Klientelizm ve Etnisitenin Parti Örgütü Değişimine Kısıtlayıcı Etkisi: Türkiye’de AKP ve İlçe Başkanlıkları Değişimi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 141 - 166, 15.02.2023

Gül Arıkan Akdağ Halide Yazgan

https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2023.06

Öz

Bu çalışma, var olan literatür bağlamında seçim ve parti içi ittifak kaygısının AKP’nin 2017 İlçe Kongrelerinde meydana gelen parti örgütü değişimi üzerindeki etkisini ölçmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Partinin bu kongreler öncesi karşı karşıya kaldığı seçim ve ittifak kaygıları, çalışmanın temel hipotezlerinin test edilmesi için uygun bir vaka olarak ele alınabileceği kanaatini güçlendirmektedir. Bu amaç için kullanılan veri seti Türkiye’deki 971 ilçenin ikincil verisinden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan bağımlı değişken, ilçe başkanının değişimidir. Uygulanan lojistik regresyonun sonuçları ilçede yüzer seçmenlerin ve bir önceki koalisyon üyelerinin oranındaki artışın AKP’nin örgüt değişimi olasılığı üzerindeki etkisinin geçerli ve pozitif ancak sınırlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Secim desteği açısından partinin güveninin istatistiki açıdan önemli bir faktör olarak ortaya çıkmaması AKP’nin 2017’de örgüt değişimini seçim rekabetinden bağımsız olarak değerlendirdiğine işaret etmektedir. Analizin ilginç bir sonucu ilçelerin sosyo-ekonomik gelişmişliğinin ve ilçelerde etnik grupların varlığının parti değişimini anlamlı bir şekilde etkilediğidir. Bu sonuçların ışığında, çalışma, parti örgütü değişiminin partilerin oy desteklerini, kaynakların seçmenlere şartlı dağılımı üzerine kurulu olan ve güçlü klientalist ağlar kullanan partiler için daha karmaşık bir süreç olduğu iddia edilmektedir. Benzer şekilde, partilerin bu seçmenlerle geliştirdikleri ilişkilerin özelliği sebebiyle bir etnik grubun varlığının kısıtlayıcı bir etkisi olduğu öne sürülmektedir. Bu çalışma, bu iki değişkenin parti örgütü değişimi üzerindeki etkisinin genelleştirilebilmesi için farklı kurgularda test edilmesi zorunluluğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Siyasal Partiler, Parti Örgütü, Klientalizm, Etnik Mobilizasyon, AKP

Clientelism and Ethnicity as Constraints to Party Organization Change: The AKP in Turkey and Change in District Presidencies

Öz

Based on the existing literature, the study tests the relevance of electoral and intra-party alliance concerns on party organization change for the AKP in its 2017 District Congress. We believe that both the electoral and intra-party alliance concerns the party faced in 2017, make it a suitable case to test the basic hypothesis of the study. The dataset used in the analysis consists of secondary data on 971 districts present in Turkey. District presidency change is employed as the key independent variable to estimate organization change. The result of the logistic regression indicates that the effect of increasing percentage of swing voters and members of the former alliance, despite being valid, have moderate positive effects on the AKP’s decision to change its organization. The insignificancy of the electoral safety of the party in the district reveals that in 2017 the AKP changed its organization regardless of the nature of the electoral competition it faces. Interestingly, results indicate that socioeconomic development and ethnic presence in districts are also significant factors that constrain organization change in the AKP. Based on these results we suggest that change in party organization becomes a more difficult issue in parties with strong clientelistic networks where political parties built electoral support through the conditional distribution of resources to voters. Similarly, ethnicity also acts as a constraint due to the peculiarity of the relations political parties develop with these groups. As such clientelism and ethnicity seem to have constraining effects on the abilities of parties to change their organizations. The results highlight the necessity of further research to generalize the validity of the effectiveness of clientelism and ethnic groups on political parties’ organization change on different settings.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Political Parties, Party Organization, Clientelism, Ethnic Mobilization, the AKP

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