The Effect of Voting Power on Inflation

Öz

The relation between economy and politics shows itself in its sharpest way in the economy politics of the governments. The aim of this study is to add one more variable to the variables found in political instability literature and put forward its relation with inflation. Voting power expresses the power of opposition parties and ruling party in any decision making process. Another aim of the study is to analyse the effects of voting power on inflation which are mostly used in instability literature and Normalized Banzhaf Index value which is formed regarding to the election results of 47 countries in the 1987-2019 period. According to the analysis results, total power index values of the coalition parties and the governing party are inversely proportional with inflation and significant results are obtained for all the variables. The power voting index of the main opposition parties and inflation has a directly proportional effect and meaningful relation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Voting Power
• Normalized Banzhaf Index
• Inflation

Oylama Gücünün Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Ekonomi ve politika arasındaki ilişki kendisini en net şekilde hükümetlerin ekonomi politikalarında gösterir. Çalışmanın amacı politik istikrarsızlık literatüründe yer alan ampirik araştırmalardaki değişkenlere yeni bir değişken ekleyerek, enflasyon ile oylama gücü arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymaktır. Oy gücü, siyasal karar alma mekanizmasında iktidardaki veya muhalefetteki partilerin bir karar almada ellerinde bulundurdukları güçtür. Çalışmada oylama gücünün 47 ülkenin 1987-2019 döneminde gerçekleşen seçim sonuçları temelinde oluşturulan ve çoğunlukla istikrarsızlık literatüründe kullanılan Normalize Edilmiş Banzhaf İndeksi değerleri ile enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, İktidarı oluşturan büyük partinin ve koalisyonu sağlayan partilerin güç indeks değerleri istatistiksel olarak enflasyon üzerinde anlamlı negatif etkiye sahiptir. Ana muhalefet partilerinin oylama gü

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Oy Gücü
• Banzhaf Güç İndeksi
• Enflasyon

Kaynakça

1. Aisen, Ari & Francisco Jose, Veiga, (2008). Political Instability and Inflation Volatility. Public Choice, 135(3), 207–223.
2. Agbewali, F. (2011). Critical Analysis of the Impact of Government Expenditure and Money Supply on Inflation Rate on the Economy of Ghana. Regent-Maastricht School of Management, 1-54.
3. Alavirad, Abbas, (2003). The Effect of Inflation on Government Revenue and Expenditure: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Opec Review, 27(4), 331–341.
4. Alesina, Alberto, (1989). Politics and Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies. Economic Policy, 4(8), 55–98.
5. Aleskerov, Fuad, Hasan, Ersel & Yavuz, Sabuncu, (2000). Power and Coalitional Stability in the Turkish Parliament, 1991–1999. Turkish Studies, 1(2), 21–38.
6. Aleskerov, Fuad, Valeriy, Kalyagin ve Kirill, Pogorelskiy, (2008). Actual Voting Power of the IMF Members Based on Their Political- Economic Integration. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 48, 1554–1569.
7. Algaba, E., J. M. Bilbao Ve J. R. Fernandez, Garcia, (2007). The Distribution of Power in the European Constitution. European Journal of Operational Research, 176(3), 1752–1766.
8. Andres, Javier, Ignacio, Hernando & J. David Lopez, Salido, (2004). The Role of Financial System in the Growth-Inflation Link: The OECD Experience. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(4), 941–961.

