Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, davranışsal finans ve psikoloji literatürlerinde yer alan çalışmalara oldukça sık konu olmuş kendine aşırı güven davranışsal önyargısı ve bu önyargının ölçülme veya açığa çıkarılma yöntemleri incelenmiştir. Kendine aşırı güven, bireylerin kendi yetenek ve bilgi düzeylerine gerçekçi olmayan bir şekilde aşırı güvenmeleri olarak ifade edilebilir. Kendine aşırı güvenin ölçülmesi bağlamında literatürde yer alan çalışmalar incelendiğinde birbirinden oldukça farklı yöntemlerin kullanıldığı görülmektedir. Bu yöntemlerden özellikle yatırımcıların kendine aşırı güvenleri ölçülmek istendiği durumlarda ve diğer psikolojik araştırmalarda kalibrasyon skoruna dayalı güven aralıklı anket yönteminin ve davranışsal kurumsal finans kapsamında yönetsel önyargının ölçülmesi gerektiği durumlarda ise ilk defa Malmendier ve Tate tarafından kullanılan opsiyon kullanımı temelli yaklaşımın tercih edildiği görülmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda kendine aşırı güvenin ölçümünde kullanılacak ölçek konusunda henüz tam bir fikir birliğinin olmadığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• davranışsal finans,psikolojik önyargılar,önyargıların ölçülmesi,Kendine aşırı güven

Overconfidence and Measurement Methods: A Literature Review in the Context of Behavioral Finance

Abstract

In this study, overconfidence behavioral bias, which is frequently mentioned in the behavioral finance and psychology literatures, and measurement methods of this bias are examined. Overconfidence can be expressed as an unrealistic trust of individuals in their ability and knowledge. When the studies  in terms of measuring overconfidence in the literature are examined, it is seen that quite different methods are used. These methods, especially when the overconfidence of investors is to be measured, and in other psychological studies, it is seen that the use of the confidence-interval survey method based on the calibration score is preferred.  And when the managerial bias is to be measured within the scope of behavioral corporate finance it is seen that the use of the option use-based approach which is used by Malmendier and Tate for the first time is preferred. As a result of the study, it has been observed that there is no complete consensus on the scale to be used for the measurement of overconfidence.

Keywords

• Overconfidence,Behavioral finance,Psychological biases,Measurement of biases

Kaynakça

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