Türkiye İslami Piyasalarında Ramazan Ayı Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma kapsamında Ramazan ayının Türkiye İslami piyasalar üzerindeki etkisi incelenecektir. Türkiye İslami piyasalarını temsilen BİST tarafından hesaplanan Katılım 30 (KAT30) endeksi, ele alınmış ve bu endekse ait 17 Şubat 2011 ile 30 Aralık 2016 tarihleri arasındaki döneme ilişkin günlük getiriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışma da Ramazan Ayı on günlük dilimlere ayrılarak üç kukla değişken oluşturulmuş ve oluşturulan bu kukla değişkenlerin modeldeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada 3 EGARCH modeli kurulmuştur; birinci modelde kukla değişkenler ortalama denklemine, ikinci modelde varyans denklemine, üçüncü modelde ise ortalama ve varyans denklemine eklenmiştir. Çalışma neticesinde, elde edilen bulguların Türkiye İslami piyasalarında Ramazan ayı etkisinin varlığını işaret ettiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi,Dini Günler Anomalisi,Ramazan Ayı Etkisi,İslami Finans,Katılım 30

The Effect of the Month of Ramadan in Turkish Islamic Markets

Abstract

Within the scope of this study, the effect of the month of Ramadan on the Turkish Islamic markets will be scrutinized. Participation 30 (KAT30) index, which is calculated by BIST representing the Islamic markets of Turkey, was taken into account and the daily returns for this index between the dates of 17 February 2011 and 30 December 2016 were used. In this study, three dummy variables were generated by dividing the month of Ramadan into ten days and the effect of these dummy variables on modeling was investigated. In the study, 3 EGARCH model was set up; dummy variables in the first model are added to the mean equation, to the variance equation in the second model, and both the mean and variance equation in the third model. As a result of the study, it was observed that the findings obtained indicated the presence of Ramadan effect in Turkish Islamic markets.   

Keywords

• Effective Market Hypothesis,Religious Days Anomaly,Effect of the month of Ramadan,Islamic Finance,Participation 30

Kaynakça

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