9. Bakırtaş, İbrahim ve Cüneyt, Koyuncu, (2005), Türk Sermaye Piyasası Üzerinde Politik Olayların Etkisi. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 20(234), 115–123.
10. Bakırtaş, İbrahim ve Cüneyt, Koyuncu, (2010). The Relationship Between Voting Power and Stock Exchange Market: The Case of Turkey. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 48, 23–32.
11. Baldwin, Richard & Mika, Tapani Widgren, (2005). The Impact of Turkey’s Membership on EU Voting. Centre For European Policy Studies, Brussels, 62, 331–340.
12. Banzhaf, John F, (1965). Weighted Voting Doesn’t Work: A Mathematical Analysis, Rutgers Law Review, 19(2), 317–343.
13. Barro, Robert, J. (1991). Economic Growth in A Cross Section of Countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443.
14. Berument, Hakan & Jac, Heckelman, (2005). Fractionalization Effect and Government Financing. The International Journal of Applied Economics, 2(1), 37–49.
15. Blomberg, Brock & J. Lawrence, Broz, (2006). The Political Economy of IMF Voting Power. The Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, (Erişim: 25.03.2019) Http://Www.Princeton.Edu/~Pcglobal/Conferences/Ipes/Papers/Broz_Blomberg _F1030_1.Pdf .
16. Bruno, Michael & William, Easterly, (1998). Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), 3–26.
17. Burdekin, Richard C. K., Arthur, T., Denzau, Manfred, W., Keil, Thitithep, Sitthiyot & Thomas, D. Willet, (2004). When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 26(3), 519–532.
18. Catao, Luis A.V. & Marco, E. Terrones, (2005). Fiscal Deficits and Inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(3), 529-554.
19. Chaudhary, Mohammad Aslam & Naved, Ahmad, (1995). Money Supply, Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 34(4), 945–956.
20. Chiriac, Constantin, (2008). Economic Efficiency of EU Decision Making Process Case Study: Measurement of Voting Power Indices of Romanian Parliament 1996–2004. Theoretical And Applied Economics, 12, 81– 88.
21. Cukierman, Alex, Sebastian, Edwards & Guido, Tabellini, (1992). Seignorage and Political Instability. American Economic Review, 82(3), 537–555.
22. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Stanley, Fischer, (1994). Macroeconomics. 6. Baskı, Mcgraw-Hill.
23. Edwards, Sebastian & Guido, Tabellini, (1991). Explaining Fiscal Policies and Inflation in Developing Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 10(1), 16–48.
24. Eren, Ercan ve Melike, Bildirici, (2001). Türkiye’de 1990 Sonrası İktisadi Krizlerin Siyasal ve İktisadi Nedenleri, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Sayı: 41, 166–174.
25. Ericsson, Neil R., John, S. Irons & Ralph, W. Tryon, (2001). Output and Inflation in the Long Run. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 241–253.
26. Ezirim, C., Muoghalu, M., & Elike, U. (2008). Inflation versus Public Expenditure Growth in the US: An Empirical Investigation, North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 2(2), 26-40.
27. Felshenthal, Dan, S. & Moshe, Machover, (1998). The Measurement of Voting Power. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.
28. Felshenthal, Dan, S. & Moshe, Machover, (2004). A Priori Voting Power: What is it All About?. Political Studies Review, 2(1), 1–23.
29. Felshenthal, Dan, S. & Moshe, Machover, (2005). Voting Power Measurement: A Story of Misreinvention. Social Choice and Welfare, 25(2), 485–506.
30. Fischer, Stanley, (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485–512.
31. Gasiorowski, Mark J. (1998). Macroeconomic Condition and Political Instability: An Empirical Analysis. Studies in Comparative International Development, 33(3), 3–17.
32. Gelman, Andrew, Jonathan, N. Katz & Francis, Tuerlinckx, (2002). The Mathematics and Statistics of Voting Power. Statistical Science, 17(4), 420–435.
33. Gillman, Max & Anton, Nakov, (2004). Granger Causality of the Inflation- Growth Mirror in Accession Countries. Economics of Transition, 12(4), 653–681.
34. Grier, Kevin B. & Gordon, Tullock, (1989). An Empirical Analysis of Cross- National Economic Growth, 1951–1980. Journal Of Monetary Economics, 24(2), 259–276.
35. Judson, Ruth & Athanasios, Orphanides, (1999). Inflation, Volatility and Growth. International Finance, 2(1), 117–138.
36. Han, S. & Mulligan, C. (2008). Inflation and the Size of Government, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 90(3), 245-267.
37. Heard, Andrew ve Tim, Swartz, (1999). Extended Voting Measures, The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 27(1), 173–182.
38. Hondroyiannis, George & Evangelia, Papapetrou, (1997). Are Budget Deficits Inflationary? A Cointegration Approach. Applied Economics Letters, 4(8), 493–496.
39. Hossaın, Akhtar & Anis, Chowdhury, (1998). Open Economy Macroeconomics for Developing Countries. Edward Elgar.
