Seçili Avrupa ülkelerine ait rezerv paraları etkiyen faktörlerin panel veri analizi ile incelenmesi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 93 - 109, 31.12.2024

Yıldırım Demir , Şakir İşleyen , Ayvaz Bartik

https://doi.org/10.58588/aru-jfeas.1501533

Öz

Almanya, Fransa, İtalya ve İspanya'nın rezerv paraları, uluslararası finansal sistemde belirleyici bir rol oynamakta ve küresel ekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasına katkıda bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Almanya, Fransa, İtalya ve İspanya gibi Avrupa'nın önde gelen ekonomilerinin rezerv paralarını etkileyen faktörleri panel veri analizi ile araştırmaktır. Bulgulara göre; Toplam-Rezerv/GSYH ile TÜFE, Cari-Denge/GSYH ve GSYH Payı (dünya) arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Ayrıca Toplam-Rezerv/GSYH değişkeni üzerinde TÜFE ve GSYH Payı değişkenlerinin etkisinin uzun dönemde negatif ve anlamlı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Nedensellik testi ile de panelde TÜFE’den Toplam-Rezerv/GSYH’ye doğru tek yönlü anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma ile Almanya, Fransa, İtalya ve İspanya'nın rezerv para politikalarını şekillendiren temel faktörler belirlenecek olup; çalışmanın, bu ülkelerin ve uluslararası finans kurumlarının ekonomik kararlarına olumlu katkılar sağlayacağı ümit edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla, Panel Veri Analizi, Rezerv Paralar, Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi

Investigation of the factors affecting reserve currencies of the selected European countries by panel data analysis

Öz

Germany, France, Italy, and Spain’s reserve currencies play a decisive role in the international financial system and contribute to global economic stability. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the reserve currencies of leading European economies such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain using panel data analysis. According to the findings, a long term relationship exists between the Total Reserves/GDP ratio and variables such as CPI, Current Account Balance/GDP and GDP share world. Additionally, it has been determined that the effects of CPI and GDP Share on the Total Reserves/GDP ratio are negative and significant in the long term. Causality tests reveal a unidirectional significant causal relationship running from CPI to Total Reserves/GDP. As a result, this study aims to identify the fundamental factors shaping the reserve currency policies of Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, with the hope that it will positively contribute to the economic decisions of these countries and international financial institutions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gross Domestic Product, Panel Data Analysis, Reserve Currencies, Consumer Price Index

Kaynakça

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