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Türkiye Şeftali-Nektarin Üretimi ve Dış Ticareti: Mevcut Durum, Öngörüler ve Rekabet Gücü Analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2, 212 - 225, 15.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.18615/anadolu.1033597

Öz

Bu çalışmada, son on yıldaki gelişmeler dikkate alınarak dünya ve Türkiye şeftali-nektarin (Prunus persica L.) üretim ve ticaretindeki değişimler değerlendirilmiş, gelecek üç yıla ait Türkiye’nin üretim ve ihracat miktarları tahmin edilmiş ve önemli ihracatçı ülkelere ait rekabet gücü analizi yapılmıştır. 2010-2019 yıllarına ait veriler dikkate alındığında dünyada şeftali-nektarin üretim miktarı, üretim alanları ve verimliğinde önemli değişimler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Üretim ve ihracat tahmini Box-Jenkins metodu olan ARIMA modeli ile incelenmiştir. 1971-2020 yıllarını kapsayan 50 yıllık veriler kullanılarak üretimde en iyi modelin ARIMA (1,1,0), ihracatta ise ARIMA (0,1,2) olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Tahminler 2023 yılında Türkiye üretiminin 893,575 tona, ihracatının 157,343 tona yükseleceğini göstermektedir. Rekabet gücünün belirlenebilmesi için Balassa’nın açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlükler endeksi ve Vollrath’ın göreli ihracat avantajı endeksi, göreli ithalat avantajı endeksi, göreli ticaret avantajı endeksi ve açıklanmış rekabetçilik endeksi kullanılmıştır. Bu amaçla önemli ihracatçı ülkeler olan İspanya, Yunanistan, İtalya, Çin, Şili, ABD, Ürdün, Özbekistan ve Hollanda incelenmiştir. 2010-2019 yıllarını kapsayan periyotta hesaplanan endeks değerleri dikkate alındığında Türkiye’nin şeftali-nektarin ihracatında karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğe sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. İspanya, Özbekistan, Yunanistan, Ürdün ve Şili karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğe sahip diğer ülkeler olarak dikkati çekmiştir. Türkiye’nin elde ettiği bu karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğünü koruyabilmesi için mevcut pazarların korunması yanında, yeni pazar arayışlarına hız verilmesi oldukça önemlidir.

Kaynakça

  • Anonymous, 2021a. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. Rome, ITALY.
  • Anonymous, 2021b. International Trade Center, Trade statistics for international business development.
  • Available at: https://www.trademap.org/.
  • Anonymous, 2021c. Turkish Statistical Institute. Available at:https://www.tuik.gov.tr/. Ankara, TURKEY.
  • Balassa, B. 1965. Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 33 (2):99-123.
  • Balcı, D., and F. H. Giray 2020. Competitive analysis of Isparta fruit sector through diamond model. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology 8(3): 784-792. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v8i3.784-792.3358
  • Berk, A., T. Bal, and İ. Uçum 2016. Fruit and vegetable trade competitiveness of Turkey. XII. Ulusal Tarım Ekonomisi Kongresi. 25-27 May 2016. Isparta.
  • Box, G. E. P., and G. M. Jenkins 1976. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. Revised Edition, Holden DayInc. California.
  • Çelik, Z., H. Saçtı, and H. Adanacıoğlu 2019. Trends in foreign trade of cherry and Turkey’s comparative advantage. YYU Journal of Agricultural Science 29 (Special Issue): 41-53.
  • Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49 (4): 1057-1072.
  • Gül, M., and M. Akpınar 2006. An assessment of developments in fruit production in the world and Turkey. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences 19 (1): 15-27.
  • Hinloopen, J., and C. V. Marrewijk 2001. On the empirical distribution of the Balassa index. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 137: 1–35.
  • Kaygısız, F., and F. H. Sezgin 2017. Forecasting goat milk production in Turkey using artificial neural networks and Box-Jenkins models. Animal Review 4 (3): 45-52.
  • Ketenci, C. K., and Z. Bayramoğlu 2018. Competition analysis of walnut production in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences 5 (3): 339-347. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.448387
  • Kurt, R., and S. Karayılmazlar 2019. Mushroom production and projection in Turkey using ARIMA (Box-Jenkins). Turkish Journal of Forestry Research 6 (1):72-76.
  • Küçükoflaz, M., A. Akçay, E. Çelik, and S. Sarıözkan 2019. Forecasting of red meat and milk prices of Turkey with using the Box-Jenkins models. Journal of The Turkish Veterinary Medical Society 90 (2): 122-131.
  • Linghong, H., R. Yongmei, and M. Yongqing 2015. Evaluating the peach export competitiveness of Hebei province based on Analytic Hierarchy Process. In: Seventh International Conference on Measuring Technology and Mechatronics Automation (ICMTMA). 13-14 June. Nanchang, China.
  • Özdemir, B. M., and L. Kösekahyaoğlu 2018. Analysis of Turkey’s competitiveness in hazelnut, olive oil and dried apricot using revealed comparative advantage index. ASSAM International Refereed Journal 5 (12): 88-107.
  • Özer, O. O., and U. İlkdoğan 2013. The world cotton price forecasting by using Box-Jenkins Model. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty 10 (2): 13-20.
  • Özmen, A. 1986. Zaman serisi analizinde Box-Jenkins yöntemi ve banka mevduat tahmininde uygulama denemesi. Doktora tezi. Anadolu Ünivesitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Eskişehir.
  • Sevüktekin, M., and M. Nargeleçekenler 2010. Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi – Eviews Uygulamalı. Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Ankara.
  • Shalbuzov, N., F. Fikretzade, and R. Huseyn 2020. The international competitiveness of Azerbaijani fruit and vegetable products. Studies in Agricultural Economics 122 (1): 51-55. https://doi.org/10.7896/j.1921
  • Topuz, B. K., M. Bozoğlu, U. Başer, and N. A. Eroğlu 2018. Forecasting of apricot production of Turkey by using Box-Jenkins Method. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 2 (2): 20-26.
  • Vollrath, L. T. 1991. A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 127 (2): 265-280.

Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2, 212 - 225, 15.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.18615/anadolu.1033597

Öz

In this study, changes in peach-nectarine (Prunus persica L.) production and trade in the world and Turkey have been evaluated considering developments in the last decade. Turkey's production and export volumes for the next three years were also estimated, and competitiveness analysis was performed for the major exporting countries. According to 2010-2019 data, it was determined that there were significant changes in peach-nectarine production, production areas, and productivity in the world. Production and export forecasting was examined with the ARIMA model, which is the Box-Jenkins method. By using 50-year data covering 1971-2020, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model in production and ARIMA (0,1,2) in exports. Estimates indicated that Turkey's export and production in 2023 would be 893.575 and 157.343 tons, respectively. To determine competitiveness, Balassa's revealed comparative advantage and Vollrath's relative export advantage ındex, relative ımport penetration ındex, relative trade advantage ındex, and revealed competitiveness were used. For this purpose, important exporting countries such as Spain, Greece, Italy, China, Chile, USA, Jordan, Uzbekistan and the Netherlands were examined. Considering the index values calculated for the period covering the years 2010-2019, it has been determined that Turkey has a comparative advantage in peach-nectarine exports. Spain, Uzbekistan, Greece, Jordan, and Chile attracted attention as other countries with comparative advantage. Besides protecting existing markets, speeding up the search for new markets is very important to maintain the comparative advantage gained by Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Anonymous, 2021a. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. Rome, ITALY.
  • Anonymous, 2021b. International Trade Center, Trade statistics for international business development.
  • Available at: https://www.trademap.org/.
  • Anonymous, 2021c. Turkish Statistical Institute. Available at:https://www.tuik.gov.tr/. Ankara, TURKEY.
  • Balassa, B. 1965. Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 33 (2):99-123.
  • Balcı, D., and F. H. Giray 2020. Competitive analysis of Isparta fruit sector through diamond model. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology 8(3): 784-792. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v8i3.784-792.3358
  • Berk, A., T. Bal, and İ. Uçum 2016. Fruit and vegetable trade competitiveness of Turkey. XII. Ulusal Tarım Ekonomisi Kongresi. 25-27 May 2016. Isparta.
  • Box, G. E. P., and G. M. Jenkins 1976. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. Revised Edition, Holden DayInc. California.
  • Çelik, Z., H. Saçtı, and H. Adanacıoğlu 2019. Trends in foreign trade of cherry and Turkey’s comparative advantage. YYU Journal of Agricultural Science 29 (Special Issue): 41-53.
  • Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49 (4): 1057-1072.
  • Gül, M., and M. Akpınar 2006. An assessment of developments in fruit production in the world and Turkey. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences 19 (1): 15-27.
  • Hinloopen, J., and C. V. Marrewijk 2001. On the empirical distribution of the Balassa index. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 137: 1–35.
  • Kaygısız, F., and F. H. Sezgin 2017. Forecasting goat milk production in Turkey using artificial neural networks and Box-Jenkins models. Animal Review 4 (3): 45-52.
  • Ketenci, C. K., and Z. Bayramoğlu 2018. Competition analysis of walnut production in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences 5 (3): 339-347. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.448387
  • Kurt, R., and S. Karayılmazlar 2019. Mushroom production and projection in Turkey using ARIMA (Box-Jenkins). Turkish Journal of Forestry Research 6 (1):72-76.
  • Küçükoflaz, M., A. Akçay, E. Çelik, and S. Sarıözkan 2019. Forecasting of red meat and milk prices of Turkey with using the Box-Jenkins models. Journal of The Turkish Veterinary Medical Society 90 (2): 122-131.
  • Linghong, H., R. Yongmei, and M. Yongqing 2015. Evaluating the peach export competitiveness of Hebei province based on Analytic Hierarchy Process. In: Seventh International Conference on Measuring Technology and Mechatronics Automation (ICMTMA). 13-14 June. Nanchang, China.
  • Özdemir, B. M., and L. Kösekahyaoğlu 2018. Analysis of Turkey’s competitiveness in hazelnut, olive oil and dried apricot using revealed comparative advantage index. ASSAM International Refereed Journal 5 (12): 88-107.
  • Özer, O. O., and U. İlkdoğan 2013. The world cotton price forecasting by using Box-Jenkins Model. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty 10 (2): 13-20.
  • Özmen, A. 1986. Zaman serisi analizinde Box-Jenkins yöntemi ve banka mevduat tahmininde uygulama denemesi. Doktora tezi. Anadolu Ünivesitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Eskişehir.
  • Sevüktekin, M., and M. Nargeleçekenler 2010. Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi – Eviews Uygulamalı. Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Ankara.
  • Shalbuzov, N., F. Fikretzade, and R. Huseyn 2020. The international competitiveness of Azerbaijani fruit and vegetable products. Studies in Agricultural Economics 122 (1): 51-55. https://doi.org/10.7896/j.1921
  • Topuz, B. K., M. Bozoğlu, U. Başer, and N. A. Eroğlu 2018. Forecasting of apricot production of Turkey by using Box-Jenkins Method. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 2 (2): 20-26.
  • Vollrath, L. T. 1991. A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 127 (2): 265-280.
Toplam 24 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ziraat, Veterinerlik ve Gıda Bilimleri
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Alamettin Bayav Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-8093-2988

