2010 Sonrasında Orta Doğu'da Değişen Bölgesel Düzende Hamas-FKÖ/Fetih Uzlaşısı ve Yakınlaşması: Neo-Realist ve Neo-Klasik Realist Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Bu makale iki ana soruya değinmektedir. Birincisi, 2010 yılından itibaren bölgesel dinamikler ve iç tercihler, Filistin uzlaşısını ve yakınlaşmasını nasıl etkiledi (sınırlandırdı ya da zorladı)? İkincisi,  realist teori, Hamas ve El-Fetih’in uzlaşı ve yakınlaşma konusundaki tercihlerinde ortaya çıkan benzerlikleri ve farklılıkları anlamada bize yardımcı olur mu? 2011 yılından beri, Ortadoğudaki baskın devletler, hesapları ve kontrolleri ötesinde rekabet içerisindeki güçler ve büyük güç elde etmeye çalışan devletler ile devlet-dışı aktörlere yönelik tepkisel ve proaktif bir tutum sergilemektedir. Devlet dışı aktörler olan Hamas ve El-Fetih’in tepki gösterdiği anlaşmazlık, kendilerinin politik tercihlerine ve stratejilerine de işaret eden bölgesel dinamiklerin sınırlamaları ve fırsatlarına ilişkin bakış açılarındaki farklılıklara işaret eden önemli tedbirler/önlemler üzerinedir. Bu makale, özellikle sistemik ve iç faktörlerin karşılıklı etkileşiminin, iki rakip hareketi ulusal birliğin sağlanması noktasında oldukça farklı yörüngelere yerleştirdiği sonucuna varmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, her iki realist akım (neo-realizm ve neo-klasik realizm), farklı açıklama kapasitesi/fırsatları ile birlikte teorik çerçeve olarak uygun görünmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fetih,Hamas,Filistin,Arap Baharı,Realizm

Hamas-PLO/Fatah Reconciliation and Rapprochement within the Unfolding Regional Order in the Middle East since 2010: Neorealist and Neoclassical Realist Perspectives

Abstract

This article addresses two main questions. First, how have regional dynamics and domestic pathologies since 2010 affected (i.e., constrained or delimited) Palestinian reconciliation and rapprochement? Second, can the realist theory of international relations (IR) help us understand the differences or similarities observed in Hamas’s and Fatah’s preferences for reconciliation and rapprochement? Since the turn of the decade, dominant states in the Middle East have become reactive (and proactive) toward state and non-state actors; they have become inclined to react to power magnitude and forces of competition beyond their calculations and control. The differential reactions of both non-state actors, Fatah and Hamas, is due in substantial measure to marked differences in the windows of opportunity, and constraints on regional dynamics that have affected their policy preferences and strategies. This article concludes that the interplay of systemic and domestic factors has notably set the two rival movements on distinctly different trajectories of national unity. In this sense, both streams of realism (neorealism and neoclassical realism) seem appropriate as theoretical frameworks, albeit with different explanatory power/opportunities.   

Keywords

• Fatah,Hamas,Arab Spring,Reconciliation,Realism

Kaynakça

1. Abu-Amer, A. (2015, February 5). Hamas reaches out to new Saudi leadership. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/hamas-saudi-arabia-rapprochement.html.
2. Abunimah, A. (2011, January 27). The Palestine papers and the ‘Gaza coup. The Electronic Intifada. Retrieved from http://electronicintifada.net/content/palestine-papers-and-gaza-coup/9200.
3. ALQUDS. (2015, May 19). Shalah leaves tehran, big differences halted Iran’s support for the movement. Alquds. Retrieved from http://www.alquds.com/news/article/view/id/558683.
4. Alquds Al-Arabi Online. (2012). Opposition within hamas and the PLO on the Doha declaration and Fayyad may remain as finance minister. Retrieved from www.alquds.co.uk.
5. Amour, P. O. (2012). Practical, theoretical, and methodological challenges of field research in the middle east. Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 45(3), 143-149.
6. Amour, P. O. (2013). Transition in Palestinian politics: The case of the october war. In A. Siniver (Ed.), The october war: Politics, diplomacy, legacy (pp. 137-154). London, UK: Hurst & Company.
7. Amour, P. O. (2017). Israel, the Arab Spring, and the unfolding regional order in the middle east: A strategic assessment. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 44(3), 293-309.
8. Ashrawi, H. (2012, September 25). Why the United Nations? Alquds Al-Arabi. Retrieved from www.alquds.co.uk. Associated Press. (2015, June 6). Egypt’s leader tries to rule as a one-man show after a year in office. Time. Retrieved from http://time.com/author/associated-press.

