THE EFFECT OF PRODUCER PRİCES ON CONSUMER PRİCES: EVİDENCES FROM TURKEY

Öz

In this study, the causality and cointegration relationship between PPI and CPI was examined in Turkey, using monthly data between the years 2005-2021. For this purpose, ARDL bounds test, Granger test and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test methods were used. According to the results of the analysis, there is a very strong cointegration relationship between PPI and CPI and the series move together. In fact, it is seen that a 1% increase in PPI in the long term leads to an increase of approximately 1.1% in CPI. Finally, according to the standard Granger and Toda-Yamamoto tests, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from PPI to CPI. These results show that PPI is an important determinant of CPI ib Turkey. In addition, according to these results, it is very important to consider the cost push factors that enable the transition from PPI to CPI in order to maintain the inflation targeting program.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• PPI
• CPI
• ARDL
• Toda-Yamamoto
• Granger Causality

ÜRETİCİ FİYATLARININ TÜKETİCİ FİYATLARINA ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE’DEN KANITLAR

Öz

Bu çalışmada ÜFE ve TÜFE arasında nedensellik ve eşbütünleşme ilişki 2005-2021 yılları arasında aylık veriler kullanarak Türkiye özelinde incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla ARDL sınır testi, Granger testi ve Toda-Yamamoto testi yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, ÜFE ve TÜFE arasında oldukça güçlü bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır ve seriler birlikte hareket etmektedir. Öyle ki, uzun dönemde ÜFE’de meydana gelen %1’lik bir artışın TÜFE’de yaklaşık %1.1 oranında bir artışa yol açtığı görülmektedir. Son olarak standart Granger ve Toda-Yamamoto testlerine göre ÜFE’den TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye’de ÜFE’nin, TÜFE’nin önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca bu sonuçlara göre enflasyon hedeflemesi programının sürdürülebilmesi için ÜFE’den TÜFE’ye geçişi sağlayan maliyet itici etkenlerin dikkate alınması önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ÜFE
• TÜFE
• ARDL
• Toda-Yamamoto
• Granger Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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