Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın (DYY) Somali'nin Ekonomik Büyümesine Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi

Öz

Günümüzde küreselleşmenin etkisiyle ülkeler arasındaki mali sınırların ortadan kalktığı bilinen bir gerçektir. Sınırlar kaldıkça doğrudan yabancı yatırımların önemi de artmaktadır. Çünkü doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, özellikle gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma için büyük bir fırsattır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı Somali'de 1970-2022 yılları arasında doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini ARDL sınır testi yardımıyla ampirik olarak incelemektir. Tahmin bulgularına göre Somali’de belirtilen dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişkinin olduğu görülmektedir. Çalışmada ayrıca ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi olduğu düşünülen nüfus artışı, ticaret dengesi, döviz kuru ve enflasyon değişkenleri de incelenmiştir. Buna göre nüfus artışı ve ticaret dengesi ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu bulunurken, döviz kuru ve enflasyon değişkenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif bulunmuştur. Bununla birlikte katsayılar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. İç tasarrufları yetersiz olan az gelişmiş veya gelişmekte olan ülkeler için doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ülkeye çekilmesinde ekonomik istikrar oldukça önemlidir. Bu noktada ülkelerin, makroekonomik göstergelerini istikrarlı hale getirmek için çaba sarfetmeleri gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• Reel GSYİH
• Enflasyon
• Ticaret Dengesi
• ARDL

Effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Economic Growth of Somalia: ARDL Bounds Test

Öz

It is a known fact that today, with the influence of globalization, financial borders between countries have disappeared. As borders remain, the importance of foreign direct investments also increases. Because foreign direct investments are a great opportunity for economic growth and development, especially for developing economies. In this direction the aim of this study is to empirically examine the impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Somalia between 1970 and 2022 with the help of the ARDL bounds test. According to the estimation findings, there is a positive and significant relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth in Somalia in the specified period. The study also examined variables such as population growth, trade balance, exchange rate and inflation, which are thought to have an impact on economic growth. Accordingly, while population growth and trade balance were found to have a positive effect on economic growth, the effect of exchange rate and inflation variables on economic growth was found to be negative. However, the coefficients are statistically significant. For underdeveloped or developing countries with insufficient domestic savings, economic stability is very important in attracting foreign direct investments to the country. At this point, countries need to make efforts to stabilize their macroeconomic indicators.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Real GDP
• Inflation
• Trade Balance
• ARDL

Kaynakça

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