9. Balousha, H. (2014, July 3). Hamas committed to unity deal despite Israeli pressure. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/palestine-hamas-committed-reconciliation-israel-kidnapping.html.
10. Barahmeh, S. (2014). The Palestinians, the PLO, and political representation: The search for Palestinian self-determination. In P. R. Neumann, A. Bregman, J. Mitchell, & K. Rothman (Eds.), The Atkin Paper Series. London, UK: ICSR.
11. BBC News. (2012, November 30). Q&A: Palestinians’ upgraded UN status. BBC News. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-13701636.
12. Beinin, J. (2012). The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Arab awakening. Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture, 18(1), 52-60.
13. Black, I. (2011, October 18). Gilad shalit exchange may be poisoned chalice for Mahmoud Abbas. The Guardian.Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/18/gilad-shalit-exchange-mahmoud-abbas.
14. Blade, E. (2015, June 9). Worse than hamas? ISIS in Gaza. Israel Today. Retrieved from http://www.israeltoday.co.il/Default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=26756.
15. Booth, W., & Gearan, A. (2014, June 2). Palestinians form new unity government that includes hamas. The Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/palestinians-form-new-unity-government-including-hamas/2014/06/02/c681d5c6-ea46-11e3-9f5c-9075d5508f0a_story.html.
16. Bronner, E. (2011, October 11). Israel and Hamas agree to swap prisoners for soldier. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/world/middleeast/possible-deal-near-to-free-captive-israeli-soldier.html?_r=0.
17. Bronner, E. (2012, November 19). Gaza crisis poses threat to faction favored by U.S. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/middleeast/hamas-strengthens-as-palestinian-authority-weakens.html?_r=0.
18. Bronner, E., & Farrell, S. (2011, October 18). Israeli soldier swapped for hundreds of Palestinians. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/world/middleeast/israel-and-palestinians-begin-prisoner-exchange.html?_r=0.
19. Buzan, B., & Wæver, O. (2003). Regions and powers: The structure of international security. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
20. Byman, D. (2011). Israel's pessimistic view of the Arab Spring. The Washington Quarterly, 34(3), 123-136.
21. Caspit, B. (2014, December 16). US will veto Palestinian UN bid. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/en/originals/2014/12/israel-usa-washington-netanyahu-obama-veto-un-palestinians.html.
22. Copeland, D. C. (2012). Realism and neorealism in the study of regional conflict. In T. V. Paul (Ed.), International relations theory and regional transformation (pp. 49-73). Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
23. Danan, D. (2014, July 28). Saudi official says hamas responsible for deaths in Gaza; Columnist calls for peace with Israel. The Algemeiner. Retrieved from http://www.algemeiner.com/2014/07/28/saudi-official-hamas-responsible-for-deaths-in-gaza/.
24. Darweish, M. (2013). The Palestinian Israeli conflict in the shadow of the Arab revolutions. Journal of Conflict, Transformation & Security, 3(2), 154-172.
25. Demirtaş, S. (2015, June 9). Turkey to deploy troops in Qatar in line with military deal. Hurriyet Daily News. Retrieved from http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-to-deploy-troops-in-qatar-in-line-with-military-deal.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83677&NewsCatID=510.
26. Develen, B., & Özgür, Ö. (2009). Neoclassical realism and foreign policy crises: Between tradition and innovation. In A. Freyberg-Inan, E. Harrison, & P. James (Eds.), Rethinking realism in international relations (pp. 158-196). Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
27. El Husseini, R. (2010). Hezbollah and the axis of refusal: Hamas, Iran and Syria. Third World Quarterly, 31(5), 803-815.
28. Elgindy, K. (2011). The Palestinians: Between national liberation and political legitimacy. In K. M. Pollack (Ed.), The Arab awakening: America and the transformation of the middle east (pp. 128-136). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
29. Ezbidi, B. (2013). “Arab Spring”: Weather forecast for Palestine. Middle East Policy, 20(3), 99-110.
30. Ghanem, A. (2013). The Palestinians – lessons from the Arab Spring. Contemporary Arab Affairs, 6(3), 422-437.
