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1918 Grip Pandemisi Kıssasından COVID-19 Pandemisine Hisseler

Yıl 2020, Sayı: Special Issue on COVID 19, 63 - 78, 20.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.21673/anadoluklin.716868

Öz

Yirminci yüzyıl başından bu yana dünyada respiratuvar virüslerden kaynaklanan beş pandemi gerçekleşmiştir. Bunlardan ilk dördü grip (İnfluenza A) virüslerinden kaynaklanmışken halihazırda sürmekte olan COVID-19 pandemisi bir koronavirüs suşundan ileri gelmiştir. 1918 tarihli “İspanyol gribi” pandemisi dünya genelinde yaklaşık 500 milyon kişiyi kapsamış ve 40–100 milyon ölümle sonuçlanmış olup, bugün respiratuvar viral pandemiler için olabilecek “en kötü senaryo” kabul edilmektedir. Halihazırdaki COVID-19 pandemisi de Aralık 2019’dan bugüne (Nisan 2020), >1,2 milyon vaka ve >60 bin ölümle sürmektedir. Bu pandemide, virüsün türü (yeni ve pandemik bir SARSr-CoV suşu) ve konağın yaşı (>50–60 yaş) temelinde daha yüksek mortaliteli, yeni bir “koronavirüs hastalığı” gözlenmekte olup tıp (başta epidemiyoloji ve halk sağlığı) tarihinde yeni bir sayfa açılmıştır. Yanı sıra, 1918’de olduğu gibi yüz yıl sonra bugün de halen efektif bir anti(korona)viral tedavi bulunmamakta ve bu çaresizliğin klinik, sosyolojik, psikolojik ve makroekonomik sonuçları dünyada ve ilk resmi vakanın 11 Mart’ta kaydedildiği Türkiye’de şimdiden derinden hissedilmektedir. Ayrıca, yine 1918 pandemisinin mortalitenin giderek arttığı üç dalga halinde seyretmiş olduğu gibi, COVID-19 pandemisinde de gelecek haftalarda daha sarsıcı bir epizodun başlaması endişe edilen ihtimaller arasındadır. Bu yazıda katastrofik 1918 pandemisi esnasında yaşananlardan hareketle önümüzdeki COVID-19 sürecinde yaşanabilecek olanlara dair bir mukayese yapmak ve sonuçlar çıkarmak, önümüzdeki risklerin (başta virülansı ve dolayısıyla mortaliteyi artırabilecek bir viral mutasyon) ciddiyetini vurgulamak ve böylece T.C. Sağlık Bakanlığı başta olmak üzere pek çok ulusal ve küresel sağlık otoritesi tarafından çeşitli medya kanalları aracılığıyla yinelenmekte olan sosyal izolasyon çağrısını desteklemek amaçlanmıştır.

Kaynakça

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Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Yıl 2020, Sayı: Special Issue on COVID 19, 63 - 78, 20.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.21673/anadoluklin.716868

Öz

Since the early 20th century, the world has seen five pandemics caused by respiratory viruses. While the first four of these were caused by flu (Influenza A) viruses, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is due to a coronavirus strain. Now considered a “worst-case scenario” for respiratory viral pandemics, the “Spanish flu” of 1918 afflicted 500 million people and resulted in 40–100 million deaths worldwide. Since December 2019 to date (April 2020), the current COVID-19 has been confirmed in >1.2 million cases and >60 thousand deaths around the globe. A new “coronavirus disease,” with a higher mortality based on the type of the virus (a novel, pandemic SARSr-CoV strain) and host age (>50–60 years), has been identified during this global health crisis, opening a new period in the history of medicine, particularly epidemiology and public health. Furthermore, today, one hundred years after 1918, there is still no effective anti(corona)viral treatment, with its clinical, sociological, psychological, and macroeconomic impacts being already felt around the world and in Turkey, where the first official case was reported on 11 March. Also, there is the worrisome possibility that the COVID-19 pandemic may develop into an even more serious problem in the following weeks, similarly to the 1918 pandemic that occurred in three waves marked by increasingly higher mortality. In this study, we aimed to infer from the experience of the catastrophic 1918 pandemic for the rest of the ongoing COVID-19 calamity, highlight the imminent risks (most notably, viral mutation that could result in higher virulence and mortality), and thus support the calls for social isolation, repeated through various mass media by many global and national health authorities, particularly the Turkish Ministry of Health.

