Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Gelişmiş, Gelişmekte Olan ve Az Gelişmiş Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışma 1980-2012 dönemi arasında gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve az gelişmiş ülkelerdeki kamu harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilediğini incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, kamu harcamalarının azgelişmiş ülkeler için sabit ve rassal etki modellerinde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğunu; ancak, gelişmiş ülkelerde kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında anlamlı negatif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ise kamu harcamaları, sabit efektif model durumunda ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemekte; buna karşın rassal etki modelden elde edilen bulgulara göre değişkenler arasında pozitif ve anlamsız bir ilişki vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme,Kamu Harcamaları,Panel Veri Analizi

Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Analysis of Developed, Developing and Underdeveloped Countries

Öz

This paper assess how the government expenditures affected economic growth in developed, developing and underdeveloped countries by using the unbalanced panel approach for the period of 1980-2012. The results indicate that government spending has positive significant impact on economic growth in fixed and random effect models for underdeveloped countries, while for developed countries there is a significant negative relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both fixed and random effect models. For the developing countries government spending has negative significant impact on economic growth in case of fixed effect model, while for the random effect model, there is positive and insignificant relationship of government spending to economic growth.   

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Government Expenditure,Economic Growth,Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Akitoby, B., Clements, B., Gupta, S., & Inchauste, G. (2006). Public Spending, Voracity, Wagner's Law in Developing Countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 22, 908-924.
2. Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., Perotti, R., & Schiantarelli, F. (1999). Fiscal Policy, Profits, And Investments. Working Paper, 7207.
3. Alexiou, C. (2009). Government Spending and Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence from the Southern Eastern Europe. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 11, 1-16.
4. Arpaia, A., & Turrini, A. (2008). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short Term Adjustment. Economic and Financial Affairs, 1-52.
5. Bader, S. A., & Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2012). Government expenditures, Military Spending, and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria. Working paper, 1-25.
6. Baldacci, E., Gupta, S., & Granados, C. M. (2013). Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit Constrained Economies. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/238.
7. Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Endogenous Growth Model. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103-125.
8. Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 1-27.

