Finansal İstikrar ile Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Girişleri Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bir Uygulama
Yıl 2018,
Cilt: 6 Sayı: ICEESS’ 18, 195 - 200, 15.12.2018
Melek Aksu
,
Şakir Sakarya
,
Sadık Aksu
Öz
Bu çalışmada finansal
istikrar ile doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişleri arasındaki nedensellik
ilişkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Finansal istikrarın ölçülebilmesi için
Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik 2007-Q2 ile 2015-Q4 dönemlerini kapsayan finansal gelişmişlik, finansal kırılganlık, finansal
sağlamlık, finansal esneklik, makroekonomik esneklik ve küresel risk endeksleri
altında otuz dört göstergeyi içeren bir kompozit finansal istikrar endeksi
kullanılmıştır. Finansal istikrar endeksi ile
doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişleri arasındaki ilişki Granger nedensellik testi
ile test edilmiştir. Granger nedensellik testi sonucunda doğrudan yabancı
sermaye girişlerinden finansal istikrara doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu
tespit edilmiştir.
Kaynakça
- Aksu, S. (2017). Finansal istikrar göstergeleri ve Türkiye ekonomisi için finansal istikrar endeksi önerisi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Balıkesir: Balıkesir Üniversitesi.
- Albulescu, C. T., Briciu, L., & Coroiu, S. I. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in CEECS: The role of financial stability. Scientific Annals of the “Alexandru Ioan Cuza”, Economic Sciences Section, (Special Issue), 85-96.
- Babecký, J., Havránek, T., Matějů, J., Rusnák, M., Šmídková, K., & Vašíček, B. (2013). Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 35, 1-19.
- Bird, G., & Rajan, R. S. (2002). Does FDI guarantee the stability of international capital flows? Evidence from Malaysia. Development Policy Review, 20(2), 191-202.
- Brukoff, P. & Rother, B. (2007). FDI may not be as stable as governments think. IMF Survey Magazine: IMF Research, 29.
- Crockett, A. (1997). Why is financial stability a goal of public policy? Symposium of Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy, FED of Kansas City.
- FED (2015). Annual Report 2015: Financial Stability. (Erişim: 22.02.2017), https://www.federalreserve.gov/ publications/annual-report/2015-financial-stability.htm
- Fell, J., & Schinasi, G. (2005). Assessing financial stability: exploring the boundaries of analysis. National Institute Economic Review, 192, 102-117.
- Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
- Hausmann, R., & Fernández-Arias, E. (2000). Foreign direct investment: Good cholesterol?. Working Paper, No. 417, Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Loungani, P., & Razin, A. (2001). How beneficial is foreign direct investment for developing countries?. Finance and Development, 38(2), 6-9.
- Margeirsson, O. (2015). Foreign direct investment: A focused literature review. Working Paper No. 104, Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity.
- Mariana, V. D. (2011). Foreign direct investments during financial crises. Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, 1(2), 41-45.
- Mencinger, J. (2008). Addiction to FDI and current account balance. Working Paper, No. 16, International Centre for Economic Research.
- Morris, V. C. (2011). Measuring and forecasting financial stability: The composition of an aggregate financial stability index for Jamaica. Journal of Business, Finance & Economics in Emerging Economies, 6(2), 34-51.
- Padoa-Schioppa, T. (2002). Central banks and financial stability: exploring a land in between. Gaspar, V., Hartmann, P. ve Sleijpen, O. (Ed.). The Transformation of the European Financial System, Second ECB Central Banking Conference. 24-25 October 2002, Frankfurt, Germany, (s.269-310).
- Poulsen, L. S., & Hufbauer, G C. (2011) Foreign direct investment in times of crisis. Working Paper, No. 11-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Schinasi, G. J. (2004). Defining financial stability. Working Paper, No. 04/187. International Monetary Fund.
- Stiglitz, J. E. (1994). The role of the state in financial markets. The World Bank Report, No. 14334, (Erişim: 08.09.2018), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/239281468741290885/The-role-of-the-state-in-financial-markets
- Svrtinov, G., Gorgieva-Trajkovska, O., & Kostadinovski, A. (2013). The impact of financial instability on FDI dynamics. International Scientific Conference: “Finance and Economic Accounting-the Current Situation, Trends and Prospects. (Erişim: 08.09.2018), http://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/8576/
- TCMB (2018). Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. (Erişim: 04.04.2018), https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/ index.php?/evds/serieMarket
- Virolainen, K. (2001). Financial stability analysis at the Bank of Finland. BIS Papers, No. 1 (Marrying the macro and microprudential dimensions of financial stability), 186-196.
