UKRAYNA-RUSYA SAVAŞI TÜRK TİCARETİNİ NASIL ETKİLER?

Öz

Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı, uluslararası ticareti ve küresel tedarik zincirlerini tehdit etmeye devam ediyor. Bu makale, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının Türkiye'nin ihracat ve ithalatı üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Bu amaçla, çatışmadan en çok etkilenen sektörleri ortaya çıkarmak için 2016 ve 2020 yılları arasındaki Türkiye-Rusya ve Türkiye-Ukrayna 4 haneli Uyumlaştırılmış Tarife Cetveli (HTS) ticaret rakamları analiz edilmiştir. Bulgularımız, Türkiye'nin hem Rusya'ya hem de Ukrayna'ya yaptığı tarımsal ihracatın çatışmadan olumsuz etkileneceğini göstermekte olup narenciye ve domates ihracatının daralması muhtemeldir. Ticaretteki sıkıntıyı hissedecek diğer Türk ihracatçıları ise motorlu kara taşıtları, petrol yağları ve makine üreticileridir. Yaptırımlar Rus tüccarların iş yapma kabiliyetine zarar verirse, Türkiye Rusya'dan çeşitli demir-çelik ürünleri, dövme alüminyum, buğday, kömür, doğal gaz, petrol yağları ve amonyak ithal etmekte zorlanabilir. Ukrayna'dan demir, buğday, ayçiçeği, mısır veya mısır yarı mamulleri, çeşitli demir-çelik ürünleri, ferro alaşımları ithal edilmesi, Türkiye için bu malların ithalatında Ukrayna'nın çift haneli önemli bir paya sahip olması nedeniyle Türkiye için sorun yaratabilir. Gıda ve enerji fiyatlarındaki küresel artışın Türkiye'nin bütçe açığını daha da kötüleştirebileceği ve hâlihazırda yükselen yurt içi enflasyonu bozabileceği ve bunun da orta vadede Türk tüccarlarını etkileyebileceği öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı
• uluslararası ticaret
• ithalat
• ihracat
• Türkiye.

HOW WILL UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR AFFECT TURKISH TRADE?

Öz

The Ukraine-Russia war continues to threat international trade and global supply chains. This article analyses the impacts of Russia-Ukraine war on Turkey’s exports and imports. For this purpose, we analyzed 4-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Ukraine trade figures between 2016 and 2020 to reveal the prospective most affected sectors from the conflict. Our findings show that Turkey’s agricultural exports both to Russia and Ukraine will be affected negatively by the conflict. The exports of citrus fruits and tomatoes are expected to shrink. Other Turkish exporters which will feel the squeeze are the producers of motor vehicles, petroleum oils and machinery. Turkey may get into trouble in importing various iron and steel products, wrought aluminum, wheat, coal, natural gas, petroleum oils and ammonia from Russia if the sanctions would harm the ability of Russian traders doing business. Importing semi-finished products of iron, wheat, sunflower, maize or corn, various iron and steel products, ferro alloys from Ukraine may be problematic for Turkey as Ukraine takes a significant double-digit share in Turkey’s imports of these goods. It appears global rise in food and energy prices could exacerbate Turkey’s budget deficit and deteriorate already rising domestic inflation, which may in turn hit Turkish traders in the medium term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ukraine-Russia war
• international trade
• import
• export
• Turkey.

Kaynakça

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