ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular

Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar; Efe Çağlar Çağlı

doi:10.32709/akusosbil.838812

TR EN

Transportation Services, Financial Market, and Industrial Production in the US: Evidence from the Recursive Evolving Causality Test

Öz

This paper examines the relationship between Transportation Services Index (TSI), Dow Jones Transportation Average Index (DJT), and Industrial Production Index (IND) for the United States of America by using monthly data in the period from January 2000 to March 2019. The long-run nexus is demonstrated through the cointegration test and dynamic cointegrating regression (Dynamic OLS), both with structural breaks. The results show that the long-run relations proved by both tests from IND to TSI, IND to DJT, and two-sided between DJT and TSI. More importantly, the Granger-causality relationship is revealed with the forward, rolling, and recursive evolving window algorithms. This is the first study in the literature investigating the causality ties in transportation measures using the novel econometric methodology, following the algorithms. The rolling and recursive causality results detect bi-directional causality between IND and TSI, IND and DJT, and TSI and DJT. Then we come up with some suggestions that the transportation institutions should modulate the transportation sector's financial structure and intensify to adjust industry structures within transportation mobility before, during, and after recessionary periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Transportation services index, Dow Jones transportation index, industrial production index, recursive evolving causality

ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular

Öz

Bu makale, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri için Ulaşım Hizmetleri Endeksi (TSI), Dow Jones Ulaşım Ortalama Endeksi (DJT) ve Endüstriyel Üretim Endeksi (IND) arasındaki ilişkiyi Ocak 2000'den Mart 2019'a kadar olan dönemdeki aylık verileri kullanarak incelemektedir. Uzun dönemli bağ, her ikisi de yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik eşbütünleşme regresyonu (Dinamik OLS) ile gösterilmektedir. Sonuçlar, uzun dönemli ilişkilerin IND'den TSI'ye, IND'den DJT'ye ve DJT ile TSI arasında iki yönlü testlerle kanıtlandığını göstermektedir. Daha da önemlisi, Granger-nedensellik ilişkisi ileri, yuvarlanan ve özyinelemeli pencere algoritmalarıyla ortaya çıkar. Bu, algoritmaları takip ederek yeni ekonometrik metodolojiyi kullanarak ulaşım ölçülerindeki nedensellik bağlarını araştıran literatürdeki ilk çalışmadır. Yuvarlanan ve özyinelemeli nedensellik sonuçları, IND ile TSI, IND ve DJT ve TSI ve DJT arasındaki iki yönlü nedenselliği tespit eder. Ardından ulaşım kuruluşlarının, ulaşım sektörünün finansal yapısını modifiye etmesi ve durgunluk dönemlerinden önce, sırasında ve sonrasında ulaşım hareketliliği içinde endüstri yapılarını yeniden düzenlemeye yoğunlaşması gerektiği yönünde bazı öneriler getirmekteyiz.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ulaşım hizmetleri endeksi, Dow Jones ulaşım endeksi, endüstriyel üretim endeksi, özyinelemeli nedensellik

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

-

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar ^*
0000-0002-8434-8447
Türkiye

Efe Çağlar Çağlı
0000-0002-8250-141X
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

27 Mart 2022

Gönderilme Tarihi

10 Aralık 2020

Kabul Tarihi

5 Ocak 2022

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2022 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.838812

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA75ZJ63NY

APA

Beyzatlar, M. A., & Çağlı, E. Ç. (2022). ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(1), 183-200. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.838812

AMA

1.Beyzatlar MA, Çağlı EÇ. ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular. AKÜSBD. 2022;24(1):183-200. doi:10.32709/akusosbil.838812

Chicago

Beyzatlar, Mehmet Aldonat, ve Efe Çağlar Çağlı. 2022. “ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 24 (1): 183-200. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.838812.

EndNote

Beyzatlar MA, Çağlı EÇ (01 Mart 2022) ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 24 1 183–200.

IEEE

[1]M. A. Beyzatlar ve E. Ç. Çağlı, “ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular”, AKÜSBD, c. 24, sy 1, ss. 183–200, Mar. 2022, doi: 10.32709/akusosbil.838812.

ISNAD

Beyzatlar, Mehmet Aldonat - Çağlı, Efe Çağlar. “ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 24/1 (01 Mart 2022): 183-200. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.838812.

JAMA

1.Beyzatlar MA, Çağlı EÇ. ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular. AKÜSBD. 2022;24:183–200.

MLA

Beyzatlar, Mehmet Aldonat, ve Efe Çağlar Çağlı. “ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular”. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, c. 24, sy 1, Mart 2022, ss. 183-00, doi:10.32709/akusosbil.838812.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar, Efe Çağlar Çağlı. ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular. AKÜSBD. 01 Mart 2022;24(1):183-200. doi:10.32709/akusosbil.838812

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

Transportation Services, Financial Market, and Industrial Production in the US: Evidence from the Recursive Evolving Causality Test

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

ABD’de Ulaşım Hizmetleri, Finansal Piyasa ve Endüstriyel Üretim: Özyinelemeli Nedensellik Testinden Elde Edilen Bulgular

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

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