu olup dış açıklık kamu harcamalarını artırmaktadır. Diğer yandan etkinlik hipotezine göre kamu harcamaları ile dış açıklık arasında negatif yönlü ilişki söz konusu olup dış açıklık kamu harcamalarını azaltmaktadır. Son olarak sanayisizleşme hipotezine göre ise kamu harcamaları ile dış açıklık arasında ilişki söz konusu değildir.
Bu çalışmada MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) ülkelerinde dışa açıklığın kamu harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi 1960-2021 dönemi için yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel veri analizi ile test edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda yapılan LM eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda kamu harcamaları ve dışa açıklık değişkenleri arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Daha sonra CUP-FM ve BA-OLS testleri ile değişkenler için katsayı tahmini yapılmış ve kamu harcamaları ile dışa açıklık değişkenleri arasında pozitif yönlü ilişki olduğu ortaya koyulmuştur. Son olarak yapılan Fisher nedensellik testi sonucu da LM eşbütünleşme testi sonucunu destekler nitelikte olup MIST ülkelerinde 1960-2021 dönem aralığında telafi hipotezinin geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Kamu Harcamaları, Dışa Açıklık, Telafi Hipotezi, Etkinlik Hipotezi, Panel Veri Analizi.

Kaynakça

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