Melike Çetinbaş Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-2755-2396

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Aralık 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 8 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Bayav, A., & Çetinbaş, M. (2021). Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness. ANADOLU Ege Tarımsal Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi, 31(2), 212-225. https://doi.org/10.18615/anadolu.1033597
AMA Bayav A, Çetinbaş M. Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness. ANADOLU. Aralık 2021;31(2):212-225. doi:10.18615/anadolu.1033597
Chicago Bayav, Alamettin, ve Melike Çetinbaş. “Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness”. ANADOLU Ege Tarımsal Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi 31, sy. 2 (Aralık 2021): 212-25. https://doi.org/10.18615/anadolu.1033597.
EndNote Bayav A, Çetinbaş M (01 Aralık 2021) Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness. ANADOLU Ege Tarımsal Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi 31 2 212–225.
IEEE A. Bayav ve M. Çetinbaş, “Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness”, ANADOLU, c. 31, sy. 2, ss. 212–225, 2021, doi: 10.18615/anadolu.1033597.
ISNAD Bayav, Alamettin - Çetinbaş, Melike. “Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness”. ANADOLU Ege Tarımsal Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi 31/2 (Aralık 2021), 212-225. https://doi.org/10.18615/anadolu.1033597.
JAMA Bayav A, Çetinbaş M. Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness. ANADOLU. 2021;31:212–225.
MLA Bayav, Alamettin ve Melike Çetinbaş. “Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness”. ANADOLU Ege Tarımsal Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi, c. 31, sy. 2, 2021, ss. 212-25, doi:10.18615/anadolu.1033597.
Vancouver Bayav A, Çetinbaş M. Peach Production and Foreign Trade of Turkey: Current Situation, Forecasting and Analysis of Competitiveness. ANADOLU. 2021;31(2):212-25.
29899ANADOLU Journal by Aegean Agricultural Research Institute is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0  

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