31. Gordon, N., & Cohen, Y. (2012). Western interests, Israeli unilateralism, and the two-state solution. Journal of Palestine Studies, 41(3), 6-18.
32. Howeidy, A. (2013, March 21). Egypt’s Muslim brotherhood has reneged on promises to Palestine. The Electronic Intifada. Retrieved from http://electronicintifada.net/content/egypts-muslim-brotherhood-has-reneged-promises-palestine/12301.
33. Hudson, M. C. (2011, February 1). Egypt on the brink: The Arab world at a tipping point? Jadaliyya. Retrieved from http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/518/egypt-on-the-brink_the-arab-world-ata-tipping-point.
34. Khamaisi, R. (2010). The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Building the future Palestine. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 51(6), 716-732.
35. Khoury, H. (2012). The Arab re-awakening and the hopes for a Palestinian state. Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture, 18(1), 78-83.
36. Kitchen, N. (2010). Systemic pressures and domestic ideas: A neoclassical realist model of grand strategy formation. Review of International Studies, 36(1), 117-143.
37. Kontorovich, E. (2013). Israel/Palestine — the ICC’s uncharted territory. Journal of International Criminal Justice, 11(5), 979-999. Kuttab, D. (2014, July 11). Israel targets Hamas-Fatah unity in Gaza. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/palestinian-reconciliation-israel-war-gaza-hamas-fatah.html.
38. Kuttab, D. (2015, July 11). Palestinian reconciliation deal a Hamas surrender. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/fatah-plo-hamas-reconciliation-israel.html.
39. Leech, P. (2015). Who owns “the spring” in Palestine? Rethinking popular consent and resistance in the context of the “Palestinian state” and the “Arab Spring”. Democratization, 22(6), 1011-1029.
40. Levy, D. (2011, October 12). 10 Comments on the Israel-Hamas prisoner exchange deal. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/12/10-comments-on-the-israel-hamas-prisoner-exchange-deal/.
41. Lindenstrauss, G., & Kivam, K. S. (2014). Turkish-Hamas relations: Between strategic calculation and ideological affinity. Strategic Assessment, 17(2), 7-16.
42. Lobell, S. E., Ripsman, N. M., & Taliaferro, J. W. (2009). Neoclassical realism, the state, and foreign policy. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
43. MacFarquhar, N., & Myers, S. L. (2011, September 23). Palestinians request U.N. status; Powers press for talks. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/world/palestinians-submit-statehood-bid-at-un.html?_r=1.
44. Malley, R. (2011, May 3). The Arab Spring is driving the Hamas-Fatah unity deal. The Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-arab-spring-is-driving-the-hamas-fatah-unity-deal/2011/05/03/AFxbd6iF_story.html.
45. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company.
46. Milton-Edwards, B. (2013). Hamas and the Arab Spring: Strategic shifts? Middle East Policy, 20(3), 60-72.
47. Mingst, K. A. (2013). Essentials of international relations. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company.
48. Mish’al, K. (2013, April 1). Political thought and strategies of Hamas in light of the Arab uprisings. Afro-Middle East Centre (AMEC). Retrieved from http://www.amec.org.za/89-articles-presentations/palestine-israel1/452-political-thought-and-strategies-of-hamas-in-light-of-the-arab-uprisings.html.
49. Mozgovaya, N., & Ravid, B. (2012, November 27). Ahead of thursday’s vote U.S.: Palestinian UN bid is a ‘mistake,’ negotiations are only way forward.
50. Haaretz Online. Retrieved from https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/u-s-palestinian-un-bid-is-a-mistake-negotiations-are-only-way-forward.premium-1.480986.
51. Muasher, M. (2014). The second Arab awakening: And the battle for pluralism. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
52. Munayyer, Y. (2011). Prospects for Palestinian unity after the Arab Spring. Insight Turkey, 13(3), 21-31.
53. Nye, J. S. (1990). The changing nature of world power. Political Science Quarterly, 105(2), 177-192.
54. Pace, M. (2013). An Arab ‘spring’of a different kind? Resilience and freedom in the case of an occupied nation. Mediterranean Politics, 18(1), 42-59.
55. Palestine Strategy Study Group. (2008). Regaining the initiative: Palestinian strategic options to end Israeli occupation. Oxford: Palestine Strategy Group. Retrieved from http://www.palestinestrategygroup.ps/Regaining_the_Initiative_FINAL_17082008_%28English%29.pdf.
