Verimlilik Çarpanı Olarak Beşeri Sermaye: Çin’in Uzun Vadeli Büyüme Sürecinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1990–2023 döneminde Çin'de fiziksel sermaye ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkide beşeri sermayenin düzenleyici rolünü incelemektedir. Neoklasik ve endojen büyüme teorilerinden geliştirilen genişletilmiş bir üretim fonksiyonu kullanılmakta olup, beşeri sermaye hem doğrudan bir üretim faktörü hem de fiziksel sermayenin verimliliğini artıran bir unsur olarak ele alınmaktadır. FMOLS, CCR, DOLS ve VECM yöntemlerinden elde edilen bulgular, beşeri sermayenin fiziksel sermayenin verimliliğini anlamlı ölçüde artırdığını göstermektedir. Etkileşim terimi, beşeri sermayedeki %1’lik bir artışın fiziksel sermayenin çıktıya katkısını %0.03–0.07 oranında yükselttiğini ortaya koymaktadır. VECM sonuçları güçlü bir uzun dönem ilişkisini doğrulamaktadır. Çalışma, altyapı yatırımları ile beşeri sermaye oluşumu arasında koordineli planlamanın gerekliliğine dikkat çekmektedir. Ayrıca, beşeri sermayenin “verimlilik çarpanı” rolünü ampirik olarak doğrulamakta ve üretim faktörleri arasındaki tamamlayıcılıkları değerlendirmeye yönelik bir çerçeve sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beşeri Sermaye
• Fiziki Sermaye
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Düzenleyici Etki
• Eşbütünleşme Analizi.

Human Capital as a Productivity Multiplier: Evidence from China's Long-Term Growth Trajectory

Öz

This study examines the moderating role of human capital in the relationship between physical capital and economic growth in China during the 1990–2023 period. An augmented production function developed from neoclassical and endogenous growth theories is employed, treating human capital both as a direct factor of production and as a factor enhancing physical capital efficiency. Findings from FMOLS, CCR, DOLS, and VECM methods show that human capital significantly increases physical capital's productivity. The interaction term reveals that a 1% increase in human capital raises physical capital's contribution to output by 0.03–0.07%. VECM results confirm a strong long-term relationship. The study highlights the need for coordinated planning between infrastructure investments and human capital formation. It empirically validates human capital as a “productivity multiplier” and proposes a framework for assessing factor complementarities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human Capital
• Physical Capital
• Economic Growth
• Moderating Effect
• Cointegration Analysis.

Kaynakça

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