Anaylsis of the Relationship Between Financial Stability and Foreign Direct Inflows: An Analysis on the Economy of Turkey
Yıl 2018,
Cilt: 6 Sayı: ICEESS’ 18, 195 - 200, 15.12.2018
Melek Aksu
,
Şakir Sakarya
,
Sadık Aksu
Öz
This study investigates causality between financial stability and
foreign direct investment inflows. Firstly, a composite financial stability
index is constructed for the economy of Turkey between 2007-Q2 and 2015-Q4. The composite financial stability index is composed of
thirty four indicators of financial development, financial vulnerability,
financial soundness, financial elasticity, macroeconomic elasticity and global
risk indexes. After composing an aggregate financial stability index, the relation
between this index and foreign direct investment inflows is analysed by Granger
Causality Test. Uni-directional causality from foreign direct investment
inflows to financial stability is found.
Kaynakça
- Aksu, S. (2017). Finansal istikrar göstergeleri ve Türkiye ekonomisi için finansal istikrar endeksi önerisi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Balıkesir: Balıkesir Üniversitesi.
- Albulescu, C. T., Briciu, L., & Coroiu, S. I. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in CEECS: The role of financial stability. Scientific Annals of the “Alexandru Ioan Cuza”, Economic Sciences Section, (Special Issue), 85-96.
- Babecký, J., Havránek, T., Matějů, J., Rusnák, M., Šmídková, K., & Vašíček, B. (2013). Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 35, 1-19.
- Bird, G., & Rajan, R. S. (2002). Does FDI guarantee the stability of international capital flows? Evidence from Malaysia. Development Policy Review, 20(2), 191-202.
- Brukoff, P. & Rother, B. (2007). FDI may not be as stable as governments think. IMF Survey Magazine: IMF Research, 29.
- Crockett, A. (1997). Why is financial stability a goal of public policy? Symposium of Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy, FED of Kansas City.
- FED (2015). Annual Report 2015: Financial Stability. (Erişim: 22.02.2017), https://www.federalreserve.gov/ publications/annual-report/2015-financial-stability.htm
- Fell, J., & Schinasi, G. (2005). Assessing financial stability: exploring the boundaries of analysis. National Institute Economic Review, 192, 102-117.
- Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
- Hausmann, R., & Fernández-Arias, E. (2000). Foreign direct investment: Good cholesterol?. Working Paper, No. 417, Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Loungani, P., & Razin, A. (2001). How beneficial is foreign direct investment for developing countries?. Finance and Development, 38(2), 6-9.
- Margeirsson, O. (2015). Foreign direct investment: A focused literature review. Working Paper No. 104, Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity.
- Mariana, V. D. (2011). Foreign direct investments during financial crises. Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, 1(2), 41-45.
- Mencinger, J. (2008). Addiction to FDI and current account balance. Working Paper, No. 16, International Centre for Economic Research.
- Morris, V. C. (2011). Measuring and forecasting financial stability: The composition of an aggregate financial stability index for Jamaica. Journal of Business, Finance & Economics in Emerging Economies, 6(2), 34-51.
- Padoa-Schioppa, T. (2002). Central banks and financial stability: exploring a land in between. Gaspar, V., Hartmann, P. ve Sleijpen, O. (Ed.). The Transformation of the European Financial System, Second ECB Central Banking Conference. 24-25 October 2002, Frankfurt, Germany, (s.269-310).
- Poulsen, L. S., & Hufbauer, G C. (2011) Foreign direct investment in times of crisis. Working Paper, No. 11-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Schinasi, G. J. (2004). Defining financial stability. Working Paper, No. 04/187. International Monetary Fund.
- Stiglitz, J. E. (1994). The role of the state in financial markets. The World Bank Report, No. 14334, (Erişim: 08.09.2018), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/239281468741290885/The-role-of-the-state-in-financial-markets
- Svrtinov, G., Gorgieva-Trajkovska, O., & Kostadinovski, A. (2013). The impact of financial instability on FDI dynamics. International Scientific Conference: “Finance and Economic Accounting-the Current Situation, Trends and Prospects. (Erişim: 08.09.2018), http://eprints.ugd.edu.mk/8576/
- TCMB (2018). Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. (Erişim: 04.04.2018), https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/ index.php?/evds/serieMarket
- Virolainen, K. (2001). Financial stability analysis at the Bank of Finland. BIS Papers, No. 1 (Marrying the macro and microprudential dimensions of financial stability), 186-196.