56. Panayiotides, N. (2012). The regional implications of the Arab uprising. Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture, 18(1), 71-77.
57. Pearlman, W. (2017, October 24). Does the Palestinian reconciliation deal make peace more likely? The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/10/24/does-the-palestinian-reconciliation-deal-make-peace-more-likely/?utm_term=.25d2455ef7a8.
58. Pogodda, S., & Richmond, O. P. (2015). Palestinian unity and everyday state formation: Subaltern ‘ungovernmentality’versus elite interests. Third World Quarterly, 36(5), 890-907.
59. Pratt, N. (2013). The ‘‘Arab Spring’’and the Israel-Palestine conflict: Settler colonialism and resistance in the midst of geopolitical upheavals. Middle Eastern Studies/Ortadogu Etutleri, 5(1), 10-40.
60. Pressman, J. (2008). Warring friends: Alliance restraint in international politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
61. Raialyoum. (2015, June 4). News about secret visit to Khaled Meshaal to Riyadh with Qatari-mediation. Raialyoum. Retrieved from http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=267498.
62. Ronen, Y. (2014). Israel, Palestine and the ICC — territory uncharted but not unknown. Journal of International Criminal Justice, 12(1), 7-25.
63. Schanzer, J. (2013, June 21). How Hamas lost the Arab Spring. The Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/06/how-hamas-lost-the-arab-spring/277102/.
64. Schroeder, P. W. (1976). Alliances, 1815–1945: Weapons of power and tools of management. In K. E. Knorr (Ed.), Historical dimensions of national security problems (pp. 227-262). Lawrence: University of Kansas Press.
65. Schweitzer, Y. (2015). Hamas and the Islamic state organization: Toward a head-on collision in the gaza strip? The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), no. 697. Retrieved from http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=9524.
66. Shuttlerworth, K., & Cunningham, B. (2015, April 23). In besieged Gaza, Palestinian unity deal sparks hope, caution. Al Jazeera America. Retrieved from http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/4/23/palestine-unity-gaza.html.
67. Stephens, M. (2012, October 30). Shuttle diplomacy: Qatar playing politics in Palestine. Open Democracy. Retrieved from https://www.opendemocracy.net/michael-stephens/shuttle-diplomacy-qatar-playing-politics-in-palestine.
68. Taliaferro, J. W. (2012). Neoclassical realism and the study of regional order. In T. V. Paul (Ed.), International relations theory and regional transformation (pp. 74-104). Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
69. Tartir, A. (2012, April 9). Fatah and Hamas: An elusive reconciliation. Open Democracy Online. Retrieved from http://www.opendemocracy.net/alaa-tartir/fatah-and-hamas-elusive-reconciliation.
70. The New Arab. (2016, July 10). Thousands attend anti-Iran rally in Paris. The New Arab. Retrieved from https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2016/7/10/thousands-attend-anti-iran-rally-in-paris United Nations. (2012, November 29). General assembly votes overwhelmingly to accord Palestine ‘non-member observer state’ status in united nations. United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/press/en/2012/ga11317.doc.htm.
71. Walt, S. M. (1994). The origins of alliance. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
72. Waltz, K. N. (1995). Realist thought and neorealist theory. In C. W. Kegley (Ed.), Controversies in international relations theory: Realism and the neoliberal challenge (pp. 67-82). New York, NY: St. Martin's Press.
73. Waltz, K. N. (2010). Theory of international politics. Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press.
74. Weitsman, P. A. (2014). Waging war: Alliances, coalitions, and institutions of interstate violence. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
75. Wivel, A. (2017, September 13). Realism in foreign policy analysis. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Retrieved from http://politics.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-475.
76. Yaari, E., & Zilber, N. (2014, April 24). The Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation Agreement: Too Early to Judge. Washington Institute. Retrieved from http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-hamas-fatah-reconciliation-agreement-too-early-to-judge.