Kaynakça

  • 1. Temel MK. Gelmiş Geçmiş En Büyük Katil: 1918 “İspanyol” Gribi. İstanbul: BETİM; 2015:163.
  • 2. Hegarty S. Koronavirüs, SARS, MERS ve Ebola gibi salgın hastalıkların sayısı neden artıyor? BBC News Türkçe (29 Ocak 2020). Erişim: www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-51296505 (erişildi: 20 Mart 2020).
  • 3. Webster RG. Influenza viruses (orthomyxoviridae): general features. In: Granoff A, Webster RG (ed.), Encyclopedia of Virology, 2. ed. San Diego: Academic Press; 1999:845.
  • 4. Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Hampson AW. The epidemiology and clinical impact of pandemic influenza. Vaccine. 2003;21(16):1762–8.
  • 5. Hilleman MR. Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control. Vaccine. 2002;20(25–26):3068–87.
  • 6. Yeung JWK. A hypothesis: sunspot cycles may detect pandemic Influenza A in 1700–2000 AD. Med Hypotheses. 2006;67(5):1016–22.
  • 7. Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Handel A, Miller MA, Simonsen L. Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. Vaccine. 2006;24(44–46):6701–7.
  • 8. Bynum B. Stories of an influenza pandemic. Lancet. 2009;373(9667):885–6.
  • 9. Heikkinen T, Jarvinen A. The common cold. Lancet. 2003;361(9351):51–9.
  • 10. Eccles R. Understanding the symptoms of the common cold and influenza. Lancet Infect Dis. 2005;5(11):718–25.
  • 11. Oldstone DBA. Viruses, Plagues, and History: Past, Present and Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2010:306–11.
  • 12. Brundage JF. Interactions between influenza and bacterial respiratory pathogens: implications for pandemic preparedness. Lancet Infect Dis. 2006;6(5):303–12.
  • 13. Oxford JS, Lambkin R, Elliot A, Daniels R, Sefton A, Gill D. Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century. Vaccine. 2006;24(44–46):6742–6.
  • 14. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12(1):15–22.
  • 15. Hays JN. The Burdens of Disease: Epidemics and Human Response in Western History, 2 ed. New Brunswick, NJ/ABD: Rutgers University Press; 2009:274–8.
  • 16. Schoenbaum SC. The impact of pandemic influenza, with special reference to 1918. Int Congr Ser. 2001;1219:43–51.
  • 17. Potter CW, Jennings R. A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records. J Infection. 2011;63(4):252–9.
  • 18. Phillips H, Killingray D (ed.). The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19: New Perspectives. Abingdon-on-Thames, BK: Routledge; 2003:4–9,30.
  • 19. Shanks GD, Brundage JF. Pathogenic responses among young adults during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2012;18(2):201–7.
  • 20. Epidemia benigna. La enfermería en Madrid. ABC (22 Mayıs 1918).
  • 21. Trilla A, Trilla G, Daer C. The 1918 “Spanish flu” in Spain. Clin Infect Dis. 2008;47(5):668–73.
  • 22. Johnson N. Britain and the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic: A Dark Epilogue. Abingdon-on-Thames, BK: Routledge; 2006:37–9,45,189.
  • 23. Smallman-Raynor MR, Cliff AD. War Epidemics: An Historical Geography of Infectious Diseases in Military Conflict and Civil Strife, 1850–2000. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2004:402.
  • 24. Guénel J. La grippe « espagnole » en France en 1918–1919. Histoire des sciences médicales. 2004;38(2):165–75.
  • 25. Sellwood C. Brief history and epidemiological features of pandemic influenza. In: Van-Tam J, Sellwood C (ed.), Introduction to Pandemic Influenza. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2010:45–8.
  • 26. Berche P. Les mystères de la grippe espagnole. In: Faut-il Encore Avoir Peur de la Grippe?: Histoire des Pandémies. Paris: Odile Jacob; 2012:73–5.
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  • 94. Dünya Sağlık Örgütü. Timeline of influenza A(H1N1) cases – laboratory confirmed cases and deaths as reported to WHO. Erişim: www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/history_map/InfluenzaAH1N1_maps.html (erişildi: 5 Nisan 2020).
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  • 100. Hatısaru S. Yerli solunum cihazı imdada yetişiyor. Milliyet (1 Nisan 2020). Erişim: www.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/songul-hatisaru/yerli-solunum-cihazi-imdada-yetisiyor-6178537 (erişildi: 3 Nisan 2020).
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  • 103. Bats and snakes: Indonesia’s extreme meat market booms despite virus warning. Breaking Asia (12 Şubat 2020). Erişim: www.breakingasia.com/news/bats-and-snakes-indonesias-extreme-meat-market-booms-despite-virus-warning (erişildi: 24 Mart 2020).
Toplam 103 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi
Bölüm ORJİNAL MAKALE
Yazarlar

M. Kemal Temel 0000-0003-2533-8641

Hakan Ertın 0000-0002-8193-5865

Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Mart 2020
Kabul Tarihi 9 Nisan 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Sayı: Special Issue on COVID 19

Kaynak Göster

Vancouver Temel MK, Ertın H. 1918 Grip Pandemisi Kıssasından COVID-19 Pandemisine Hisseler. Anadolu Klin. 2020;25(Special Issue on COVID 19):63-78.

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