9. Barro, R. J. (2005). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103-125.
10. Barro, R. J., & Redlick, C. J. (2011). Macroeconomic Effects of Government Purchases and Taxes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126, 51-102.
11. Bayrak, M., & Esen, Ö. (2014). Examining the Validity of Wagner's Law in the OECD Economies. Research in Applied Economics, 6(3), 1-16.
12. Besley, T., Pande, R., & Rao, V. (2011). Just Rewards? Local Resources and Public Resources Allocation in South India. The World Bank Economic Review, 26, 191-216.
13. Besley, T., Persson, T., & Sturm, D. M. (2010). Political Competition, Policy and Growth:Theory and Evidence from the US. Review of Economic Studies, 77, 1329-1352.
14. Chamorro-Narvaez, R. (2012). The Composition of Government Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Case of Latin America. OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 5(6), 39-50.
15. Charemza, W. W., & Deadman, D. F. (1993). New Directions in Econometric Practice. Vermont: Edward Elgar Publishing.
16. Çınar, S. (2010). OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan Mı? Panel Veri Analizi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 29(2), 591-601.
17. Constantinos, A. (2009). Governement Spending and Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence From South Eastern Europe (SEE). Journal of Economic and Social Research, 11.
18. Dao, M. Q. (2012). Government Expenditure and Growth in Developing Countries. Progress in Development Studies, 12, 77-82.
19. Dinca, M. S., & Dinca, G. (2013). The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth Post Communist Countries. Scientific Annals of the “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iasi ~ Economic Sciences Section, 60, 83-92.
20. Dioikitopoulos, E. V., & Kalyvitis, S. (2010). Endogenous Time Preference and Public Policy:Growth and Fiscal Implications. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14, 243-257.
21. Drmaechea, S. A., & Marozumi, A. (2013). Can a Government Enlarge Long Run Growth by Changing the Composition of Public Expenditure (Vol. 13). IMF Working Paper.
22. Economides, G., Park, H., & Philippopolous, A. (2011). How Should the Government Allocate its Resources between Productivity Enhance and Utility Enhancing Public Goods? Macroeconomic Dynamics, 15, 336-364.
23. Eğilmez, M. (2017). Ricardo-Barro Hipotezine Karşı Arz Yönlü Ekonomi Yaklaşımı. (Access date: 16.02.2018), http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/12/ricardo-barro-hipotezine-kars-arz-yonlu.html.
24. Ellis, C., & Faricy, C. (2011). Social Policy and Public Opinion: How the Ideological Direction of Spending Influence the Public Mood. The Journal of Politics, 73, 1095-1110.
25. Esen, Ö., & Bayrak, M. (2015). Kamu Harcamalari ve Ekonomik Büyüme Iliskisi: Geçis Sürecindeki Türk Cumhuriyetleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Bilig, 73, 231-248.
26. Fan, S., & Rao, N. (2003). Public Spending in Developing Countries: Trends, Determination and Impacts. EPDT Discussion Paper No. 99.
27. Faricy, C. (2011). The politics of social policy in America: The Causes And Effects of Indirect Versus Direct Social Spending. The Journal of Politics, 73, 74-83.
28. Futagami, K., Iwaisako, T., & Ohdoi, R. (2008). Debt Policy Rule, Productive Government Spending, And Multiple Growth Path. Macroeconomic Dyanmics, 12, 445-462.
29. Garrett, T. A., & Wheelcok, D. C. (2006). Why Did Income Growth Vary Across The States During The Great Depression? The Journal of Economic History, 66(2), 456-466.
30. Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438.
31. Granger, C. W. J. (1964). Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
32. Gwartney, J., Lawson, R., & Holcombe, R. (1998). The Size and Functions of Government and Economic Growth. Joint Economic Comittee.
33. Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
34. Hashimzade, N., & Myles, G. D. (2010). Growth and Public Infrastructure. Macroecnomic Dynamic, 14, 258-274.
35. Hsieh, E., & Lai, K. S. (1994). Government Spending and Economic Growth:the G-7 Experience. Applied Economics, 26, 535-545.
36. Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
37. Kutlar, A. (2007). Ekonometriye Giriş. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
38. Lee, C. C. (2005). Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: a cointegrated panel analysis. Energy economics, 27(3), 415-427.
39. Lipsmeyer, C. (2002). Parties and Policy: Evaluating Economic Partisan Influences on Welfare Policy Spending during the European Post-Communist Transition. Cambridge University Press, 32, 641-661.
40. Loizidies, J., & Vamvoukas, G. (2005). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing. Journal of Applied Economics, 125-152.
41. Marrero, G. A. (2008). Revisting the Optimal Stationary Public Investment Policy in Endougenous Growth Model. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12, 172-194.
42. Martin, L. W., & Vanberg, G. (2013). Multiparty Government, Fiscal Institutions and Public Spending. The Journal of Politics, 1-15.
43. Mattaeo, L. D. (2009). Policy Choice Or Economic Fundamentalists: What Drives The Public-Private Health Expenditure Balance In Canada? Health Economics, policy and law, 4, 29-53.
44. Moraga, J. F. H., & Vidal, J. P. (2010). Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model. Journal of Pension Economics & Finance, 9(2), 277-302.
45. Mourmouras, A., & Peter, R. (2009). Fiscal Policy and Economic Development. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 13, 450-476.
46. Muritala, T., & Taiwo, A. (2011). Government Expenditure and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 3(9), 18-28.
47. Noorudin, I., & Simmons, J. W. (2006). The Politics of Hard Choices: IMF Programs and Government Spending. International Organization, 60, 1001-1033.
48. Palazuelos, E. (2013). Economic Growth and Welfare State: A Case Study of Sweeden. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1-17.
49. Park, C. M. (2010). Public Attitude Towards Government Spending in the Asia Pacific Region. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 11, 77-97.
50. Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653-670.
51. Ramey, V. A. (2011). Identifying Government Spending Shocks:It's All In The Timing. Quarterly Journal Of Economics, (126), 1-50.
52. Rasiah, R., & Shari, I. (2001). Market, Government And Malaysia's New Economic Policy. Cambridge Journal Of Economics, 25, 57-78.
53. Rickard, S. J. (2012). Welfare versus subsidies: Governmental spending decisions in an era of globalization. The Journal of Politics, 74(4), 1171-1183.
54. Rodden, J. (2003). Reviving Leviathan: Fiscal Federalism and the Growth of Government. International Organization, 57, 695-729.
55. Roy, A. G. (2012). Revisiting the Relationship between Economic Growth and Government Size. Economics Research International, 1-8.
56. Rubio, O. B. (2000). A Further Generalization of Solow Growth Model: The Role of Public Sector. Economic Letters, 68, 79-84.
57. Samimi, A. J., & Habibian, F. (2010). Government Size And Economic Growth: New Evidence from Some Developing Countries. Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2, 118-123.
58. Shiller, R. J. (2007). Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007(2), 111-132.
59. Simonazzi, A. (2003). Innovation and Growth:Supply and Demand Factors in the Recent US Expansion. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 27, 647-669.
60. Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Journal of Quarterly Economics, 70, 65-94.
61. Taylor, L., Proano, C. R., Carvlaho, L. D., & Barbosa, N. (2012). Fiscal Deficits, Economic Growth and Government Debt in U.S.A. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 36, 189-204.
62. Weller, C. E. (2004). The Future of Public Pension in OECD Countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 28, 489-504.
63. Wu, S. Y., Tang, J. H., & Lin, E. S. (2010). The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(6), 804-817.