AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR LAFFER CURVE: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

In 1974, Arthur Laffer pointed out that reductions in tax rates would rise tax revenues while increments in tax rates decreases tax revenue. This argument has been defined as Laffer curve. Laffer curve has been popular in 1980s and various empirical studies have been introduced by then. For the most part of the studies, the results supporting Laffer curve have been obtained. In this article, the econometric models of Laffer curve for Turkey for the period of 1982-2016 were estimated. The models give similar results. The applications of the tax administration takes place on the normal side of the Laffer curve for the most part of the sample period. Therefore, the increases in tax rates will raise tax revenues. For the rest of the sample period, the increases of tax rate will not raise tax revenues

Keywords

• Laffer Curve, Taxation, Optimal Tax, Model Estimation

LAFFER EĞRİSİ İÇİN UYGULAMALI BİR ANALİZ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Arthur Laffer 1974 yılında vergi oranlarındaki indirimlerin vergi gelirlerini arttırırken vergi oranlarındaki artışların da vergi gelirlerini azaltacağı görüşünü dile getirmiştir. Bu fikir daha sonra bu Laffer eğrisi adıyla tanımlanmıştır. 1980’li yıllarda oldukça ilgi gören Laffer eğrisi ile ilgili pek çok uygulamalı çalışma yapılmış ve genel olarak bu görüşü destekleyen sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1982-2016 dönemini kapsayan Laffer eğrisi ekonometrik model tahminleri elde edilmiştir. Bu modellerden elde edilen bulgular benzer sonuçlar vermiştir. Vergi yönetiminin uygulamaları söz konusu dönemin önemli bir kısmında Laffer eğrisinin normal alanında yer almaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu dönemlerde vergi oranındaki artış vergi gelirlerini arttıracaktır. Bunun dışında kalan kısa aralıklı dönemlerde ise vergi oranını arttırmak vergi gelirlerini arttırmayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Laffer Eğrisi, Vergileme, Optimal Vergi, Model Tahmini

Kaynakça

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