40. Kim, Sung & Thomas, D. Willett, (2000). Is the Negative Correlation Between Inflation and Economic Growth Real? An Analysis of the Effects of the Oil Supply Shocks. Applied Economics Letters, 7(3), 141–147.
41. Kuştepeli, Yeşim ve Önel, Gülcan, (2006). Türkiye’de Hükümetlerdeki Politik Parçalanma ve İdeolojinin Bütçe Üzerine Etkileri: 1976-2004, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 21(243), 56-66.
42. Leech, Dennis & Robert, Leech, (2004). Voting Power in the Bretton Woods Institutions. Warwick Economic Working Paper, No: 718, (Erişim: 06.08.2019), Http://Wrap.Warwick.Ac.Uk/1472/1/Wrap_Leech_Twerp718.Pdf.
43. Levinsky, Rene & Peter, Silarszky, (1998). Voting Power and Coalition Formation: The Case of the Council of the Eu. East European Series, 56, 1–28.
44. Li, Hongyi & Heng-Fu, Zou, (2002). Inflation, Growth and Income Distrubution: A Cross Country Study. Annals of Economics And Finance, 3, 85– 101.
45. Martin, Luther. (1937). The Genuine Information Delivered to the Legislature of the State of Maryland Relating to the Proceeding of the General Convention, in Max Farand, ed., The Records of the Federal Convention of 1787 (1937 rev. ed.), Vol. 3, Yale University Press, pp. 172-232.
46. Mishkin, F. S. (1992). The Economics of Money, Banking And Financial Markets. 3. Baskı, Harper Collins. Motley, Brian, (1998). Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study. Economic Review, 1, 15–28.
47. Narayan, P. K., S. Narayan, & A. D. Prasad, (2006). Modeling the Relationship between Budget Deficits, Money Supply and Inflation in Fiji. Pacific Economic Bulletin, 21(2), 103–116.
48. Neumann, Von John ve Oskar, Morgenstern, (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
49. Nurmi, Hannu & Tommi, Meskanen, (1999). A Priori Power Measures and the Institutions of the European Union. European Journal of Political Research, 35(2), 161–179.
50. Paul, Satya, Colm, Kearney & Kabir, Chowdhury, (1997). Inflation and Economic Growth: A Multi- Country Empirical Analysis. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1387–1401.
51. Penrose, Lionel, S. (1946). The Elementary Statistics of Majority Voting, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 109(1), 53–57.
52. Piontkivsky, R., M., Bakun, M. Kryshko, & T. Sytnyk, (2001). The Impact of the Budget Deficit on Inflation in Ukraine. International Centre For Policy Studies, 1–25.
53. Raunio, Tapio & Matti, Wiberg, (1998). Winners and Losers in the Council: Voting Power Consequences of EU Enlargements. Journal Of Common Market Studies, 36(4), 549–562.
54. Raunio, Tapio & Matti, Wiberg, (2002). Controlling Outcomes: Voting Power in the European Parliament 1979–2000. European Integration, 24(2), 75–90.
55. Reynaud, Julien, Christian, Thımann & Lukasz, Gatarek, (2007). Proximity and Linkages Among Coalition Participants: A New Voting Power Measure Applied to the International Monetary Fund European Central Bank. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 819.
56. Riker, William H. (1959). A Test of the Adequacy of the Power Index. Behavioral Science, 4(2), 120–131.
57. Robson, Alex, (2007). Voting Power in the Australian Senate: 1901–2004. The Australian National University, College of Business And Economics, School Of Economics, Working Papers, 480.
58. Ruge M.F. (1999). Government Expenditure and the Dynamics of High Inflation, Journal of Development Economics, (58), 333-358.
59. Saas, T. R. (2001). The Anatomy of Political Representation: Direct Democracy, Parliamentary Democracy, and Representative Democracy. The Elgar Companion To Public Choice, William F. Shughart Ve Laura, Razzolını, (Ed.), Edward Elgar Publishing, Usa.
60. Shapley, Lloyd S. (1953). A Value for N-Person Games. Contributions to the Theory of Games Iı, A.W. Tucker Ve R. D. Luce (Ed.), Princeton University Press, Ss. 307–317.
61. Shapley, Lloyd S. & Martin, Shubik, (1954). A Method for Evaluating the Distribution of Power in A Committee System. American Political Science Review, 48(3), 787–792.
62. Solomon, M. & A. Wet, (2004). The Effect of A Budget Deficit on Inflation: The Case of Tanzania. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 7(1), 100–116.
63. Sutter, Matthias, (2000). Flexible Integration, Emu and Relative Voting Power in the EU. Public Choice, 104(1-2), 41–62.
64. Şanlısoy, Selim ve Kök, Recep, (2010). Politik İstikrarsızlık -Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1987–2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1), 101-125.
65. Turnovec, Frantıšek, (2007). New Measure of Voting Power, Czech Economic Review, Sayı: 1, No: 1, ss. 4–14.
66. Valdovinos, C. ve G.Fernández (2003). Inflation and Economic Growth in The Long Run. Economics Letters, 80(2), 169–173.