Güneş Işınım Tahmininde NARX Modelinin Uygulanması

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 1 - 6, 15.06.2021

Ali Sarı Muzaffer Aktaş , Ahmet Yönetken , Rasim Doğan

Öz

Elektrik enerjisi üretiminde Fosil yakıtlardan, kaynak sıkıntısı olmayan yenilenebilir enerjiye doğru bir geçiş söz konusudur. Bu kaynaklardan en önemlisi güneş enerjisidir.
Güneş panellerinden üretilen enerji ise güneş ışınım miktarıyla doğrudan bağıntılıdır. Bu sebeple güneş ışınım tahmini, üretilecek enerji miktarının talebi karşılamada gereksinim duyulan enerjinin bilinmesi, diğer enerji kaynaklarının ekonomik kullanımını sağlar. Enerji üretiminde talep tahmininin önceden bilinmesi büyük önem taşımaktadır. Enerji talep tahmininde birçok yöntem kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada NARX tahmin modeli kullanılarak sıcaklık, nem ve yağış verilerinin değişken olduğu durumlarında güneş ışınımının tahmini incelenmiştir. Bunun için Ankara ili sınırlarından alınan ölçümler kullanılmıştır. Simülasyon sonuçları tablolar halinde verilerek araştırılması yapılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güneş ışınım tahmini, NARX modeli, Sıcaklık, Nem, Yağış

Application of NARX Model in Estimation of Solar Radiation

Öz

There is a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy without resource constraints in electrical energy production. The most important of these resources is solar energy. The energy produced by solar panels is directly related to the amount of solar radiation. For this reason, solar radiation estimation provides the economical use of other energy sources, knowing the energy needed to meet the demand for the amount of energy to be produced. It is very important to know the demand forecast in advance in energy production. Many methods are used in energy demand forecasting. In this study, the prediction of solar radiation in cases where temperature, humidity and precipitation data are variable by using NARX prediction model has been examined. For this, measurements taken from the borders of Ankara province were used. The simulation results are given in tables and researched.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Solar radiationprediction, NARX model, Temperature, Humidity, Precipitation

Kaynakça

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