Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis in European Countries and Türkiye with Fourier Functions

Yıl 2024, , 780 - 790, 30.09.2024

Serhat Alpağut

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1463030

Öz

İşsizlik histerezisi, artan işsizliğin zaman içinde ortalamasına dönmediği anlamına gelir. Bu durum ülkelerde işsizliğin geçici değil kalıcı olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. İşsizlik histerezisi durumunda, ekonomistler ekonomiye müdahale edilmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır. Böylece işsizlik histerisisinin varlığı, ekonomi politikalarının uygulanabilirliğini açısından önemlidir. Ekonomistler için oldukça önemli olan bu konu literatürde farklı yöntemlerle incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada birim kök testlerine son dönemde popüler olan Fourier modellerinin eklenmesiyle oluşturulan analizleri kullanılmıştır. Enders ve Lee (2012) tarafından geliştirilen Flexible Fourier ADF (FF-ADF) ve Omay (2015) tarafından geliştirilen Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier ADF (FFFF-ADF) testleri ile Türkiye ve AB ülkelerinde işsizlik histerezisinin varlığını araştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Fourier özelliklerinin hem Türkiye hem de AB için istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu ve serilerin nonlinear özellik taşıdığı tespit edilmiştir. Uygulanan testler sonucunda Türkiye ve AB için işsizlik histerezisinin geçerli olmadığına dair kanıtlar bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik Histerisi, Doğal İşsizlik Oranı, Fourier Birim Kök Testleri

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma etik kurul onayı gerektirmeyen türden bir araştırmadır.

Destekleyen Kurum

Destekleyen kurum yoktur.

Teşekkür

There is no supporting institution.

Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis in European Countries and Türkiye with Fourier Functions

Öz

Unemployment hysteresis means that rising unemployment does not return to the average over time. This situation underlines that unemployment in countries is not temporary but permanent. In the case of unemployment hysteresis, economists argue for intervention in the economy. The existence of unemployment hysteresis is therefore important for the applicability of economic policy. This issue, which is very important for economists, has been analyzed in the literature using different methods. In this study, we use the analyses obtained by adding the recently popular Fourier models to unit root tests. The Flexible Fourier ADF (FF-ADF) test developed by Enders and Lee (2012) and the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier ADF (FFFF-ADF) test developed by Omay (2015) are used to investigate the existence of unemployment hysteresis in Türkiye and EU countries. As a result, it is found that the Fourier properties are statistically significant for both Türkiye and the EU and that the series have nonlinear properties. As a result of the tests applied, there is evidence that unemployment hysteresis does not valid for Türkiye and the EU.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment Hysteresis, Natural Rate of Unemployment, Fourier Unit Root Tests

Etik Beyan

This study is a type of research that does not require ethics committee approval.

Kaynakça

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